Meta Platforms (META) Stock News and Forecast for December 1, 2025: AI Capex Shock vs. Long‑Term Upside

As of December 1, 2025, Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) is trading around $648 per share, up roughly 2% on the day but still about 20–25% below its October highs after a sharp post‑earnings sell‑off. ^[1] The drop has not scared off Wall Street: most analysts still rate META a Buy or Strong Buy, with 12‑month price targets implying high‑20% upside from today’s level. ^[2]

This article rounds up the latest news, forecasts, and analyses dated December 1, 2025 (and immediately preceding days), then puts them into a clear narrative for investors following Meta’s stock.

Meta Stock Today: Price, Valuation and Recent Performance

Multiple institutional reports today put Meta’s opening price at $647.48, with a 52‑week range of $479.80 to $796.25. At that level, the company carries a market capitalization of about $1.63 trillion, a trailing P/E around 28.6, a PEG ratio near 1.3–1.8, and a beta of about 1.28. ^[3]

Key balance‑sheet and liquidity metrics remain robust:

Debt‑to‑equity: ~0.15
Current and quick ratio: ~1.98
50‑day moving average: about $683
200‑day moving average: about $707 ^[4]

An Investing.com analysis published this morning notes that META “trades near $647.95, up 2.26% on the day,” after shedding roughly a quarter of its value from October highs, and frames Meta as the most undervalued member of the “Magnificent 7” on a P/E basis. ^[5]

In other words: despite a scorching multi‑year rally, Meta is currently priced as a growth stock under pressure, not a bubble‑like AI darling.

What Triggered META’s 20% Pullback?

The sell‑off traces directly back to Q3 2025 earnings and guidance.

Q3 2025: Strong growth, ugly headline profit

Meta’s official Q3 2025 release showed: ^[6]

Revenue: $51.24 billion, up 26% year‑over‑year
Costs & expenses: $30.71 billion, up 32%
Income from operations: $20.54 billion, up 18%
Family daily active people (DAP): 3.54 billion, +8% YoY
Ad impressions: +14% YoY
Average price per ad: +10% YoY
Capital expenditures (Q3): $19.37 billion

Net income, however, collapsed to $2.71 billion, not because the business weakened, but because of a one‑time, non‑cash tax charge of $15.93 billion linked to new U.S. tax legislation (“One Big Beautiful Bill Act”). Excluding that charge, management says EPS would have been $7.25 versus a reported $1.05, and the effective tax rate about 14% rather than 87%. ^[7]

Saxo Bank’s equity strategy note captures the paradox: revenue and engagement are booming, but a mix of tax noise and ballooning capex makes the profit line look messy and raises questions about how quickly AI spending will pay off. ^[8]

The real shock: AI capex guidance for 2025–2026

The bigger concern for investors is not Q3, but what comes next. In its Q3 commentary Meta guided for: ^[9]

Q4 2025 revenue: $56–59 billion
Full‑year 2025 total expenses: $116–118 billion (22–24% YoY growth)
2025 capital expenditures: $70–72 billion, up from prior $66–72 billion

Management then warned that capital expenditures and total expenses will grow even faster in 2026, driven primarily by AI infrastructure (data centers, cloud, and depreciation) and a full year of compensation for newly hired AI talent. ^[10]

Commentary today from Investing.com and CoinCentral highlights analyst extrapolations that Meta’s AI infrastructure outlay in 2026 could approach $150 billion, a figure that startled markets and helped drive the roughly 20–25% slide in the stock after October’s highs. ^[11]

In short, the post‑earnings narrative is:

“Growth is great, margins are fine for now — but are we about to torch near‑term free cash flow to fund an AI arms race?”

Fresh Headlines on December 1, 2025

1. Smart money steps in: central banks and funds add META

Today’s filings round‑up from MarketBeat reads like a who’s who of institutional capital: ^[12]

Swiss National Bank (SNB)
- Increased its Meta stake by 7.8% in Q2 to 6.63 million shares, worth about $4.89 billion.
- META is now roughly 2.9% of SNB’s portfolio and its fifth‑largest holding.
ABN AMRO Bank N.V.
- Opened a new position of 10,433 shares valued around $7.7 million in Q2.
White Pine Capital LLC
- Lifted its META holdings by 64.5%, buying 1,750 shares to reach 4,464 shares worth about $3.3 million, making META about 1% of its portfolio.
Willis Investment Counsel
- Disclosed a new stake of 1,064 shares (roughly $785,000) and highlighted that large players like Vanguard and Kingstone Capital hold tens of millions of shares.
Martin Currie Ltd.
- Trimmed its Meta position modestly by 2.2%, selling 2,614 shares, but still holds over 116,000 shares (~$85.7 million) and keeps META as its 11th‑largest position.

