New York time check: It is 4:32 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025.
Market status: The core U.S. equity session (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET) has just closed, with extended-hours trading still active. [1]
Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) is finishing a thin, post-Christmas trading day with investors balancing two powerful forces: AI-driven ad momentum on the one hand, and rising AI infrastructure costs plus mounting regulatory pressure on the other. Those themes have shaped META’s tape for months—and they remain front and center as 2025 heads into its final trading sessions.
META stock price today (latest quote after the closing bell)
As of the latest available trade shortly after the close, Meta Platforms stock was about $663.29, down $4.37 (‑0.66%) versus the prior close. The session’s range ran roughly $661.39 to $668.70 on volume near 6.95 million shares, giving Meta a market cap of about $1.84 trillion and a P/E around 31.5 (per the same quote snapshot).
Why it matters right now: With the core session over, price moves from here can reflect lower liquidity and headline sensitivity—especially relevant for a stock like Meta that often reacts to regulatory and policy developments after-hours.
The broader market backdrop: quiet “day after Christmas” trade near record territory
Wall Street ended the day only slightly lower in light-volume post-holiday trading, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each down modestly—snapping a five-session rally, but still keeping the major indexes near record levels. Reuters described the session as lacking catalysts, part of the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window that runs into early January. [2]
That context matters for META because mega-cap tech and communication-services names have been key leaders in 2025, and year-end positioning can amplify moves—up or down—without much company-specific news.
What’s driving Meta’s story into year-end: ad strength vs. AI spending
1) Meta’s core engine is still advertising—AI is increasingly the multiplier
In its Q3 2025 results, Meta reported revenue of $51.24 billion (+26% YoY) and an operating margin of 40%. The company highlighted growth in ad impressions (+14% YoY) and average price per ad (+10% YoY), alongside Family daily active people (DAP) of 3.54 billion (+8% YoY). [3]
Those metrics underpin the bullish view: Meta’s scale plus AI-driven ranking/targeting improvements can keep ad performance strong even as competition for attention remains intense.
2) The cost side is the headline risk—and it’s not going away in 2026
In the same Q3 update, Meta lifted its 2025 capital expenditures outlook to $70–$72 billion and signaled that 2026 capex dollar growth is expected to be “notably larger” than 2025, with expenses also projected to rise faster—driven primarily by infrastructure and AI talent. [4]
Reuters has repeatedly framed the market’s concern succinctly: investors want proof that enormous AI buildouts will translate into durable returns, not just higher depreciation and margin pressure. In an October report, Reuters noted Meta’s forecast for larger 2026 capital expenses and described how the spending outlook weighed on sentiment despite strong underlying revenue growth. [5]
3) A one-time tax charge distorted GAAP earnings—but investors are looking through it
Meta’s Q3 release also detailed a one-time, non-cash income tax charge of $15.93 billion, tied to U.S. tax changes referenced in its filing, which pushed the reported effective tax rate sharply higher. Excluding that charge, Meta said net income would have been $18.64 billion and diluted EPS $7.25 (vs. reported net income of $2.71 billion and EPS $1.05). [6]
For many investors, the bigger issue is less the one-time charge and more the forward path for capex, margins, and AI monetization.
The news cycle hitting Meta right now: regulation, safety, and platform competition
New York’s mental-health warning label law adds pressure on “addictive feed” features
On December 26, Reuters reported that New York enacted a law requiring warning labels for social media platforms with features like infinite scroll, autoplay, and algorithmic feeds, citing concerns about harms to young users’ mental health. The law allows the state attorney general to seek civil penalties (Reuters reported up to $5,000 per violation). [7]
Why investors care: even if the near-term financial impact is uncertain, this is part of a broader trend—more U.S. states scrutinizing the product mechanics that drive engagement on platforms like Instagram and Facebook.
Italy’s antitrust watchdog targets WhatsApp terms affecting rival AI chatbots
Reuters reported December 24 that Italy’s antitrust authority ordered Meta to suspend WhatsApp contractual terms that could exclude competing AI chatbots, as it investigates suspected abuse of dominance; a parallel EU probe was also referenced. Meta said it would appeal. [8]
Why investors care: Meta wants WhatsApp to be a bigger business (including monetization and AI integration), but regulators appear increasingly willing to treat messaging platforms as critical infrastructure—raising the risk of constraints on product strategy.
Reuters investigation: scam ads and reputational/regulatory risk
A November Reuters investigation reported that internal documents indicated Meta projected meaningful revenue tied to ads for scams and banned goods, and estimated its platforms show users billions of scam ads daily. [9]
Why investors care: ad integrity issues can become a regulatory problem, a reputation problem, and potentially an advertiser trust problem—each of which can influence valuation multiples even when topline growth remains solid.
Meta’s AI personalization plans highlight a new privacy flashpoint
Reuters previously reported that Meta would begin using people’s interactions with its generative AI tools to help personalize content and advertising across apps starting December 16, with notifications going out earlier and no opt-out for those who use Meta AI, and with rollout exclusions including the EU and UK. [10]
Why investors care: Meta is trying to make AI a monetizable engagement layer across the “Family of Apps,” but privacy boundaries—and how regulators view them—can shape how quickly that strategy scales.
