Published: November 29, 2025
Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) stock has just logged its strongest week in months, even as investors remain sharply divided over Mark Zuckerberg’s AI spending binge and a fresh wave of regulatory risk hitting WhatsApp and the company’s broader AI strategy.
On Friday, November 28, Meta shares climbed about 2.3% to close near $647.95, putting the company’s market value around $1.6 trillion. The stock traded between roughly $635.50 and $648.05 during the session, with volume below its recent average. [1] Data cited by MarketWatch show that the move capped a roughly 9% weekly gain for Meta—its best week since May and one of the standout advances among Big Tech names as traders bet more heavily on a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in December. [2]
Even after the bounce, though, META sits well below its 52‑week high near $796 and is still digesting the brutal post‑earnings sell‑off triggered by record AI infrastructure spending and a one‑time tax charge that crushed reported profit. [3]
Key takeaways for META stock on November 29, 2025
- Price & size: META closed around $647.95 on November 28, up 2.26% on the day, with a market cap near $1.6 trillion and a trailing P/E ratio in the high‑20s. [4]
- Fundamentals: Q3 2025 delivered record revenue of about $51.2 billion (up 26% year‑on‑year) and strong non‑GAAP earnings, but GAAP net income fell 83% after a $15.9 billion one‑off tax charge linked to new U.S. corporate tax rules. [5]
- Spending shock: Meta raised 2025 capex guidance to $70–72 billion and expects even higher spending in 2026, largely for AI data centers and compute. Total 2025 expenses are forecast at $116–118 billion. [6]
- Regulatory heat: Russia has threatened a full nationwide ban on WhatsApp over non‑compliance with local law, while Italy’s antitrust regulator has broadened a probe into Meta’s use of AI tools inside WhatsApp. [7]
- Mixed signals: Street price targets average around $823.93, implying notable upside, and some valuation models see META roughly 20–25% undervalued. [8] Technical models, however, have just downgraded META to a short‑term “sell candidate” despite the recent rebound. [9]
Meta stock today: rebound after an AI‑driven reset
Friday’s rally extended a recovery that began around November 20, when META bounced from a short‑term “pivot bottom.” From that low, the stock has gained nearly 10% in under two weeks. [10]
Technical analysts at StockInvest now place META around the middle of a “wide and falling” short‑term trend channel, with price near $648 and key volume support clustered around $637.71. Despite near‑term buy signals from momentum indicators, their model projects that, if the broader downtrend stays intact, META could slide about 20% over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between roughly $460 and $555 at that horizon. [11]
That cautious technical stance contrasts with the broader macro backdrop. MarketWatch reports that, for the week ending November 28, the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.9% and the S&P 500 rose 3.7%, while Meta and Microsoft posted their largest weekly gains since May as investors rotated back into mega‑cap tech and AI. [12]
In market terms: the tape is healing, but chart‑based models aren’t ready to call the all‑clear.
Q3 2025: record revenue, tax shock and the AI infrastructure bill
The current debate around META stock really starts with its October 29 Q3 2025 earnings.
On the headline numbers, Meta’s quarter looked extremely strong:
- Revenue: about $51.24 billion, up 26% year‑on‑year and ahead of Wall Street estimates.
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$7.25, beating consensus by almost 10%.
- Operating margin: about 40%, down only modestly from 43% a year earlier. [13]
The ugly part was below the line. Meta booked a one‑time, non‑cash income tax charge of roughly $15.93 billion related to new U.S. corporate tax legislation (the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”), which slammed GAAP net income down to $2.7 billion from $15.7 billion the prior year and dragged GAAP EPS to $1.05. [14]
Once that accounting hit is stripped out, the underlying operating engine is still humming. Zacks’ recap, carried by Finviz, notes that: [15]
- Meta’s Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and others) generated about $50.77 billion in revenue, up 26% year‑on‑year and roughly 99% of the total.
- Advertising revenue rose around 25–26%, with double‑digit growth in the United States & Canada, Europe, Asia‑Pacific and the rest of the world.
- Ad impressions increased 14%, while average price per ad climbed 10%.
User engagement remains a core strength. Daily active people across the Family of Apps reached about 3.54 billion, with time spent on Facebook and Threads rising and video consumption on Instagram up more than 30% year‑on‑year. Reels’ revenue run‑rate is already above $50 billion annually, and more than a billion people use Meta AI each month. [16]
In short, the legacy ad machine is working. The controversy is what Meta is doing with the cash it generates.
AI spending spree: front‑loading the future, pressuring today’s margins
The other big headline from Q3 was Meta’s willingness to spend heavily on AI infrastructure.