Across these reports, institutional ownership is pegged around 79.9% of the float. ^[13]

Quiver Quant’s data adds color: over the last six months, 2,626 institutional investors increased their META holdings and 1,879 reduced them, showing active but not one‑sided positioning. ^[14]

2. Insider selling and political interest

Quiver also flags heavy insider selling: insiders have executed 349 open‑market sales and zero purchases in the last six months, including substantial disposals by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, CFO Susan Li, CTO Andrew Bosworth, and other senior executives. ^[15]

At the same time, U.S. lawmakers have traded META 22 times in six months, with 20 of those trades being purchases, suggesting some in Congress see the AI infrastructure build‑out as an opportunity rather than a red flag. ^[16]

Insider selling at a mega‑cap that has quadrupled in a few years is not unusual, but it does temper the “all‑in” bullish narrative and will remain a sentiment overhang.

3. AI chip pivot: reports Meta may spend billions on Google TPUs

One of the biggest storylines feeding into META’s capex narrative is its potential shift away from Nvidia toward Alphabet’s custom AI chips:

A Reuters report on November 25 says Meta is in talks with Alphabet’s Google to spend billions of dollars on Google’s tensor processing units (TPUs) for its data centers starting in 2027, and to rent TPUs from Google Cloud as early as next year. ^[17]
MarketBeat and other outlets have amplified the story under headlines like “Meta Platforms May Ditch NVIDIA Chips—Here’s Why Investors Care,” outlining how such a move could loosen Nvidia’s grip on AI infrastructure and diversify Meta’s supply chain. ^[18]
Morningstar’s markets brief today notes that Meta’s plan to use Alphabet’s TPUs has contributed to Alphabet’s recent outperformance and pressure on Nvidia’s stock, underlining how important Meta’s chip decisions are to the broader AI ecosystem. ^[19]

For Meta shareholders, the chip pivot is a double‑edge sword:

Bullish angle: cheaper or more efficient TPUs could lower long‑term AI unit costs, support margins, and reduce dependency on a single supplier.
Bearish angle: the transition adds execution risk and underscores just how massive the capex bill will be over the next several years.

4. Technical “buy” signals and quant models

Traders and quant models are also weighing in on META today:

DailyForex issued a piece explicitly titled a “Post‑Earnings Buying Signal” for December 1. Their fundamental snapshot notes META’s P/E of ~28.7 vs. ~34.9 for the Nasdaq‑100, calling the stock “inexpensive” for an AI leader. ^[20]
- They cite an average analyst price target of $841.42, and personally take a long position between $638–$650, targeting $796–$841 with stops around $575–$598, implying a risk/reward of about 2.5:1. ^[21]
Coincodex’s algorithmic forecast projects META will reach about $664.90 by December 28 and $689.71 by December 31, a short‑term gain of roughly 6–7%, while describing sentiment as “Neutral” with the Fear & Greed index in “Fear” territory. ^[22]
StockInvest’s models estimate a “fair opening price” for today at $643.83, very close to where shares actually opened, and provide a short‑term trading forecast rather than a long‑term valuation. ^[23]

These views emphasize that technical and quant communities are leaning cautiously bullish, treating the post‑earnings dip as an opportunity — but their time horizons are far shorter than long‑term investors.

5. Narrative pieces: “Mispriced growth” after a 20% drop

Several opinion and analysis pieces dated today reinforce the idea that META’s slide may be overdone:

Investing.com frames Meta as “one of the most mispriced large‑cap growth stocks of 2025”, arguing that the market is over‑reacting to the capex ramp while under‑appreciating rising ad efficiency and engagement. ^[24]
CoinCentral highlights that the stock is down about 20% from recent highs due to investor anxiety over a $150 billion AI spending plan, while “smart money” — large institutions like SNB and other funds — is adding on weakness. ^[25]

At the same time, more cautious takes (for example, Saxo’s “good, bad and big AI question” note) keep reminding investors that heavy capex must show up in ad yield, paid features, or higher conversion, or it will simply crowd out buybacks and compress margins. ^[26]

Wall Street Forecasts: How High Do Analysts See META Going?

