New York, January 11, 2026, 14:03 EST — Market closed.
- Merck shares slipped 0.4% on Friday, lagging the broader market’s record close.
- Reports said Merck is in talks to buy cancer biotech Revolution Medicines in a roughly $28 billion to $32 billion deal.
- Investors turn to the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference on Monday for any pipeline or deal signals.
Merck & Co., Inc. shares closed down 0.4% on Friday at $110.53, and traders head into Monday with takeover chatter back in the tape. The Wall Street Journal reported Merck is in talks to buy Revolution Medicines in a deal valued around $28 billion to $32 billion. 1
Why it matters now: Merck is staring at a Keytruda patent cliff starting in 2028 — when exclusivity ends and cheaper rivals can start to bite into sales. The Financial Times said big drugmakers, including Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb, are hunting for acquisitions as patents on drugs tied to nearly 12% of global pharma revenue expire in 2027-2028. 2
The timing is awkward, too. JPMorgan week often turns into a street fight for attention — guidance, pipelines, deal rumors, denials — and it sets the tone for the first stretch of the year.
The Financial Times said Revolution is valued at about $24 billion after its stock surge and is developing targeted cancer drugs aimed at pancreatic cancer and non-small cell lung cancer. It added that any tie-up would be one of the largest pre-commercial biotech deals, and not a done thing, with other pharma groups still in the mix. 3
Revolution’s shares last rose 10.7% to $118.64, underscoring how quickly takeover speculation gets priced into a small biotech. Merck, by contrast, drifted lower — a familiar pattern when investors start doing the math on a large cash outlay.
Merck has been spending anyway. After closing its Cidara Therapeutics tender offer this month, Chief Executive Robert M. Davis called it an example of Merck “investing where compelling science and value meet,” in a statement on the deal. 4
For MRK stock, the next question is simple: does Merck pay up again, and if so, what does it give up — balance-sheet flexibility, buybacks, or something else. A $28 billion to $32 billion ticket is big enough to move sentiment even if the company says nothing until it has to.
The broader tape is not fighting them, at least for now. The S&P 500 ended Friday at a record high, helped by chipmakers, after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report did little to change bets on rate cuts later this year. 5
But there’s a clear downside scenario. The Revolution talks could fall apart, another bidder could show up, or Merck could balk at the valuation — and MRK could still wear the “buyer’s remorse” discount without getting the asset. If Revolution’s upcoming clinical readouts disappoint, the logic for paying a takeover premium gets thin fast.
Investors will also watch whether Merck offers anything concrete on how it plans to defend Keytruda’s franchise — new formulations, combinations, earlier-line use — and what it thinks can fill the gap later. Even a small tweak in tone around business development can move the stock when the market is already leaning into the story.
Next up: Merck said Davis and research chief Dean Y. Li are scheduled for a fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Monday, Jan. 12, at 4:30 p.m. PST (7:30 p.m. EST). Any hint on deal appetite — or any refusal to play — is likely to be the first real catalyst for MRK when U.S. markets reopen. 6
