Merck Stock (MRK) Today – Keytruda Developments, Analyst Price Targets and 2025

Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is back in the spotlight as Wall Street raises price targets, new clinical data hit the tape, and a wave of product approvals and partnerships reshapes the outlook for its blockbuster cancer franchise Keytruda and the broader pipeline.

As of late trading on December 10, 2025, Merck stock changes hands around $97.27, up slightly on the day after yesterday’s pullback. ^[1] Over roughly the past month, shares have climbed about 20%, helped by positive trial results and optimism around newer products like Winrevair. ^[2]

This article walks through the latest news from December 10, 2025, the most recent earnings, analyst forecasts, and the key risks investors are focusing on — all in one place.

1. Merck Stock Snapshot on December 10, 2025

Price: ~$97.27 per share, after opening near $98.05 and trading between roughly $96.5 and $98.3 during the session.
Market value: Around $240–245 billion, depending on the exact intraday price. ^[3]
Valuation:
- Trailing P/E in the low teens (around 12–13x). ^[4]
- Forward P/E generally estimated in the high single to low double digits (roughly 9–11x), depending on the earnings model used. ^[5]
Dividend yield: About 3.4%–3.6% based on a new annualized dividend of $3.40 per share. ^[6]

Despite Tuesday’s ~2–2.6% drop (when Merck and JPMorgan were among the biggest drags on the Dow), MRK has significantly outperformed its early‑2025 levels. ^[7]

2. Fresh Headlines Driving MRK on December 10, 2025

2.1 Analyst price targets keep moving higher

Today’s most eye‑catching development: a series of upward revisions to Merck’s 12‑month price targets.

A new note compiled by MLQ.ai shows HSBC’s Rajesh Kumar initiating or reiterating a $120 price target on Merck today, implying roughly 24% upside from around $96–97 at the time of the call. ^[8]
On December 5, Guggenheim lifted its target from $104 to $122 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing higher probability‑adjusted revenue for Winrevair, Merck’s pulmonary hypertension drug acquired via Acceleron. ^[9]
Scotiabank (Louise Chen) raised its target from $105 to $120 and kept an Outperform rating on December 4. ^[10]
Goldman Sachs (Asad Haider) followed on December 2, boosting its target from $92 to $120 with a Strong Buy/Buy stance. ^[11]
Earlier this quarter, Wells Fargo (Mohit Bansal) upgraded Merck from Hold to Buy and lifted its target from $90 to $125, one of the highest on the Street. ^[12]

Across data providers, 30–36 analysts now cover Merck. Aggregators like StockAnalysis.com and MLQ.ai show:

Consensus rating:Buy overall (with many Buys, some Holds, and very few or no Sells). ^[13]
Average 12‑month price target: approximately $110–$112, implying ~14–15% upside from today’s price. ^[14]
Target range: roughly $90–$122 across different firms. ^[15]

At the same time, Zacks Investment Research tags Merck with a #3 (Hold) rank but highlights strong growth metrics and upward earnings revisions, underscoring that opinions are not uniformly bullish even as targets rise. ^[16]

2.2 Technical momentum and recent pullback

A Zacks article republished via Nasdaq points out that MRK has been trading above both its 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages since early November, a classic technical sign of sustained bullish momentum. ^[17]

That momentum was supported by:

Positive pipeline news (see below)
Strategic M&A, including the $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharma (COPD drug Ohtuvayre) and the $9.2 billion Cidara Therapeutics deal for an influenza candidate. ^[18]

However, on December 9 Merck’s share price fell about 2–2.6% to roughly $96.9, helping drag the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower by ~122 points — a reminder that after a strong run, the stock remains sensitive to risk‑off days and profit‑taking. ^[19]

2.3 “One major catalyst” behind the recent rally

A widely shared analysis (syndicated through Finviz/The Motley Fool) credits Winrevair as a key driver behind Merck’s roughly 20% gain over the last month. ^[20]

