NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:30 a.m. ET — Market closed
Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) heads into the final week of 2025 with investors balancing two familiar forces: a year-end, low-liquidity market that’s hovering near record territory—and a steady drumbeat of regulation and youth-safety scrutiny aimed squarely at the business models that power Big Tech’s advertising engines.
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, META shares last traded on Friday and will next face price discovery when trading resumes on Monday, Dec. 29. Below is what moved the narrative over the last 48 hours, where META stock stands, and the key items investors may want on their radar before the next session.
META stock price today: where shares left off Friday
META stock was last quoted around $663.29, with Friday’s session ranging roughly between $661.39 and $668.70. Meta’s market capitalization stands near $1.85 trillion, and the stock is valued at roughly 31x earnings based on the latest market data snapshot.
That “Friday close into a weekend” setup matters because end-of-year trading conditions can amplify headline sensitivity: fewer market participants and thinner liquidity can sometimes make regulatory or company-specific developments feel more impactful in price action than they might in a fully staffed January tape.
The broader market backdrop: year-end trading near highs
Friday’s post-Christmas session was muted, with major U.S. indexes finishing only slightly lower after a strong run. Reuters described the day as a light-volume “catching our breath” session as markets moved into the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window—often watched as a sentiment gauge into the new year. Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick told Reuters the market still had “upward bias” potential during the period, while cautioning investors to expect volatility and “bad headlines” in 2026. [1]
For Meta shareholders, that’s a useful framing: the macro tape has been supportive for mega-cap tech, but stock-picking headlines still matter—especially when they touch ad targeting, youth engagement, and product design.
The last 24–48 hours: the headlines investors are digesting
1) New York warning-label law targets “addictive” social media features
One of the most direct, near-term regulatory headlines for Meta came out of New York.
A new New York law will require warning labels about potential mental-health harms for younger users on social media platforms featuring mechanisms such as infinite scroll, auto-play, and algorithmic feeds. Reuters reported the measure allows the state attorney general to seek civil penalties of up to $5,000 per violation, and the law applies to conduct occurring partly or wholly in New York. [2]
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office said the legislation (S4505/A5346) requires warning labels for platforms offering “addictive feeds,” autoplay, or infinite scroll, and that warnings must be shown when a young user first encounters the feature and periodically thereafter, without the ability to bypass the warnings. [3]
TechCrunch added additional detail on the bill’s scope, describing “addictive social media platforms” as those where features like push notifications, autoplay, infinite scroll, and like counts are significant, while noting the attorney general can grant exceptions if features serve a valid, non-engagement-prolonging purpose. [4]
Why this matters for META stock: Meta’s core apps—Instagram and Facebook in particular—have historically relied on algorithmic ranking, recommendation systems, and engagement loops that regulators increasingly view through a youth-safety lens. Even if the operational impact is initially “UI and compliance,” the market often treats these laws as signals of broader momentum: more states, more restrictions, and more legal risk.
2) Leak highlights Instagram’s internal push to “win back teens”
A second major narrative driver: youth engagement strategy.
The Washington Post reported that leaked internal documents describe a multi-year Instagram strategy to recapture teen users in developed markets, including internal direction from Instagram head Adam Mosseri to prioritize teens even ahead of Threads in planning. The report described initiatives ranging from marketing and influencer pushes to algorithm tweaks, alongside internal acknowledgments of teen engagement declines and competitive pressure from TikTok and YouTube. [5]
The Post also cited a Meta spokesman, Ryan Daniels, saying Meta rejects the implication that these efforts conflict with safety work, pointing to teen-focused protections and tools that the company says were designed to improve outcomes for teens and parents. [6]
Why this matters for META stock: Investors tend to like growth signals (winning teens can support long-duration ad demand), but the market also discounts youth-growth narratives when they increase the probability of regulatory action, litigation, or forced product changes. With New York’s warning-label law landing at the same time, the “teens + product design” topic is back in the spotlight.
What Wall Street is debating: AI upside vs. spend and compliance risk
Meta’s own guidance: strong ad engine, but heavier AI infrastructure spending
Meta’s most recent quarterly update (Q3 2025) remains the anchor for how analysts model the stock into 2026.
