Merck (MRK) Stock Rallies as Big Money Moves In and Dividend Rises

On Friday, 28 November 2025, Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) continued to trade near its 52‑week highs as a wave of fresh institutional filings, bullish research notes, and recent oncology approvals kept the spotlight firmly on the pharmaceutical giant.

The stock closed around $104.5 per share, after trading between roughly $104 and $105 on the day, leaving Merck’s market capitalization near $260 billion. ^[1] While the share price is up only about 2–3% over the past year, nearly all of that gain has arrived in the last month: one recent analysis notes a 20.8% jump over the past 30 days and about 7% in the last week alone. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into all the key MRK stock news hitting on 28 November 2025, and how it fits into the broader investment story.

Merck Stock Today: Near Highs with a Defensive Profile

According to real‑time and end‑of‑day data, Merck shares traded just below their recent one‑year high in the mid‑$105s, within a 52‑week range of roughly $73 to $106. ^[3]

Key snapshot metrics:

Market cap: ≈ $260 billion ^[4]
Trailing 12‑month revenue: ≈ $64 billion ^[5]
Net income (ttm): about $19 billion ^[6]
Trailing P/E: around 14x, with forward P/E near 12–13x ^[7]
Beta: roughly 0.3, making MRK significantly less volatile than the broader market ^[8]

That combination of low beta, steady profits, and a rising dividend helps explain why Merck is increasingly showing up on “defensive income” and “value” screens in late 2025.

November 28 Filings: Big Institutions Reposition Around Merck

A cluster of 13F‑related headlines dropped on 28 November 2025, offering a detailed look at how major funds were trading MRK during the second quarter.

Norges Bank Builds a Multibillion‑Dollar Stake

The most eye‑catching move came from Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund:

New position: ~36.1 million shares of MRK
Value: roughly $2.86 billion
Ownership: about 1.45% of Merck’s shares outstanding ^[9]

The filing underscores that at least one large, long‑term–oriented investor sees Merck’s recent weakness and Keytruda patent fears as a buying opportunity, especially after the company beat expectations in its latest quarter and raised guidance. ^[10]

Groupama, Skandinaviska and Boston Partners Trim Positions

At the same time, several large European managers modestly reduced their stakes:

Groupama Asset Management
- Cut its position by 9.2% in Q2, selling about 79,000 shares.
- Still holds 783,064 shares, valued near $61.94 million. ^[11]
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB publ (SEB)
- Reduced its stake by 4.8%, selling 93,149 shares.
- Retains roughly 1.83 million shares worth about $144.7 million, representing 0.07% of Merck and 0.6% of SEB’s own portfolio. ^[12]
Boston Partners
- Trimmed its MRK position by 1.2%, selling 9,142 shares in Q2.
- Now owns around 764,000 shares, worth about $60.5 million. ^[13]

These partial reductions look more like portfolio rebalancing than a wholesale vote of no confidence. In fact, MarketBeat’s institutional overview shows that roughly 76% of Merck’s shares remain in institutional and hedge‑fund hands, underscoring the stock’s blue‑chip status. ^[14]

Fresh Research on 28 November: “Excellence Across the Board” and Deep Value

Beyond filings, new and updated research reports on 28 November 2025 painted a broadly positive picture of MRK.

Seeking Alpha: Merck Shows “Excellence Across the Board”

A new Seeking Alpha article titled “Merck: Excellence Across The Board” argues that Merck’s resilient revenue mix, expanding profitability and disciplined capital allocation justify a bullish long‑term view. ^[15]

Key takeaways from that piece:

Merck’s reliance on Keytruda is balanced by meaningful contributions from vaccines, cardiovascular therapies, animal health and newer launches.
The platform nature of Keytruda — with dozens of indications across cancers — supports strong margins and cash flow even as the company prepares for future patent expiries.
Seeking Alpha’s quant system moved Merck to a “Strong Buy” rating earlier in November, reflecting improvements in value, growth and profitability factors. ^[16]

Simply Wall St: 21% Monthly Surge, Yet Still “Undervalued”

Simply Wall St published a same‑day piece titled “Is Merck’s 21% Price Surge Justified After Excitement Over Oncology Pipeline?”. It highlights that:

MRK is up 20.8% over the last month and 7% over the last week. ^[17]
Their discounted cash‑flow model suggests intrinsic value more than double the current share price, implying the stock could be trading at a roughly 50% discount if the assumptions prove correct. ^[18]
Merck’s P/E of about 13–14x is well below the broader pharma industry average near 20x, and below many large peers. ^[19]

The article balances that bullish view with reminders about patent risks and competitive pressures, but the overall tone is that MRK looks cheap relative to its earnings power and pipeline.

