Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is back in the market’s spotlight today after a powerful rebound driven by three big storylines: aggressive cuts to its loss‑making metaverse unit, fresh optimism around its AI strategy, and a new cash dividend that pushed the stock sharply higher in Thursday’s session.
At the same time, Meta faces new regulatory pressure in Europe over WhatsApp’s AI policies and ongoing scrutiny of its huge AI infrastructure spend — leaving investors to weigh a cleaner profit story against very real risks.
This article pulls together all the major Meta stock news, forecasts and analyses as of December 4, 2025, and is intended purely as information, not investment advice.
Meta Stock Today: Price Action and Valuation Snapshot
By mid‑afternoon on Thursday, Meta stock was trading in the $660–$670 range, up roughly 3–4% on the day, following a strong gap‑up at the open. That move lifted Meta’s market capitalization to about $1.7 trillion and made it one of the best‑performing “Magnificent 7” names in today’s session. [1]
Key snapshot metrics from today’s trading and recent data:
- Price range today (intraday): roughly $660–$676 after opening around $676 vs a prior close of $639.60. [2]
- 1‑year range: about $479.80 (52‑week low) to $796.25 (52‑week high), highlighting how deep the recent pullback was from this year’s peak. [3]
- Valuation: trailing P/E around 29–30, with price‑to‑sales near 9 and price‑to‑book just under 9, depending on the data provider. [4]
- Volatility: beta around 1.3–1.5, meaning Meta typically swings more than the broader market. [5]
From a technical standpoint, Meta has rebounded sharply after a 27% correction from all‑time highs near $795 to November lows around $581. A technical review from OANDA’s MarketPulse notes that after today’s 6% gap‑up, META is now testing a key resistance zone in the $660–$680 band, with the 50‑week moving average overhead acting as an important hurdle for confirming a renewed uptrend. [6]
1. Why Meta Stock Is Popping: Metaverse Cuts and Cost Discipline
The immediate catalyst for today’s rally is a series of reports — first highlighted by Bloomberg and echoed by several financial outlets — that Meta plans to cut the 2026 budget for its Reality Labs/metaverse division by roughly 30%, targeting projects like Horizon Worlds and its VR hardware group (Quest) and potentially triggering layoffs early next year. [7]
Investor reaction has been decisively positive:
- An analysis on Investing.com notes Meta shares jumped about 4% as traders welcomed tighter cost controls in the metaverse unit, with the stock trading between $660 and $676 this morning and up from a prior close of $639.60. [8]
- Business Insider estimates that the move to scale back metaverse spending added roughly $69 billion to Meta’s market value, pushing its market cap to about $1.68 trillion as investors re‑priced the stock on improved margin prospects. [9]
For years, Reality Labs has been the biggest sticking point in Meta’s story. According to eMarketer and other sources, the unit has racked up more than $70 billion in operating losses since late 2020, with relatively small revenue contributions. [10]
Today’s news signals a decisive shift:
- Metaverse spending is being reined in, not abandoned, with focus expected to shift toward narrower, higher‑conviction bets.
- More of Meta’s enormous cash flow can be redirected toward AI infrastructure, core apps and shareholder returns, rather than subsidizing open‑ended VR experiments.
That narrative — “AI first, leaner metaverse” — is exactly what many institutional investors had been hoping to see.
2. Reality Labs: From $70 Billion Sinkhole to Targeted Investment
Meta’s latest quarterly results underline why Reality Labs became a lightning rod:
- In Q3 2025, Reality Labs generated about $470 million of revenue but posted a $4.4 billion operating loss, reinforcing its status as a significant drag on group profitability. [11]
Industry commentary today frames the planned 30% budget cut as:
- A “fiscal discipline” move after a multiyear spending spree that failed to deliver mass adoption of VR or Horizon Worlds. [12]
- A recognition that even for a company of Meta’s scale, multi‑billion‑dollar annual losses need clearer payoffs, especially when attractive AI opportunities are competing for capital. [13]
Analysts at Mizuho estimate that cutting metaverse spending by up to 30% could add roughly $2 per share to Meta’s 2026 EPS forecast, currently around $29.50, because Reality Labs’ losses are dragging earnings by nearly $5.85 per share today. [14]
In short: Reality Labs is still expected to lose money in 2026, but smaller losses plus any signs of genuine product‑market fit (especially in AR glasses) could flip the narrative from “sinkhole” to “manageable side bet.”
