Micron Technology (MU) Stock on December 7, 2025: AI Memory Supercycle, Crucial Exit, and Fresh Wall Street Forecasts

Micron Technology’s stock has become one of 2025’s standout AI beneficiaries. As of Friday’s close on December 5, 2025, Micron (NASDAQ: MU) ended the session at $237.22, up about 4.7% on the day after a fresh analyst upgrade and price‑target hike. ^[1]

That move capped an extraordinary year: different data providers now peg Micron’s year‑to‑date rally between roughly 170% and 180%, reflecting how aggressively investors have priced in the AI-driven memory boom. ^[2]

At the same time, Micron is reshaping its business around high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and AI data centers — even shuttering its consumer Crucial brand — while Wall Street keeps ratcheting up earnings and price targets. Here’s a comprehensive look at the latest news, forecasts, and analysis as of December 7, 2025.

Micron Stock Snapshot: Price, Range, and Momentum

Last close (Dec 5, 2025): $237.22, up 4.6–4.7% on the day. ^[3]
52‑week range: About $61.54 to $260.58, underscoring how far the stock has run during the AI build‑out. ^[4]
MarketBeat metrics: P/E around 31×, dividend yield near 0.2%, and a consensus price target of ~$221.46. ^[5]

Zacks and Simply Wall St both highlight that Micron’s share price has surged more than 170% in 2025, making it one of the best‑performing large semiconductor names of the year as AI spending accelerates. ^[6]

Despite that run, volumes remain healthy and analyst sentiment is still overwhelmingly positive, which is why Micron continues to dominate many “top AI/semiconductor stocks” lists going into year‑end. ^[7]

The Big Story: Micron Exits Crucial to Double Down on AI

Shutting down the consumer memory business

On December 3, 2025, Micron announced that it will exit its consumer‑focused “Crucial” memory and SSD business, halting sales of Crucial‑branded products at retailers and distributors globally and winding down shipments by February 2026. ^[8]

Key points from the announcement and follow‑up coverage:

The Crucial unit is not a major driver of Micron’s revenue; analysts characterize it as a relatively small, lower‑margin segment. ^[9]
The company is redirecting capacity and focus to advanced memory products — especially HBM and other AI‑oriented DRAM — amid a global supply squeeze in high‑performance memory. ^[10]
Management framed the move as a “difficult decision” but necessary to prioritize large, strategic data‑center customers where growth and margins are higher. ^[11]

Tom’s Guide and Barron’s both link the decision to a broader “RAM crisis”: tight supply of both standard DRAM and cutting‑edge HBM as AI data‑center build‑outs absorb capacity across the industry. ^[12]

For investors, the message is clear: Micron is voluntarily stepping away from lower‑margin consumer products to lean harder into the AI memory supercycle.

Record Results: Fiscal 2025 and Q4 Performance

Micron’s latest reported quarter (fiscal Q4 2025, ended in August) and full‑year results set the backdrop for the current enthusiasm.

Fiscal 2025 at a glance

From Micron’s earnings release and detailed analysis by independent tech analysts: ^[13]

FY25 revenue: About $37.4–37.38 billion, up ~49% year over year.
Data‑center revenue: Roughly $20.75 billion, up ~137% YoY, representing 56% of total company sales, up from 35% the prior year.
DRAM + HBM revenue: Around $28.6 billion, rising more than 60% YoY.
HBM run‑rate: HBM revenue nearly $2 billion in Q4, implying an annualized run rate of about $8 billion heading into FY26.

Beth Kindig and others note that Micron’s AI‑centric products — HBM, high‑capacity DIMMs, and low‑power server DRAM — alone reached roughly $10 billion in FY25 revenue, more than five‑fold growth versus FY24. ^[14]

Q4 2025: Big beat, even bigger guidance

MarketBeat summarises Micron’s latest quarter as follows: ^[15]

Q4 revenue:$11.32 billion, beating expectations (~$11.05B) and up 46.1% YoY.
Q4 EPS:$3.03, ahead of the ~$2.86 consensus and up sharply from $1.18 a year earlier.
Margins: Net margin ~23% and ROE ~17%, both showing major improvement from the prior down‑cycle.

For Q1 FY2026, Micron guided to:

Revenue around $12.5 billion, implying low‑40s percent YoY growth and double‑digit sequential growth. ^[16]
Non‑GAAP EPS of $3.60–$3.90, well ahead of last year’s run‑rate and above pre‑guidance consensus. ^[17]

Those numbers underpin the Street’s view that Micron is in the early innings of a multi‑year earnings expansion tied to AI infrastructure.