ChartMill & GuruFocus: A Dividend Powerhouse with Strong Margins

A ChartMill analysis updated on 28 November frames Merck as a standout dividend stock: ^[20]

Estimated dividend yield around the mid‑3% range, comfortably above the S&P 500 average (~2.4%).
A five‑year dividend growth rate near 7% annually, with no cuts in at least a decade.
Profit margin around 30% and operating margin in the high‑30s, placing Merck near the top of its industry on profitability. ^[21]

GuruFocus, in a separate note on 11 November, echoed that story, highlighting:

A 4.9% dividend hike from $0.81 to $0.85 per share quarterly.
TTM revenue of about $64.2 billion, operating margin mid‑30s and an Altman Z‑Score above 3.8, signalling low balance‑sheet risk. ^[22]

Earnings and Guidance: Q3 Beat, Raised Outlook

The new commentaries on 28 November build heavily on Merck’s strong third‑quarter report from late October.

Q3 2025 revenue: about $17.3 billion, up roughly 3.7–4% year over year. ^[23]
Q3 EPS:$2.58, around $0.22 above the $2.36 consensus estimate, a ~13% beat. ^[24]
Full‑year 2025 guidance: adjusted EPS of $8.93–$8.98, with analysts expecting about $9.01; revenue guidance in the $64.5–65 billion range. ^[25]

Growth remains heavily driven by Keytruda, which generated about $8.1 billion in Q3 sales, up roughly 10% year over year. ^[26] Newer launches are starting to matter too:

Winrevair, for pulmonary arterial hypertension, delivered around $360 million in Q3, implying more than $1 billion in annualized sales. ^[27]
Capvaxive, a newer pneumococcal vaccine, added about $244 million in the quarter. ^[28]
Animal health revenue rose about 9% to $1.6 billion, as pet spending and livestock volumes remain solid. ^[29]

Across the company, Merck now boasts more than 80 active clinical trials in its pipeline, spanning oncology, vaccines and specialty care. ^[30]

Pipeline & Regulatory Momentum: Keytruda Still in High Gear

While investors remain fixated on Keytruda’s 2028 U.S. patent cliff, 2025 has brought a steady stream of approvals and label expansions that help extend the franchise.

Subcutaneous Keytruda and Keytruda QLEX

Merck has introduced Keytruda QLEX, a subcutaneous formulation of pembrolizumab designed to be injected under the skin in minutes rather than a 30‑minute infusion. ^[31]

Regulators have moved quickly:

The European Medicines Agency recommended approval of a subcutaneous Keytruda formulation in September, with administration times as short as one minute every three weeks or two minutes every six weeks. ^[32]
The European Commission has since approved subcutaneous Keytruda for all adult indications already cleared in the EU. ^[33]

Strategically, multiple industry pieces point out that QLEX is intended in part to cushion the impact of the 2028 patent expiry, potentially making it harder for IV biosimilars to displace Merck’s own more convenient version. ^[34]

New Bladder Cancer Approval with Padcev

On 21 November 2025, the U.S. FDA approved Keytruda and Keytruda QLEX, each in combination with Padcev (enfortumab vedotin‑ejfv), as a perioperative treatment for adults with cisplatin‑ineligible muscle‑invasive bladder cancer — both before and after surgery. ^[35]

This builds on earlier approvals of the Keytruda‑Padcev combo in advanced urothelial carcinoma, reinforcing Merck’s position in urologic oncology and highlighting its strategy of pairing checkpoint inhibitors with antibody‑drug conjugates.

ADC Partnerships and Lung Cancer Data

Merck is also leveraging partnerships:

A TROP2‑targeting antibody‑drug conjugate developed with China’s Kelun‑Biotech showed improved progression‑free survival (PFS) when combined with Keytruda compared with Keytruda alone in PD‑L1–positive non‑small cell lung cancer, with an early but positive trend in overall survival. ^[36]

Taken together, these updates support the idea that Keytruda is evolving into a platform, not just a single product — critical as Merck approaches 2028.

Dividend, Cash Returns and Balance Sheet

For yield‑focused investors, Merck’s latest dividend news is a major part of the 2025 story.

The board recently raised the quarterly dividend from $0.81 to $0.85 per share, a 4.9% increase, payable in early January 2026 to shareholders of record in mid‑December. ^[37]
On an annualized basis, that’s $3.40 per share, translating to a dividend yield in the low‑to‑mid‑3% range at current prices. ^[38]
GuruFocus estimates Merck’s payout ratio at roughly 45% of earnings, leaving room for continued increases if earnings grow as expected. ^[39]

ChartMill and GuruFocus both flag Merck’s long history of uninterrupted dividends, at least ten years without a cut, and a five‑year dividend growth rate of around 7% annually. ^[40]

The balance sheet looks supportive: Merck carries moderate leverage (debt‑to‑equity well under 1x) and maintains a strong Altman Z‑Score above 3.8, indicating low default risk. ^[41]

Valuation and Street Sentiment

What Wall Street Thinks

Current analyst data show:

Consensus rating:“Buy” or “Moderate Buy” depending on the source. ^[42]
Average 12‑month price target: around $107–108, implying low‑single‑digit upside from current levels. ^[43]
Breakdown from MarketBeat: 2 Strong Buys, 6 Buys, 9 Holds and 1 Sell, with a consensus target near $107.06. ^[44]

Recent rating actions include:

Bank of America: raised its price target from $98 to $105 and reiterated a “Buy” rating on 17 November, citing strong Q3 results, growth in newer launches like Winrevair and Capvaxive, and the Cidara flu‑drug partnership as a logical fit for Merck’s infectious‑disease portfolio. ^[45]
Wells Fargo: upgraded MRK from “Equal Weight” to “Overweight” and hiked its target to $125, seeing more upside than the broader street consensus. ^[46]
Morgan Stanley: maintains an “Equal‑Weight” stance, nudging its target to $100 (from $98), reflecting a more cautious view around long‑term growth and patent risk. ^[47]

Value Metrics

On classic valuation metrics, Merck still screens as reasonable to inexpensive:

Trailing P/E: ≈ 13–14x; forward P/E: low‑teens. ^[48]
This sits below both the pharma industry average (~20x) and the broader S&P 500. ^[49]
Independent models such as Simply Wall St’s DCF suggest substantial upside if Merck can deliver its expected free‑cash‑flow growth — though those models depend heavily on optimistic long‑term assumptions. ^[50]

The Big Overhang: Keytruda Patent Cliff and Pricing Pressure

Despite today’s bullish headlines, long‑term investors still grapple with a familiar question: what happens when Keytruda loses exclusivity?

Key patents on Keytruda in the U.S. are expected to expire in 2028, with European protection stretching to about 2031. ^[51]
Keytruda generated roughly $29–30 billion in 2024 sales, accounting for around 40–46% of Merck’s total revenue. ^[52]
Under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, Merck expects Keytruda to be subject to Medicare price negotiations starting in 2026, with new prices likely effective from 2028. ^[53]

Merck has not been idle:

It has announced a $3 billion cost‑cutting initiative through 2027, aiming to free up cash for new product launches and pipeline investments ahead of the Keytruda cliff. ^[54]
The launch of Keytruda QLEX and the push into ADC combinations are clear attempts to differentiate Merck’s immuno‑oncology offering from future biosimilars. ^[55]

Nonetheless, analysts widely agree that earnings growth is likely to slow later in the decade as Keytruda faces biosimilar competition and government price caps. ^[56]

Other Risks: Gardasil Volatility and Macro Healthcare Pressures

Beyond oncology, investors should keep an eye on:

Gardasil demand, especially in China. Merck’s Q2 2025 results showed a sharp drop in Gardasil sales, partly due to weaker Chinese demand, contributing to a revenue miss and reinforcing the volatility of vaccine sales. ^[57]
Regulatory and reimbursement changes worldwide, particularly drug‑pricing reforms in the U.S. and Europe that could compress margins on both current and future blockbusters. ^[58]

These risks don’t negate Merck’s strengths, but they help explain why some institutions are trimming positions even as others are buying aggressively.

Bottom Line: What Today’s News Means for Merck Investors

The 28 November 2025 news flow around Merck & Co. paints a constructively bullish but nuanced picture:

Near‑term momentum is strong. The stock is trading near 52‑week highs after a ~21% monthly rally, fueled by a Q3 earnings beat, raised guidance, and a series of oncology approvals and launches. ^[59]
Big money is engaged. Norges Bank’s $2.9 billion entry contrasts with modest trims by several European managers, but overall institutional ownership remains high, signalling ongoing confidence in Merck as a core healthcare holding. ^[60]
Income profile is appealing. A fresh dividend hike, a yield in the mid‑3% range, strong margins and a conservative payout ratio position MRK as a defensive dividend grower. ^[61]
Valuation is reasonable. With a low‑teens P/E, healthy growth in newer launches and multiple third‑party models calling the stock “undervalued,” MRK looks more like a quality at a fair (or slightly cheap) price than a stretched momentum play. ^[62]

The major caveat for long‑term investors remains clear: Keytruda’s patent and pricing overhang after 2028. Everything Merck is doing — from launching QLEX to cutting costs and broadening its pipeline — is ultimately about managing that transition. ^[63]

For income‑oriented and defensive investors, the combination of yield, stability and pipeline momentum may justify a position, especially if they believe Merck can successfully diversify away from Keytruda over the next few years. For growth‑focused investors, the question is whether today’s oncology pipeline, newer cardiovascular and vaccine assets, and business‑development deals can offset the eventual revenue drag from the loss of Keytruda exclusivity.

Either way, the 28 November 2025 news cycle confirms that MRK remains front‑and‑center on institutional radars — and that the debate around its long‑term value is far from settled.

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