3. The New Growth Engine: AI, Smart Glasses and Massive Data Centers
While the metaverse takes a step back, AI remains full‑throttle:
Record revenue, but AI costs are huge
In its Q3 2025 results, Meta reported:
- Revenue of $51.24 billion, up 26% year‑over‑year, driven largely by stronger ad pricing and impressions across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. [15]
- Operating margin of 40%, down slightly from 43% a year earlier as expenses climbed faster than sales. [16]
- Net income plunged 83% to $2.71 billion, but that was due to a one‑time, non‑cash $15.93 billion tax charge tied to new U.S. corporate tax rules; excluding that, EPS would have been $7.25 instead of the reported $1.05. [17]
On the spending side:
- Meta now expects 2025 capital expenditures of $70–$72 billion, up from prior guidance and focused primarily on AI data centers and compute infrastructure. [18]
- Management has warned that capital spending will be “notably larger” again in 2026 as it aggressively builds out AI capacity, including for its Llama models, Meta AI assistant and other gen‑AI features across its apps. [19]
CEO Mark Zuckerberg has explicitly said he wants to “front‑load” AI infrastructure investment so Meta is prepared even in the most optimistic scenarios for AI progress — declaring a long‑term goal of achieving superintelligence and pledging to spend “hundreds of billions of dollars” on data centers over time. [20]
Data, engagement and AI monetization
Some key operational highlights help explain why Meta believes this spend is justified:
- 3.54 billion people use one of Meta’s apps daily, and ad impressions across the Family of Apps grew 14%, with the average ad price up 10% year‑over‑year in Q3. [21]
- Instagram Reels has become a powerhouse, with video time spent on Instagram up over 30% year‑over‑year and Reels now at an annualized revenue run‑rate above $50 billion, according to Saxo’s analysis of the results. [22]
- Meta says over 1 billion people use Meta AI every month, generating tens of billions of images since launch — a scale that underscores why compute demand keeps exploding. [23]
Today’s metaverse cuts are therefore less about retreating from the future and more about funding the future that’s working now: AI‑enhanced ads, short‑form video, messaging and AI‑powered wearables like Ray‑Ban smart glasses. [24]
4. AI Needs Power: Chips and Electricity Trading
AI doesn’t just require chips; it requires massive amounts of electricity.
Recent reports show Meta:
- Is in talks with Google to spend billions of dollars on Alphabet’s TPU chips for use in Meta’s data centers starting around 2027, a move that would diversify its dependence away from Nvidia. [25]
- Has applied, alongside Microsoft, for federal approval to trade electricity, allowing the company to sign long‑term power contracts for new plants and resell surplus power on wholesale markets. [26]
According to energy‑policy reports, Meta’s data‑center growth is already pushing utilities to plan multiple new power plants in regions such as Louisiana, highlighting how AI infrastructure spending is increasingly intertwined with energy markets and grid reliability. [27]
In other words, Meta’s AI pivot is no longer just a software story — it’s an infrastructure and energy story as well.
5. New Dividend: A Small Payout with Big Signaling Power
Another key headline today: Meta has announced a new quarterly dividend of $0.525 per share, payable on December 23 to shareholders of record as of December 15, with the stock trading ex‑dividend on the same date. [28]
The payout equates to:
- $2.10 per share annualized, or roughly a 0.3% yield at current prices.
- A dividend payout ratio under 10% of earnings, leaving ample room for buybacks and reinvestment. [29]
MarketBeat notes that the dividend news helped META gap up from $639.60 to around $676 at the open, with shares last seen up over 4% on heavy volume. [30]
While the yield is small, the signal is big: management is telling the market that it believes Meta’s cash generation is durable enough to support both massive AI capex and direct cash returns to shareholders.
6. Regulation Check: Big Win in the U.S., New Headache in Europe
Today’s bullish narrative is tempered by ongoing regulatory risk.
U.S. FTC antitrust case: a major overhang removed
In mid‑November, Meta won a landmark U.S. antitrust case brought by the Federal Trade Commission, which had sought to unwind the acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. A federal judge ruled that Meta does not hold a social‑networking monopoly and dismissed the government’s attempt to force a breakup. [31]
This victory:
- Removes the most existential structural threat to Meta’s business in the U.S.
- Sets an important precedent for other Big Tech firms facing aggressive merger challenges.