Across major data aggregators, the message is remarkably consistent: analysts expect strong upside, but are adjusting targets down slightly to reflect the higher spending path.

Consensus targets and ratings

MarketBeat
- 50 analysts in the last 12 months
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Recommendation mix: 4 Strong Buy, 38 Buy, 8 Hold
- Average 12‑month price target: $823.93
- Target range: $605 (low) to $1,117 (high)
- Implied upside from ~$647: about 27% ^[27]
StockAnalysis
- 43 covering analysts
- Consensus: “Strong Buy”
- Average price target: $820.91
- Target range: $645 to $1,117
- Implied upside: roughly 26–27% ^[28]
DailyForex / technical commentary
- Cites an average analyst target of $841.42, implying 30%+ upside from current levels. ^[29]
24/7 Wall St
- Puts the median one‑year price target at $838.14 (about 32% upside) and labels META a “Strong Buy” based on 42 analysts (35 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell).
- Their in‑house model goes further, projecting $875.46 in 2025 and longer‑term scenarios that reach $1,216.82 by 2030, assuming sustained revenue and EPS growth. ^[30]
Quiver Quant
- Tracks 33 recent analyst price targets and reports a median around $840, with firms like Cantor, Piper Sandler, RBC, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo mostly in the $720–$900 range. ^[31]
Barchart / Wedbush
- Notes that Wedbush Securities has a $920 price target and recently added META to its “Best Ideas” list, implying ~50% upside from mid‑$600s levels. ^[32]

Taken together, most credible forecasts cluster in the low‑$800s, with a few aggressive calls near or above $900. The broad implication: the Street expects Meta’s AI and ad engines to deliver enough growth to justify today’s capex – but not without volatility.

Meta’s Fundamentals: Ads Still Pay for the AI Future

Beneath the capex drama, the underlying business remains powerful.

Ads remain the cash machine

Meta’s Q3 2025 numbers underline that the Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, Threads) still generates the lion’s share of value: ^[33]

Revenue growth: +26% YoY to $51.24 billion
Ad impressions: +14%
Average price per ad: +10%
Family daily active people: 3.54 billion (+8%)
Family ARPU: rising faster than user growth, suggesting better monetization

Saxo’s analysis notes that Reality Labs (VR/AR, hardware) remains a drag, with Q3 losses around $4.4 billion, but the high‑margin ad business more than offsets it — for now. ^[34]

AI is already lifting performance

Meta isn’t just pouring money into AI in the abstract. Recent commentary from Meta and third‑party analysts highlight measurable benefits: ^[35]

Ad ranking and targeting increasingly rely on unified, large‑scale AI models across Facebook, Instagram, and Ads.
Q3 saw higher time spent on core apps (for example, Facebook and Threads engagement both up, with Instagram video time surging).
AI‑powered ad tools now direct tens of billions of dollars in annual ad spend, improving conversion and pricing power.

Meta’s own guidance explicitly ties its 2026 revenue ambitions to continued improvements in AI models and AI‑driven products rather than purely user growth. ^[36]

Cash generation and capital return

Despite reduced free cash flow in Q3 due to the investment surge, the business still generates enormous operating cash:

Operating cash flow: ~$30 billion in Q3
Free cash flow: ~$10.6 billion in Q3 on a non‑tax‑adjusted basis, though this quarter is distorted by capex and taxes
Cash & marketable securities: $44.45 billion as of September 30, 2025
Q3 also saw $3.16 billion in share repurchases and $1.33 billion in dividends and equivalents. ^[37]

Meta’s balance sheet gives it room to make mistakes on capex — but not unlimited room, especially if regulatory or macro shocks hit at the same time.