In its Q3 results, Meta reported $51.24 billion in revenue (up 26% year over year), with ad impressions up 14% and the average price per ad up 10%. [7]
In the CFO outlook commentary, Meta guided Q4 2025 revenue to $56–$59 billion and raised expected 2025 capital expenditures (including finance leases) to $70–$72 billion. Crucially for valuation, the company said it expects capital expenditure dollar growth to be “notably larger” in 2026 than in 2025, and that total expenses are expected to grow at a significantly faster rate in 2026—driven primarily by infrastructure. Meta also explicitly flagged ongoing legal and regulatory matters that could materially affect the business. [8]
This is the crux of the bull/bear debate: Meta’s AI-led ad improvements can drive top-line growth, but the spending path—and the legal/regulatory risk—can compress multiples if the market worries about margins or forced changes to ad targeting and engagement loops.
Recent analysis: AI-powered ads and engagement are still the bullish core
A Zacks analysis published via Nasdaq on Dec. 26 argued that Meta’s AI infusion into recommendations and ad ranking is supporting engagement and advertising performance. The piece highlighted Meta’s AI-driven ad tooling and referenced the company’s Q4 revenue outlook and spending plans, while also noting competitive pressure from Alphabet and Amazon in digital advertising. [9]
Fresh forecast: Trefis sees a path to $850, but flags regulatory risk
A Trefis note dated Dec. 27 projected a $850 value case for Meta (roughly 28% upside from the level cited in its analysis), pointing to catalysts such as AI-driven advertising acceleration, expanded monetization of messaging, and a Reality Labs pivot toward wearable AI. The same analysis also listed “existential regulatory threat” among key risks. [10]
A named analyst view: “opportunistic buyers” thesis into the new year
Earlier this week, Barron’s reported that Baird analyst Colin Sebastian reiterated an Outperform view and encouraged investors to be “opportunistic buyers” into the new year, even while trimming a price target slightly (as reported by Barron’s). [11]
(For reference, Meta’s investor relations site lists Baird’s Colin A. Sebastian among firms that cover the company, along with many other major banks and research shops.) [12]
If markets are closed: what investors should watch before Monday’s session
With the next regular session set for Monday, Dec. 29, here are the practical items investors may want to monitor before the bell:
- Regulatory headline risk may be “front-and-center” at the open
The New York warning-label law is the kind of headline that can influence not just Meta, but peers like Snap and Alphabet (YouTube) as investors try to handicap how quickly other states might follow—and what it implies about product design constraints and compliance costs. [13] - Youth engagement vs. youth safety: expect follow-up coverage
The leaked-documents reporting on Instagram’s teen strategy can generate secondary waves: commentary from policymakers, child-safety advocates, and legal stakeholders, plus any response from Meta leadership. That can move sentiment even without immediate, quantifiable financial impact. [14] - Year-end tape dynamics: thin liquidity can exaggerate moves
Reuters characterized Friday as a light-volume session. When liquidity is thin, opening moves—especially in mega-caps—can overshoot and then mean-revert once participation normalizes in early January. [15] - Keep the “AI spend path” in view, not just the headlines
Whether investors stay constructive on META often comes back to the same question: do the AI-driven ad gains and new monetization opportunities outpace the capex and opex ramp? Meta’s own guidance is explicit that 2026 spending growth is expected to be notably larger, and management has warned about legal and regulatory headwinds. [16] - Know the next catalyst window: earnings timing is approaching
Several market calendars currently estimate Meta’s next earnings report in early February 2026 (dates can change until Meta formally confirms). Nasdaq’s earnings calendar lists 02/04/2026 as an estimate, and Zacks also points to Feb. 4, 2026 as the expected next release. [17]
Bottom line for META stock into Monday
Meta enters Monday’s session with fundamentals still defined by a powerful, AI-enhanced advertising engine—but the weekend’s headline stack reinforces what investors have been pricing for months: youth safety, product design constraints, and regulation are not “background noise” for the stock; they’re part of the valuation debate.
If the broader market’s year-end tone remains constructive, META can trade with the mega-cap tide. But in the near term, investors should expect sensitivity to any additional regulatory updates, follow-on reporting about Instagram’s teen engagement push, and new commentary about how compliance requirements could reshape engagement features that help drive Meta’s ad inventory.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.governor.ny.gov, 4. techcrunch.com, 5. www.washingtonpost.com, 6. www.washingtonpost.com, 7. investor.atmeta.com, 8. investor.atmeta.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.trefis.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. investor.atmeta.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.washingtonpost.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. investor.atmeta.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com