Several analyses today — including trader‑focused coverage from StocksToTrade — frame this as a “game‑changer” that gives Meta more freedom to pursue acquisitions and partnerships in AI and hardware. [32]
New EU antitrust probe over WhatsApp AI access
Barely two weeks after that win, however, the European Union has opened a fresh antitrust investigation into Meta over its new policy governing AI providers’ access to WhatsApp. [33]
Key points from early reports:
- The policy, adopted in October and set to apply fully by mid‑January 2026, restricts third‑party AI services from using a WhatsApp business API, while Meta’s own “Meta AI” assistant retains access.
- Regulators are concerned this could block rival AI firms from reaching users on WhatsApp, potentially violating EU competition rules.
- Italy is running a parallel probe into whether Meta abused its market position by imposing these terms without sufficient consent. [34]
Despite the headlines, the immediate market reaction has been muted; pre‑market trade saw META up modestly as investors judged any eventual fine or remedy as manageable relative to Meta’s earnings power. One Barron’s piece reminded readers that prior EU fines in the low‑hundreds‑of‑millions of dollars have been a rounding error compared with quarterly profits. [35]
Still, the probe underscores a familiar theme: regulation remains a structural risk, especially as Meta pushes deeper into AI and messaging monetization.
7. Wall Street’s View: Meta Stock Forecasts into 2026
Across major data platforms, Wall Street remains strongly bullish on Meta, even after its huge post‑pandemic run.
12‑month price targets
Different aggregators vary slightly, but they broadly tell the same story:
- Average 12‑month price target: generally in the $820–$840 range, implying roughly 25–30% upside from current levels. [36]
- High estimate: around $1,117 per share.
- Low estimate: typically between $610 and $685, still above or near today’s price. [37]
- Rating: most sites classify the consensus as “Strong Buy” or “Moderate/Outperform Buy”, with dozens of buy ratings and relatively few holds, and virtually no sell ratings. [38]
Gurufocus, for example, cites a consensus target price near $836 with a recommendation score corresponding to “strong buy.” [39]
Earnings forecasts
Analysts see Meta’s earnings climbing steadily over the next few years:
- 2025 EPS: around $25.5 on average.
- 2026 EPS: roughly $30.7, with a wide range of $20.8 to $42.0.
- 2027 EPS: consensus near $34.9. [40]
These numbers imply that if Meta can deliver on the higher end of forecasts while maintaining a mid‑20s earnings multiple, the stock could justify significantly higher prices by 2026–2027.
Mizuho’s specific model calls for 2026 EPS of $29.50, potentially rising by about $2 if metaverse cuts are fully implemented — one reason the firm reiterates its Outperform rating and $815 price target. [41]
Scenario ranges for 2026
A deeper analysis from TS2, synthesizing Wall Street and algorithmic forecasts, lays out illustrative 2026 scenarios: TechStock²
- Bear case: Meta trades roughly $400–$550, if AI capex remains high while revenue growth slows and regulators or competition hit margins.
- Base case:$700–$850, assuming mid‑20% EPS growth and a mid‑20s P/E multiple.
- Bull case:$900–$1,100+, if AI monetization accelerates, Reality Labs losses peak and free cash flow supports big buybacks and dividend growth.
Crucially, these are scenarios, not predictions. The sheer width of the range — from sub‑$400 to over $1,000 — is a reminder that Meta is still a high‑beta, high‑uncertainty AI play, not a bond proxy.
8. Technical Picture: A Big Bounce, but Not Out of the Woods
Beyond fundamentals and analysts’ spreadsheets, traders are paying attention to Meta’s chart.
MarketPulse’s technical review highlights that: [42]
- Meta is up about 660% from its 2023 bear‑market lows, but recently suffered a 27% correction from record highs near $795 to November lows around $581.
- Today’s rally brought the stock back to a key pivot zone between $660 and $680, which coincides with:
- A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downswing.
- The 50‑week moving average, acting as important resistance.
- If Meta closes decisively above this band in coming weeks, technicians will see it as confirmation that the correction may be over.
- If it fails and rolls over, the recent bounce could prove to be a bear‑market rally within a larger consolidation, with support zones flagged in the $580–$600 range and lower.
In short, the tape confirms renewed interest, but the technicals still demand follow‑through before the longer‑term uptrend is fully restored.