Instagram’s teen strategy is back in the spotlight
The Washington Post reported December 26 that leaked internal documents showed Instagram pushed a multi-year strategy focused on winning back teen users—amid lawsuits and scrutiny about teen safety and engagement. [11]
Why investors care: teens influence long-run platform relevance. But efforts to re-accelerate teen engagement may also intensify policy, litigation, and brand risk.
META stock forecast: what Wall Street analysts are saying now
Analyst views on Meta into 2026 broadly split into a familiar debate:
- Bull case: Meta’s ad machine plus AI-driven performance can keep revenue growth strong and expand new surfaces (WhatsApp, Threads, AI assistants, wearables).
- Bear case: AI infrastructure spend compresses margins, while regulators and lawsuits raise execution and compliance costs.
Here are several widely cited recent calls and price targets:
- Baird (Colin Sebastian) reiterated Outperform and called for being “opportunistic buyers,” trimming the price target slightly to $815 (per Barron’s). [12]
- Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight stance while lowering its price target to $750 from $820 (reported via Yahoo Finance). [13]
- Wedbush maintained Outperform while cutting its target to $880 from $920 (reported via Yahoo Finance). [14]
- Rosenblatt reiterated a Buy with a $1,117 target (reported by Nasdaq.com’s coverage of analyst activity). [15]
- Consensus snapshots vary by data source; Yahoo Finance recently displayed a 1-year target estimate around $837. [16]
How to read these targets: The spread is wide because analysts are effectively making different bets on (1) how efficiently Meta turns AI spending into measurable revenue lift, and (2) how much regulatory friction changes the long-term economics of engagement.
What investors should know now that the market is closed
Because it’s after 4:00 p.m. ET, what happens next for META often comes down to headlines, liquidity, and positioning more than fundamentals.
1) Extended-hours trading is open—but it behaves differently
Major U.S. venues outline that after-hours trading typically runs 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET and can have less liquidity and faster price moves; Nasdaq advises the use of limit orders. [17]
The SEC also warns about extended-hours risks such as wider spreads, lower liquidity, and greater volatility. [18]
2) Know what could move META before the next regular session
With only a few trading days left in the year, attention often shifts to:
- Any incremental regulatory developments (state actions, EU/Italy decisions tied to WhatsApp/AI, youth-safety litigation headlines). [19]
- AI spending narratives across Big Tech, where markets can punish capex surprises even when revenue is strong. [20]
- Year-end positioning and thin liquidity, which Reuters noted can exaggerate moves during holiday periods. [21]
3) Watch the calendar: the next major catalyst is earnings season
Meta has not always confirmed dates far in advance, but multiple market calendars currently point to an estimated late-January 2026 earnings window (often shown around Jan. 28, 2026, after market close), subject to confirmation by the company. [22]
Before that report, investors typically focus on:
- Any capex guidance updates and commentary on the pace of AI datacenter buildout [23]
- Signals on WhatsApp and Threads monetization and whether those products meaningfully diversify revenue beyond core ads [24]
- Progress on AI product adoption and monetization strategies (including personalization plans and any privacy-related pushback) [25]
Bull case vs. bear case: a practical checklist for META stock into 2026
Reasons bulls stay constructive on Meta stock
- Scale and engagement remain enormous (billions of daily active people across the Family of Apps). [26]
- Ad pricing and impressions are still rising, supporting revenue growth. [27]
- Management expects continued strong ad revenue growth, even while acknowledging Reality Labs lumpiness. [28]
- Some analysts argue sentiment has been overly pessimistic after the capex reset, pointing to upside potential if the narrative stabilizes in early 2026. [29]
Key risks bears highlight
- Capex and expense growth could pressure margins for longer than the market expects. [30]
- Regulatory constraints may limit product design, personalization, and platform “gatekeeping,” particularly in messaging and youth-focused areas. [31]
- Ad integrity and safety controversies can trigger investigations, fines, or advertiser caution. [32]
- Competition for teens and time spent remains intense; leaked-document reporting suggests Instagram is still working to reverse teen softness in key markets. [33]
Bottom line for Meta stock heading into the next session
At the end of this post-Christmas Friday, META is modestly lower near $663 with the market closing the session in a cautious, low-volume “catch-your-breath” mode near record highs. [34]
For investors, the near-term question isn’t whether Meta can sell ads—it can. The question is whether Meta can keep proving that its AI buildout and personalization strategy translate into durable profit growth without triggering a regulatory backlash that materially reshapes how its platforms operate.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. investor.atmeta.com, 4. investor.atmeta.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. investor.atmeta.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.washingtonpost.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. finance.yahoo.com, 14. finance.yahoo.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. finance.yahoo.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. finance.yahoo.com, 23. investor.atmeta.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. investor.atmeta.com, 27. investor.atmeta.com, 28. investor.atmeta.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. investor.atmeta.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.washingtonpost.com, 34. www.reuters.com