Management raised 2025 capital‑expenditure guidance to $70–72 billion, up from $66–72 billion previously, and signaled that capex will climb again in 2026, potentially north of $100 billion as the company builds out data centers and compute for Llama, recommendation algorithms and AI‑powered products across its ecosystem. [17]
Saxo Bank’s analysis points out that total expenses for 2025 are now expected at $116–118 billion, with expense growth running ahead of revenue growth as AI‑related depreciation, cloud costs and compensation swell. [18]
The Q3 figures already reflect that shift:
- Costs and expenses: about $30.7 billion, up 32% year‑on‑year.
- Capital expenditures: roughly $19.4 billion in the quarter, more than double last year’s level. [19]
Commentators are split on what it all means:
- Benzinga argues that Meta’s AI capex “broke the stock” in the short term—shares dropped about 17% in the month following earnings—but notes that the pullback drove META’s forward P/E down toward 19.7x, its lowest level since the 2022 market bottom, even as analysts still model 15%‑plus earnings growth over the next three years. [20]
- Saxo characterises the quarter as “growth on paper, pain in the profit line,” stressing that heavy AI and hardware investment must translate into higher ad yield, paid features or better conversion; otherwise, it simply compresses margins and crowds out shareholder returns like buybacks. [21]
Meta’s own framing is clear: spend now to secure AI leadership later. For shareholders, the open question is whether that front‑loaded bill ultimately drives enough incremental free cash flow to justify the risk.
Regulatory squeeze: WhatsApp in Russia and AI scrutiny in Europe
While investors debate capex, regulators have introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty around Meta’s messaging and AI ambitions.
Russia threatens full WhatsApp ban
On November 28, Russia’s state communications watchdog Roskomnadzor warned that it may completely block WhatsApp nationwide if the platform continues to violate Russian law. [22]
The threat comes after Russia restricted some WhatsApp calling functions in August, accusing the Meta‑owned service and Telegram of refusing to provide data requested for fraud and terrorism investigations. Roskomnadzor said the messaging app is not complying with requirements “aimed at preventing and stopping crimes” and signaled that existing restrictions “will continue to be expanded” if that does not change. [23]
Financially, Russia is a relatively small piece of Meta’s global revenue, and the company’s social platforms are already heavily constrained there. Strategically, though, the episode underscores the geopolitical and regulatory risks surrounding encrypted messaging, data localisation and law‑enforcement access—issues that will recur in other jurisdictions.
Italy broadens antitrust probe into Meta’s AI tools in WhatsApp
In Europe, Italy’s antitrust regulator AGCM has expanded an ongoing investigation into whether Meta is abusing a dominant position through the integration of AI tools into WhatsApp Business Solutions and its AI assistant. [24]
The watchdog is scrutinising new WhatsApp Business terms introduced in October and the way Meta’s AI interaction features are tied into the app. Regulators fear that such integration could limit competition in AI chatbot services, restrict innovation, or reduce technical progress if rivals are effectively locked out of Meta’s massive user base.
Combined with EU scrutiny of personalised advertising and the early implementation of the EU AI Act, these developments highlight how closely Meta’s AI roadmap and regulatory risk profile are now intertwined. [25]
What Wall Street, models and quants think META is worth
Despite the spending shock and regulatory noise, the sell‑side remains broadly positive on Meta.
Analyst ratings and price targets
MarketBeat data indicate that: [26]
- META carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, with dozens of Buy or Strong Buy ratings and only a small group of Hold recommendations.
- The average 12‑month price target is about $823.93, implying roughly 27% upside from Friday’s close.
- Wedbush has added Meta to its “Best Ideas” list, reiterating an Outperform rating and a $920 price target, even as several other firms trimmed their targets from around $900 to the low‑$800s after Q3.
Those target cuts reflect a more conservative view on margins and AI capex, but not a collapse in confidence about Meta’s long‑term earnings power.
Fundamental valuation models: “undervalued” camp
Independent valuation work is, if anything, even more upbeat:
- Simply Wall St’s discounted cash‑flow analysis puts Meta’s fair value at about $837.54 per share, implying that META trades at roughly a 24% discount to intrinsic value based on projected future cash flows. [27]
- That same analysis notes Meta’s current P/E near 27–28x, which sits above the broader media/online‑services industry average but below the average for a subset of high‑growth peers. Their proprietary “fair ratio” suggests that, given Meta’s growth and margin profile, the multiple could justifiably be higher. [28]
- Benzinga’s late‑November snapshot highlighted that, at the trough of the post‑earnings sell‑off, Meta’s forward P/E fell under 20x, levels usually associated with slower‑growth, mature blue chips rather than a platform still expected to grow earnings at a mid‑teens rate. [29]
The bullish valuation case is straightforward: if Meta can convert its AI and hardware investments into durable cash‑flow growth, today’s multiple looks conservative rather than aggressive.