Key points from that coverage:

Winrevair (sotatercept for pulmonary arterial hypertension) generated about $360 million in Q3 sales, quickly trending toward “blockbuster” status. ^[21]
New phase 2 data in a rarer form of pulmonary hypertension (CpcPH due to HFpEF) point to potential label expansion, broadening the product’s revenue opportunity if phase 3 results confirm the benefit. ^[22]
Together with Capvaxive (pneumococcal vaccine) and other recent launches, Winrevair is central to Merck’s plan to offset the eventual loss of exclusivity (LOE) for Keytruda in 2028. ^[23]

The article concludes that, despite the looming Keytruda patent cliff, Merck’s combination of pipeline depth and dividend income makes it an appealing long‑term holding, especially for income‑oriented investors — though, of course, that’s one commentator’s view rather than a guarantee. ^[24]

2.4 Alzheimer’s and immuno‑oncology data

Recent news also highlights Merck’s efforts to diversify beyond oncology:

At the CTAD 2025 Alzheimer’s conference, Merck presented early‑stage data on MK‑2214, an antibody targeting pS413 tau. The FDA has granted Fast Track designation for MK‑2214, and phase 1 data are supporting dose selection for further trials. ^[25]
Merck also shared information on MK‑1167, a positive allosteric modulator aimed at α7 nicotinic cholinergic receptors, now in a phase 2 trial in mild‑to‑moderate Alzheimer’s disease. ^[26]
Separately, Medicenna’s MDNA11 has shown promising results when combined with Keytruda in advanced solid tumors, reinforcing the importance of Keytruda as a backbone immunotherapy partner. ^[27]

These updates don’t move near‑term earnings, but they matter for the long‑term “post‑Keytruda” narrative.

2.5 Keytruda biosimilar deal raises future competition questions

On December 9–10, several press releases announced that Zydus Lifesciences and Formycon AG have struck an exclusive licensing and supply deal for FYB206, a biosimilar candidate to Merck’s Keytruda, covering the U.S. and Canada. ^[28]

Highlights:

Formycon will complete development, file the biologics license application (BLA), and supply the biosimilar, while Zydus will handle commercialization in North America. ^[29]
The clinical program is nearing completion, with primary endpoint data expected in Q1 2026, after which an FDA filing is planned. ^[30]

This is an important medium‑ to long‑term risk for Merck: competitors are clearly preparing to attack the Keytruda franchise once patent protections fall away.

2.6 Animal Health: EXZOLT CATTLE‑CA1 gets conditional approval

On December 4, Merck Animal Health announced that the FDA granted conditional approval to EXZOLT CATTLE‑CA1, a topical fluralaner solution for the prevention and treatment of New World screwworm larvae and the treatment and control of cattle fever tick. ^[31]

While this is a niche product compared with Keytruda, it:

Extends Merck’s Animal Health portfolio,
Targets economically significant parasites for cattle producers, and
Demonstrates ongoing innovation in a segment that generated roughly $1.6 billion of Q3 revenue, up 9% year over year. ^[32]

2.7 Flows from institutional investors

Filings compiled by MarketBeat today show a mixed but generally supportive picture of institutional demand:

Stamos Capital Partners increased its MRK position by about 98.6% in Q2. ^[33]
Diadema Partners LP disclosed a new position in Merck during the same period. ^[34]
Intact Investment Management trimmed its stake by 8.1%, highlighting that not all institutions are adding at current levels. ^[35]

These moves are incremental rather than transformational, but they add color to the ownership story.

3. Q3 2025: Solid Beat and Higher Guidance

Merck’s third‑quarter 2025 results, reported on October 30, set the stage for much of the current optimism.

3.1 Headline numbers

According to Merck’s official release and subsequent analyst summaries, Q3 2025 delivered: ^[36]

Sales:$17.3 billion, up around 4% year over year.
GAAP EPS:$2.32, up roughly 87% from $1.24.
Non‑GAAP EPS:$2.58, up about 64% and comfortably ahead of consensus (~$2.35–2.36).
Strong performance was driven by oncology, cardio‑metabolic products, and Animal Health, partially offset by vaccine and virology headwinds.