9. Bull vs. Bear: How Today’s News Changes the Narrative
What the bulls see
Supporters of Meta’s current strategy point to:
- A dominant digital advertising franchise with 3.5+ billion daily active users and double‑digit ad growth, powered by increasingly sophisticated AI‑driven targeting and recommendation systems. [43]
- AI as a profit driver, boosting ad prices and engagement (especially through Reels and AI‑ranked feeds) while laying the groundwork for new revenue streams like AI assistants, creator tools and business messaging. [44]
- Metaverse cuts that directly improve margins, reduce Reality Labs’ drag and show management is willing to enforce spending discipline. [45]
- A cleaner capital‑return story, with both buybacks and a new dividend on top of strong free cash flow. [46]
- A major legal overhang removed in the U.S. after winning the FTC case, which reduces tail‑risk of a forced breakup. [47]
From this perspective, today’s rally is a rational repricing as Meta evolves from a metaverse‑heavy story to a more balanced blend of:
AI growth + shareholder returns + constrained metaverse losses.
What the bears and cautious investors worry about
Skeptics, including some analysts who have recently trimmed price targets, flag several concerns: [48]
- AI capex remains enormous. Even with metaverse cuts, Meta expects higher capex in 2026; if revenue growth slows, free cash flow could be squeezed.
- Regulatory risk is compounding, not disappearing — EU investigations, youth‑safety lawsuits in the U.S., and global data‑privacy rules could all pressure margins or limit product rollouts.
- Reality Labs is still a large cash drain, with no guarantee that any AR/VR product reaches mass adoption.
- Competition for attention is intense, from TikTok, YouTube and emerging platforms, while all major tech giants are pouring money into AI.
- Valuation, while not extreme, still prices in a lot of success at roughly 29x trailing earnings.
Algorithmic models that project possible Meta prices as low as the $300s by 2026 serve as a reminder that if sentiment swings, high‑multiple tech names can re‑rate quickly. TechStock²+1
10. What to Watch Next
For investors and traders following Meta stock, key upcoming checkpoints include:
- Details and timing of the metaverse cuts
- How deep will the Reality Labs reductions go, and how quickly will they show up in the P&L?
- Do we see layoffs and restructuring charges in early 2026?
- AI monetization metrics
- Revenue growth vs capex growth through 2026.
- Adoption and monetization of Meta AI, business messaging, and AI‑enhanced ad tools.
- Energy and chip strategy
- Regulatory outcomes
- The EU WhatsApp AI probe and any conditions imposed on Meta’s AI assistant. [51]
- Follow‑on actions after the FTC loss and possible new U.S. or EU investigations in 2026.
- Shareholder returns
- Whether Meta raises its dividend or accelerates buybacks if free cash flow continues to grow. [52]
Bottom Line: What Today’s Meta Stock Surge Really Means
As of December 4, 2025, Meta stock is rallying because the market finally sees the outline of a more disciplined, shareholder‑friendly strategy:
- The metaverse is being scaled back, not abandoned.
- AI — already driving record revenue — is getting the lion’s share of capital.
- A new dividend and continued buybacks signal confidence in durable cash generation.
- A major U.S. antitrust overhang is gone, even as new EU issues emerge.
Whether Meta ultimately trades closer to the bearish $400s or bullish $1,000+ scenarios by 2026 will hinge on execution: turning AI infrastructure into high‑margin revenue, keeping regulators at bay, and proving that the company can deliver growth and discipline at the same time.
For now, markets are voting with their wallets: on December 4, 2025, Meta Platforms is back in favor.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketpulse.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.businessinsider.com, 10. www.emarketer.com, 11. www.home.saxo, 12. www.emarketer.com, 13. www.home.saxo, 14. stocktwits.com, 15. investor.atmeta.com, 16. investor.atmeta.com, 17. investor.atmeta.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. investor.atmeta.com, 22. www.home.saxo, 23. www.home.saxo, 24. stocktwits.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. techcrunch.com, 27. subscriber.politicopro.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. stockstotrade.com, 33. www.barrons.com, 34. www.ft.com, 35. www.barrons.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.investing.com, 39. www.gurufocus.com, 40. www.wallstreetzen.com, 41. stocktwits.com, 42. www.marketpulse.com, 43. investor.atmeta.com, 44. www.home.saxo, 45. www.emarketer.com, 46. investor.atmeta.com, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. www.home.saxo, 49. techcrunch.com, 50. www.reuters.com, 51. www.barrons.com, 52. www.marketbeat.com
