New York, January 9, 2026, 12:09 EST — Regular session
Merck & Co Inc shares were up about 0.4% at $111.41 on Friday as investors weighed a report that the drugmaker is in talks to buy cancer biotech Revolution Medicines in a deal valued at $28 billion to $32 billion. Revolution shares jumped nearly 16% in extended trading on Thursday after the Financial Times report, which said talks were not final and could still take weeks, with other large drugmakers still circling; Merck and Revolution did not respond to requests for comment. The potential acquisition would be the biggest in the sector since Pfizer’s $43 billion Seagen deal and would add Revolution’s late-stage RAS cancer drug candidate daraxonrasib; Mizuho analysts estimate Revolution’s RAS inhibitors could generate more than $10 billion in risk-adjusted sales by 2035 as Merck looks past Keytruda patent expiries later this decade. 1
The timing matters because Merck is already absorbing a fresh bolt-on deal. On Jan. 7, Merck said it completed a cash tender offer — an offer to buy shares directly from holders — for Cidara Therapeutics, paying $221.50 a share and adding an influenza candidate called CD388. 2
Merck said the Cidara transaction will lift 2026 research-and-development expense by about $9.0 billion and cut earnings per share by about $0.30 over the first 12 months. “The acquisition … strengthens and complements our expanding respiratory portfolio,” Chief Executive Robert M. Davis said. 2
Washington is another moving piece. Merck said changes to the U.S. childhood and adolescent immunization schedule should be grounded in “robust scientific evidence” after health agencies moved vaccines for rotavirus, influenza, meningococcal disease and hepatitis A from universally recommended to “shared clinical decision-making” — meaning families decide with a clinician instead of following a blanket recommendation. Bernstein analysts estimate the shift could cut about $2 billion a year from Merck revenue because of exposure to Gardasil and RotaTeq, the report said. 3
Merck also pointed to its own internal pipeline work in cancer. On Jan. 7 it said it started a Phase 3 trial of calderasib, an investigational drug that targets KRAS G12C — a mutation in a cancer-driving gene — in combination with KEYTRUDA QLEX for certain advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients. Merck’s Gregory Lubiniecki said the study will test a “chemotherapy-free combination that requires no intravenous access,” with about 675 patients expected to enroll. 4
Wolfe Research analyst Alexandria Hammond upgraded Merck to Outperform with a $135 price target, calling its five-year “revenue bridge” attractive and saying the stock is “poised for a breakout” after accretive dealmaking and ahead of catalysts. 5
If Merck does pursue Revolution, deal math may not be the only hurdle. Raymond James analyst Sean McCutcheon flagged potential regulatory focus on overlap between Merck’s calderasib and Revolution’s elironrasib, according to an Investing.com report. 6
There is plenty that can go wrong. The Revolution talks could still collapse or turn into a bidding fight, and paying up for pre-commercial oncology assets leaves little room for stumbles in late-stage data or review timelines. Vaccine policy, meanwhile, is politically charged and hard to model, and a sustained drop in uptake would hit one of Merck’s steadier cash engines.
The next hard date is Feb. 3, when Merck said it will report fourth-quarter and full-year results and host a 9 a.m. ET conference call. Investors are likely to press for a clearer 2026 spending picture, any update on the vaccine backdrop, and whether management addresses the Revolution report. 7