Management simultaneously raised its full‑year 2025 outlook:

Sales guidance: now $64.5–65.0 billion, including a modest FX headwind. ^[37]
Non‑GAAP EPS: guided to the high‑$8s per share (~$8.93–8.98). ^[38]

3.2 Product‑level performance

Merck’s Q3 breakdown underscores both its strengths and vulnerabilities: ^[39]

Keytruda:
- Q3 sales of about $8.14 billion, up 10% year over year, driven by strong demand in metastatic cancers and expanding use in earlier‑stage indications such as non‑small cell lung cancer and breast cancer. ^[40]
Winrevair (pulmonary arterial hypertension):
- Sales of $360 million, more than doubling year over year, as U.S. uptake continues to ramp. ^[41]
Capvaxive (21‑valent pneumococcal vaccine):
- Quarterly sales of $244 million, up sharply from $47 million a year earlier, reflecting its recent U.S. launch. ^[42]
Gardasil/Gardasil 9 (HPV vaccine):
- Sales fell about 24% to $1.75 billion, largely due to weak demand and excess inventory in China, where Merck has temporarily halted shipments to allow its partner Zhifei to draw down stock. Management does not expect shipments to resume until at least the end of 2025, and Gardasil sales are expected to decline significantly versus 2024. ^[43]

Overall, Q3 confirmed that Merck’s growth engine is still very much powered by Keytruda, with a growing contribution from newer launches — but it also highlighted vaccine and regional vulnerabilities, especially in China and Japan.

4. Key Growth Drivers: Beyond Today’s Headline Price

4.1 Keytruda and Keytruda QLEX (subcutaneous)

Keytruda remains Merck’s crown jewel, but the company is actively building next‑generation franchises around it:

In September 2025, the FDA approved a new subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda, enabling more convenient under‑the‑skin administration compared with intravenous infusion and potentially improving clinic throughput and patient experience. ^[44]
In November 2025, the European Commission approved a subcutaneous Keytruda combination for certain cancers, granting Merck access to all EU member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. ^[45]
Also on November 21, 2025, the FDA approved Keytruda and Keytruda QLEX in combination with Padcev (an antibody‑drug conjugate) as perioperative treatment for cisplatin‑ineligible muscle‑invasive bladder cancer, the first PD‑1 inhibitor plus ADC regimen approved for this population. ^[46]

These moves are important because the subcutaneous formulation and new combination regimens carry their own patent protections and may extend the commercial life of Keytruda beyond the 2028 LOE of the original IV form, although biosimilar and competitive pressures will likely still intensify. ^[47]

4.2 Winrevair, Capvaxive, Ohtuvayre and other launches

As highlighted by Zacks and other analysts, Merck has significantly expanded its late‑stage pipeline and launch portfolio since 2021. ^[48]

Key near‑term growth drivers include:

Winrevair: pulmonary arterial hypertension drug acquired via Merck’s purchase of Acceleron; Q3 sales already in the hundreds of millions and supported by recent phase 2 data that could underpin new indications. ^[49]
Capvaxive: a 21‑valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that has posted a strong launch trajectory and could become a multibillion‑dollar product over time. ^[50]
Ohtuvayre: a first‑in‑class COPD maintenance treatment gained through the Verona Pharma acquisition; analysts see it as a potential multi‑billion‑dollar asset, strengthening Merck’s cardio‑pulmonary portfolio. ^[51]
Enflonsia (RSV antibody): approved in the U.S. in June 2025 and under EU review, adding to Merck’s respiratory and vaccine franchise. ^[52]
A new fixed‑dose HIV regimen (doravirine + islatravir) under FDA review, with a decision expected in April 2026. ^[53]