Key Risks Investors Are Watching

Recent earnings releases and analyst notes highlight several core risk buckets: ^[38]

AI Capex Execution Risk
- 2025 capex of $70–72 billion, and management signaling even higher spending in 2026, means billions in depreciation and cloud costs still to come.
- If AI‑driven monetization (higher ad yield, new paid tools, business messaging, etc.) lags behind, operating leverage could stall.
Regulatory and Reputational Headwinds
- Meta explicitly warns of “increasing headwinds in the EU and U.S.”, flagging its Less Personalized Ads offering and youth‑related lawsuits as potential sources of material revenue or legal impact as early as this quarter and into 2026. ^[39]
- Scam ads, deepfakes, and political content remain constant pressure points.
Reality Labs Drag
- VR/AR investments continue to lose billions per year, with uncertain near‑term payoff. If the market loses faith in the “option value” of the metaverse, investors may demand stricter discipline on Reality Labs’ spending. ^[40]
Insider Selling and Governance Perception
- Heavy insider selling, particularly by top executives, may feed a “they’re cashing out at the top” narrative even if sales are pre‑planned. ^[41]
Competitive Landscape
- TikTok, YouTube, and other platforms still compete fiercely for user attention and ad dollars.
- In AI, Meta must now navigate complex partnerships and competition with Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft and others while ramping its own custom silicon efforts. ^[42]

META Stock Outlook: Scenarios Into 2026 (Not Financial Advice)

Given the current data, investors might think in terms of scenarios rather than point forecasts. The numbers below are illustrative, not predictions or recommendations.

Bullish scenario

AI and chip investments translate quickly into revenue: higher ad prices, new AI‑powered ad formats, paid assistants for businesses, and improved commerce tools.
Regulatory outcomes in the EU and U.S. land as manageable fines and tweaks, not existential changes to the ad model.
Reality Labs spending is paced more carefully, and losses narrow as hardware sales scale.
In this world, Street targets in the $840–$900+ range may prove conservative, and Wedbush‑style targets around $920 could become realistic over a 12–24 month horizon. ^[43]

Base scenario

Revenue growth slows modestly but remains in the mid‑teens as ads stay strong and AI tools improve effectiveness.
AI capex does compress near‑term free cash flow, but margins stabilize as revenue catches up.
Regulatory hits are significant but not catastrophic.
In this scenario, the stock gravitates toward current consensus — call it the low‑to‑mid-$800s over time — with volatility around that trend. ^[44]

Bearish scenario

Capex continues climbing, but monetization fails to keep pace, so returns on invested capital disappoint.
EU or U.S. regulators impose rules that meaningfully restrict targeted advertising, hitting ARPU and ad load.
Reality Labs remains a large, persistent cash drain and distracts management.
In this setup, META could trade sideways or revisit the lower end of its 52‑week range as investors demand higher risk premiums and lower multiples. ^[45]

None of these scenarios is guaranteed. They are frameworks to think about how today’s AI infrastructure megaproject might play out in the financials.

Bottom Line: What Today’s News Means for Meta Stock

Putting it all together:

The business is strong: Q3 showed robust revenue, engagement, and ad monetization; Meta’s social platforms remain a global advertising powerhouse. ^[46]
The stock is in a valuation tug‑of‑war:
- Bears focus on massive AI capex, potential margin compression, and regulatory uncertainty. ^[47]
- Bulls highlight 20–25% share price compression from the highs, P/E and EV/EBITDA discounts to mega‑cap peers, and persistent Strong/Moderate Buy ratings with ~25–35% implied upside. ^[48]
Smart money is split but engaged: central banks and many institutions are adding, some funds are trimming, insiders are selling, and political buyers are dipping in via personal portfolios. ^[49]
Short‑term traders see a bounce setup: technical and quant models lean cautiously bullish, seeing the post‑earnings sell‑off as a potential buy‑the‑dip opportunity — with stops clearly defined. ^[50]

For investors, META on December 1, 2025 is not a simple story of “cheap” or “expensive”. It is a high‑quality, cash‑rich ad business that has chosen to front‑load an enormous AI investment cycle. Whether today’s news flow becomes the start of a new up‑leg or just another step in a choppy consolidation will depend on:

How quickly AI lifts ad yield and new revenue lines
How disciplined management is with Reality Labs and capex
How severe regulatory outcomes turn out to be

Nothing here is personal financial advice; if you’re considering investing in Meta Platforms, it’s important to weigh these factors against your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio mix, or to speak with a qualified financial adviser.