NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:29 a.m. ET — Market closed (U.S. equities closed for the weekend)
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into the final trading week of 2025 with investors weighing a fresh burst of AI-deal headlines against familiar questions: how durable is the AI spending cycle, how intense will inference competition become, and what risks come with Nvidia’s expanding web of partnerships and investments.
With the market closed Sunday, NVDA’s next real “price discovery” moment comes when U.S. equity futures reopen Sunday evening and the cash session returns Monday morning.
Where Nvidia stock stands heading into the next session
Nvidia last traded around $190.53, following Friday’s session, with after-hours quotes near $190.08.
Wall Street’s year-end backdrop matters here: thin holiday liquidity can amplify moves, especially in mega-cap momentum names like Nvidia.
The headline driver: Nvidia’s Groq licensing-and-talent deal
The biggest catalyst in the last 48 hours remains market digestion of Nvidia’s unusual arrangement with AI-chip startup Groq—not a standard acquisition, but a non-exclusive licensing agreement paired with key executive and engineering hires.
Reuters reported that Nvidia agreed to license Groq’s inference technology, and that Groq founder Jonathan Ross and Groq President Sunny Madra are among those joining Nvidia, while Groq continues operating independently under new CEO Simon Edwards.
Why this matters for NVDA shareholders:
- Inference is the next battleground. Nvidia dominates AI training hardware, but inference (running trained models cheaply and quickly) is increasingly competitive—pressuring pricing power and potentially margins as specialized chips proliferate.
- It’s also about antitrust structure. The deal’s form (licensing + hires) fits a broader Big Tech trend of acquiring technology and talent without formal takeovers—often viewed as a way to reduce regulatory friction.
One widely circulated takeaway from the Reuters report came from Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, who flagged the regulatory angle. In a note cited by Reuters, Rasgon wrote that “Antitrust would seem to be the primary risk here” while the non-exclusive structure may preserve the “fiction of competition.” Reuters
New wrinkle Sunday: how the Groq payouts may work
Axios added fresh detail Sunday on the deal’s economics for Groq stakeholders, describing it as a roughly $20 billion arrangement that can generate distributions for many Groq shareholders even though “no equity is changing hands,” and noting that a large share of Groq employees are expected to join Nvidia. Axios
For NVDA investors, this reinforces the market’s interpretation that Nvidia is paying real money to secure strategic inference IP and specialized talent—just in a structure that stops short of a full merger.
The key bull vs. bear debate
Bull case: Nvidia is proactively defending its AI franchise as workloads shift toward inference. By pulling Groq’s know-how into its ecosystem, Nvidia can keep more of the inference stack compatible with its software and platform strategy, limiting customer drift toward rival accelerators.
Bear case: Some analysts have raised the risk that expanding into inference-specific architectures could pressure Nvidia’s industry-leading margins if pricing becomes more competitive or if Nvidia leans into lower-margin configurations to hold share.
Another narrative gaining traction: scrutiny of Nvidia’s deal-making model
Separate from Groq, a prominent weekend read from The Guardian spotlights investor concerns about the structure of some AI-era relationships—particularly arrangements likened to vendor-financing dynamics, where capital flows can be circular across the AI supply chain.
The Guardian quoted tech investor James Anderson saying the phrase “vendor financing” doesn’t make him feel comfortable, even while expressing admiration for Nvidia. The Guardian
The same report cited Forrester analyst Charlie Dai warning that the concern is “sustainability,” not legality, and that Nvidia could face exposure if AI growth slows. The Guardian
Investors don’t need to accept the most bearish framing to recognize the takeaway: sentiment around NVDA can swing quickly based on whether markets view these deals as smart ecosystem-building—or as risk transfer that could surface later in a downturn.
Wall Street targets and forecasts: where analysts see NVDA over the next year
On the Street, the tone remains broadly constructive:
- Benzinga data shows Nvidia’s consensus rating: Buy, with a consensus price target around $260.61, a high target of $352, and a low of $195.
- Benzinga also lists three of the most recent published ratings (dated Dec. 26, 2025) from:
- Vivek Arya (BofA Securities) — price target $275
- Tristan Gerra (Baird) — price target $275
- Stacy Rasgon (Bernstein) — price target $275
- The same Benzinga page attributes the Street-high $352 target to Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis.
The near-term market question is whether the next leg higher requires a new catalyst—such as evidence that inference competition is being contained—versus a simple year-end momentum bid.
What investors should know before the next session opens
Because the U.S. stock market is closed Sunday, NVDA investors should focus on three practical items before Monday:
1) Futures reopen Sunday evening — watch the tone into Monday
U.S. equity index futures typically reopen Sunday evening, which can shape Monday’s open, especially after headline-heavy weekends. CME materials list equity index futures trading hours beginning Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET (with an overnight session structure).
2) Monday kicks off a data-heavy, holiday-shaped week
Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar highlights several macro releases that can move rates and high-duration growth stocks—often including megacap tech and semis—such as Pending Home Sales (Monday), Case-Shiller (Tuesday), and December FOMC minutes (Tuesday), plus jobless claims (Wednesday).
Meanwhile, end-of-year scheduling matters:
- Stock markets are closed Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day, and investors still get a full trading day on Wednesday, Dec. 31 (while the bond market closes early).
- Kiplinger also flagged a generally quiet week for major earnings releases, which can leave markets more sensitive to macro and positioning flows.
3) Know the exact trading windows for any “headline reactions”
If new Groq-related details—or other Nvidia headlines—hit outside regular hours, they can still move NVDA in extended trading:
- Nasdaq notes pre-market trading is 4:00–9:30 a.m. ET and after-hours is 4:00–8:00 p.m. ET.
- NYSE materials similarly describe the core session as 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET with a late trading session running into the evening.
Bottom line for NVDA heading into Monday
Nvidia enters the next session with momentum tied to AI—yet the market is increasingly discriminating between training dominance and inference economics. The Groq licensing-and-talent deal is being read as a strategic move to protect Nvidia’s platform as inference becomes the bigger, more competitive slice of AI compute.
Into Monday, NVDA’s trade is likely to hinge on:
- whether investors view this deal structure as smart defense (platform reinforcement),
- or as a sign that inference pressure is real enough to force Nvidia into new architectures and potentially tougher margin math.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