Merck estimates that its phase III pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, and the company expects to be able to launch around 20 new drugs and vaccines over the next several years, many with blockbuster potential. ^[54]

4.3 Neuroscience and cardiometabolic pipeline

Beyond oncology and vaccines, Merck is investing heavily in:

Alzheimer’s disease, with MK‑2214 (tau‑targeted antibody) and MK‑1167 (small‑molecule modulator), both of which had data presented at CTAD 2025 and are now moving through early‑ to mid‑stage development. ^[55]
Cardiometabolic disease, including MK‑0616, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor for hypercholesterolemia, and tulisokibart, a TL1A inhibitor for ulcerative colitis. Both sit among Merck’s high‑profile late‑stage candidates. ^[56]

For investors, the central question is whether this broadening pipeline can offset the inevitable erosion of Keytruda sales later in the decade — and if so, by how much and how quickly.

5. Dividends, Earnings and Valuation: What Forecasts Say

5.1 Dividend: a growing income stream

Merck’s Board declared a new quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share for the first quarter of 2026, payable on January 8, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 15, 2025. That’s a 4.9% increase from the previous $0.81 payment. ^[57]

At today’s price, this equates to an annualized yield around 3.4–3.6%, and sites such as Dividend.com and Koyfin note that Merck has raised its dividend for about 15 consecutive years, with a forward yield in the mid‑3% range and high marks for dividend safety. ^[58]

A recent Yahoo Finance piece even frames Merck as a potential buy ahead of its upcoming ex‑dividend date, although that is an opinion rather than investment advice. ^[59]

5.2 Earnings forecasts and growth expectations

Analyst consensus compiled by StockAnalysis and MLQ suggests: ^[60]

2025 revenue: around $65.4 billion, up roughly 2% over 2024.
2026 revenue: about $68.7 billion, implying ~5% growth.
2025 EPS (non‑GAAP basis): consensus near $9.06, up roughly 34% from 2024’s depressed reported figure.
2026 EPS: around $9.49, for nearly 5% expected growth.

Zacks notes that multiple analysts have raised their 2025 earnings estimates in the past two months, with its own consensus EPS estimate nudging higher to roughly $8.98, and that Merck has delivered an average earnings surprise of ~5% over recent quarters. ^[61]

5.3 Valuation in context

Putting the forecast together with the stock price:

Trailing P/E: about 12–13x, depending on the source and whether you use GAAP or adjusted earnings. ^[62]
Forward P/E: commonly cited in the 9–11x range, below many large‑cap pharma peers and well under healthcare’s broader forward P/E average (~17.5x, per Simply Wall St). ^[63]
PEG ratio (5‑year expected): near 1.0, indicating that earnings growth and valuation are roughly aligned in some models. ^[64]

Value‑oriented tools like ValueInvesting.io even argue that Merck is dramatically undervalued on a “fair value” basis (using a Peter Lynch‑style formula, they estimate fair value above $190, implying ~90% upside). ^[65] Those models depend heavily on assumptions, so they should be treated as illustrative rather than predictive, but they show how inexpensive Merck can look through certain lenses.

6. Major Risks Investors Are Watching

Despite the positive newsflow and rising price targets, Merck is not risk‑free. The main concerns can be grouped into a few themes:

6.1 Keytruda concentration and 2028 LOE

Keytruda accounted for roughly 46–50% of Merck’s pharmaceutical sales in recent years and more than $8 billion of Q3 2025 revenue alone. ^[66]

Analysts at Zacks and others repeatedly highlight that:

U.S. patent protection on IV Keytruda expires in 2028, setting up one of the biggest patent cliffs in pharma history. ^[67]
While the subcutaneous Keytruda QLEX and new indications add fresh layers of protection, they won’t completely eliminate biosimilar and competitive erosion. ^[68]
The Zydus/Formycon biosimilar partnership underscores how aggressively competitors are pursuing this franchise. ^[69]

The bull case is that Merck’s expanding pipeline (Winrevair, Capvaxive, Ohtuvayre, Alzheimer’s candidates, PCSK9 inhibitor MK‑0616, etc.) grows fast enough to bridge the gap; the bear case is that the gap is larger and more abrupt than expected.