Technicals and ownership: caution beneath the rally
Quant screens and capital flows tell a more cautious story.
Short‑term technical downgrade
StockInvest’s latest update downgraded META from “Hold/Accumulate” to “Sell candidate” following Friday’s session. Their key observations include: [30]
- The long‑term moving average still sits above the short‑term average, producing a general sell signal despite the recent bounce.
- Price remains inside a broad, downward‑sloping trend, with resistance expected near $664 and support near $615–638.
- Volume fell as price rose on Friday, creating a bearish divergence that may signal weakening upside momentum.
The service’s base case is for continued choppy trading with a negative three‑month outlook, barring a decisive break above long‑term resistance.
Institutions trimming and adding
Fresh 13F‑based reports compiled by MarketBeat show mixed institutional activity: [31]
- Johnson Financial Group LLC slashed its META position by 55.7% in Q2, ending the period with 502 shares worth roughly $371,000.
- Dorsey & Whitney Trust Co. LLC, by contrast, increased its stake by 16.6% to 21,183 shares valued at around $15.6 million, making META roughly 0.8% of its portfolio and its 24th‑largest holding.
- Across the register, about 79.9% of Meta’s stock is held by institutions, while insiders still own a double‑digit percentage even after selling nearly 41,959 shares (≈$26.8 million) over the last quarter.
That mix—high institutional ownership, ongoing insider selling and diverging fund flows—helps explain why sentiment around META feels twitchy rather than euphoric despite the big weekly gain.
What could move META stock next?
Looking beyond this week’s surge, a few big levers are likely to drive Meta Platforms’ share price into early 2026:
- Macro and rates: The latest Big Tech rally is tightly linked to rising odds of a December Fed rate cut, which supports long‑duration growth and AI plays. Any surprise on inflation, employment or Fed communication could quickly reverse that dynamic. [32]
- AI monetisation proof points: Investors will want hard evidence that AI‑enhanced ads, assistants and business messaging are lifting ad pricing, conversion and time spent, not just capex. Reels’ $50‑billion‑plus run‑rate and Meta AI’s scale are early positives, but the monetisation story needs to keep maturing. [33]
- Capex and expense guidance revisions: Management has already nudged up full‑year expense and capex ranges and warned of faster cost growth in 2026. Any hint of capex moderation—or, conversely, another big step‑up—could move the stock sharply. [34]
- Regulatory outcomes: Whether Russia follows through on a full WhatsApp ban, how Italy’s antitrust case evolves and how the EU’s AI Act is enforced across Meta’s products will shape both its growth runway and compliance bill. [35]
- Next earnings report: StockInvest currently lists Meta’s next earnings date around February 4, 2026, which will be the next full checkpoint on user trends, AI spending, ad demand and free‑cash‑flow trajectory. [36]
Bottom line
As of November 29, 2025, META is a classic high‑conviction battleground stock:
- The core ad business is strong, with record revenue, robust user engagement and hefty non‑GAAP earnings.
- Meta is spending aggressively to win the AI arms race, pushing capex and expenses to levels that compress reported profits and invite scepticism.
- Regulatory pressure is rising, from Russia’s threats to ban WhatsApp to European concerns about AI tools and data practices.
- Markets are split: analyst targets and DCF models argue for meaningful upside, while technical systems flash caution and some institutions quietly derisk.
Whether Meta Platforms’ stock from here looks like a bargain or a value trap ultimately depends on your answers to a few questions: How quickly will AI investment translate into cash? How heavy will the regulatory drag become? And how long will investors tolerate depressed GAAP earnings in exchange for a shot at AI dominance?
Whatever your stance, META has moved firmly into the category of stocks where both the bull and bear case are grounded in real numbers, not just vibes.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. investor.atmeta.com, 6. www.home.saxo, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. stockinvest.us, 10. stockinvest.us, 11. stockinvest.us, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. investor.atmeta.com, 14. investor.atmeta.com, 15. finviz.com, 16. finviz.com, 17. www.home.saxo, 18. www.home.saxo, 19. www.home.saxo, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.home.saxo, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.home.saxo, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. simplywall.st, 28. simplywall.st, 29. www.benzinga.com, 30. stockinvest.us, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.marketwatch.com, 33. www.home.saxo, 34. finviz.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. stockinvest.us