6.2 Vaccine and regional headwinds (Gardasil and Asia)

Gardasil is Merck’s second‑largest product, and it’s under pressure:

Gardasil sales fell 40% in the first nine months of 2025, driven mainly by weak performance in China and slower demand in Japan. ^[70]
Merck stepped in and halted Gardasil shipments to its Chinese partner Zhifei until inventory normalizes, a process the company doesn’t expect to complete before the end of 2025. ^[71]

Vaccines like ProQuad, M‑M‑R II, Varivax and Vaxneuvance also reported softer sales in Q3, reflecting both competitive pressures and changing demand patterns in some markets. ^[72]

6.3 Generic erosion and pricing pressure

Merck continues to see:

Generic competition for older products (including diabetes therapies),
Pricing pressure in several vaccine and specialty categories, and
Ongoing regulatory and reimbursement risk in major markets, particularly the U.S. and Europe. ^[73]

These factors can weigh on margins even as new products ramp up.

6.4 Clinical, regulatory and M&A execution risk

Merck is actively pursuing:

Numerous late‑stage clinical programs (oncology, vaccines, Alzheimer’s, cardiometabolic disease),
Multiple M&A deals and partnerships (Acceleron/Winrevair, Verona/Ohtuvayre, Cidara, plus collaborations with Moderna and Daiichi Sankyo). ^[74]

Each comes with risks:

Trials can fail or be delayed.
Regulators can request additional data or restrict labels.
Acquisitions can underperform expectations or face integration challenges.

Analysts generally applaud Merck’s capital allocation strategy, but they also caution that the sheer number of moving parts increases execution risk.

7. Bottom Line: How MRK Looks as of December 10, 2025

Putting it all together, Merck’s story today looks something like this:

Positives

Strong current fundamentals: Q3 2025 beat expectations on both revenue and EPS, and management raised full‑year guidance. ^[75]
Powerful core franchise: Keytruda continues to post double‑digit growth with expanding earlier‑stage use and new subcutaneous/combination approvals. ^[76]
Rapidly broadening pipeline: Winrevair, Capvaxive, Ohtuvayre, Alzheimer’s candidates, PCSK9 and TL1A inhibitors, RSV antibodies and more give Merck multiple shots on goal beyond Keytruda. ^[77]
Attractive income profile: A newly increased $0.85 quarterly dividend with a yield in the mid‑3% range, backed by a long record of raises and strong free‑cash‑flow generation. ^[78]
Reasonable valuation: Compared with many large‑cap healthcare names, Merck trades on relatively modest forward multiples despite its scale and pipeline. ^[79]

Key uncertainties

Keytruda LOE after 2028 and the pace and magnitude of biosimilar competition. ^[80]
Gardasil and vaccine headwinds, particularly in China and Japan. ^[81]
Execution risk across a large and complex pipeline and M&A program. ^[82]

Analyst sentiment is broadly constructive — with consensus “Buy” ratings and average price targets in the low‑$110s implying mid‑teens percentage upside over the next 12 months — but not unanimous, as Zacks’ Hold ranking and some lingering worries about Keytruda’s patent cliff attest. ^[83]

For investors and traders watching MRK right now, the next checkpoints likely include:

The December 15, 2025 ex‑dividend date for the new $0.85 payout. ^[84]
Ongoing Keytruda QLEX uptake in the U.S. and EU. ^[85]
Updates on Winrevair label expansion, Alzheimer’s trials, and the broader late‑stage pipeline. ^[86]
Merck’s Q4 2025 earnings and updated 2026 guidance, which will test whether current analyst forecasts remain realistic.

References

Merck Stock (MRK) Today – Keytruda Developments, Analyst Price Targets and 2025–2026 Forecast