AI Memory Supercycle: HBM and Server DRAM in the Spotlight

Sold‑out HBM and rising memory prices

Multiple reports now indicate that Micron’s 2025 HBM capacity is fully committed, and the company is working through customer allocations for 2026. ^[18]

Trefis and other analysts highlight several themes: ^[19]

HBM3E leadership: Micron’s HBM3E products are sold out through at least 2026, with HBM4 on the roadmap and customer discussions already underway.
Price upswing: DRAM and NAND prices have risen meaningfully; some DRAM contract prices are estimated to be 20–70% higher than they were in September 2025, driven by tight supply and AI demand.
Capex ramp: Micron is investing heavily — including multi‑billion‑dollar projects in Japan and Singapore — to expand advanced HBM and DRAM capacity for AI markets through 2028.

This is a classic memory up‑cycle, but this time it’s powered by structural AI demand rather than a short‑lived PC or smartphone refresh.

Deep design wins with Nvidia and AMD

Micron is not just selling commodity DRAM; it’s designed into the flagship AI platforms of both Nvidia and AMD:

Micron’s HBM3E 36GB 12‑high stacks are integrated into AMD’s Instinct MI350 series, providing high bandwidth and power efficiency for training large models. ^[20]
On the Nvidia side, Micron supplies HBM3E for B200 and B300 GPUs and LPDDR5X‑based SOCAMM modules for the GB300 Grace Blackwell platform, making it the only memory vendor currently shipping both HBM3E and SOCAMM for AI servers, according to Micron’s own press releases. ^[21]

Industry coverage notes that HBM content per GPU generation has climbed more than 3.5× in just a few years, massively increasing memory dollars per AI server and reinforcing Micron’s role in AI infrastructure. ^[22]

Latest Analyst Moves: Targets March Toward $300–$338

Fresh December rating and target changes

In just the last few days, a series of major banks have updated their Micron models:

Mizuho: Maintained “Outperform” and raised its price target from $265 to $270 on December 4, citing strong positioning in AI memory. ^[23]
Goldman Sachs: Kept a “Neutral” rating but lifted its target from $180 to $205 on December 3, while projecting calendar 2026 EPS of about $21.01 and 2027 EPS of $23.81, substantially above current consensus. ^[24]
Morgan Stanley: Raised its target from $325 to $338 and reiterated “Overweight”, framing Micron as a prime beneficiary of an “AI memory supercycle.” ^[25]
UBS: Boosted its target from $245 to $275 with a “Buy” rating. ^[26]
Rosenblatt: Took its target to $300 while maintaining “Buy.” ^[27]

Consensus view: bullish, but expecting some pullback

Different aggregators show slightly different averages, but they paint a similar picture:

MarketBeat: Consensus rating “Buy”, with an average target around $221–222, implying modest downside from the current price after the big run‑up. ^[28]
Benzinga: 29 analysts, consensus price target ~$211.82, with a high of $338 and low of $84. Recent ratings from Mizuho, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley average around $271, suggesting ~14% upside versus today’s price. ^[29]
StockAnalysis: 30‑analyst coverage, consensus rating “Buy” and average 12‑month target of $206, implying a low‑double‑digit percentage downside after the stock’s surge. Target range: $84 to $338. ^[30]
GuruFocus: Based on 38 analysts, an average target near $218, again implying small downside from levels just before the latest pop. ^[31]

In short, Wall Street is very bullish on Micron’s business, but many models now assume that the stock has run ahead of near‑term fair value, with upside skewed toward more optimistic long‑term AI scenarios.

Earnings and Growth Forecasts for 2026

Analysts and banks have been racing to update their Micron models ahead of the next earnings release, expected around mid‑December 2025 (several data providers list December 16 as the next earnings date, though this is always subject to change). ^[32]

Near‑term (Q1 FY26) expectations

Micron itself guided to $12.5 billion in Q1 FY26 revenue (midpoint) and EPS of $3.60–$3.90. ^[33]
Independent estimates put Q1 EPS around $3.55–$3.75 and revenue growth near 40–45% YoY. ^[34]

Full‑year 2026 scenarios

Zacks and other consensus trackers point to very strong earnings growth in FY26, with EPS expected to nearly double versus FY25 and revenue up 40%+ as HBM and data‑center DRAM scale. ^[35]
Nasdaq data puts FY26 consensus EPS around $16–17 (for the fiscal year ending August 2026), while Goldman’s more aggressive model calls for $21.01 in EPS for calendar 2026 and $23.81 in 2027, ~5–10% above current Street consensus. ^[36]

The upshot: analysts broadly expect Micron’s earnings power to compound sharply through 2026, with debate focused less on whether profits rise and more on how long AI‑driven tightness in memory markets can last.

Valuation: Expensive, Cheap, or Both?

Given the share price explosion, valuation is where opinions diverge the most.

Traditional multiples

MarketBeat lists Micron’s P/E at ~30–31x based on trailing earnings. ^[37]
Other data sources find a trailing P/E just above 30, forward P/E in the low‑teens, and a price‑to‑sales ratio around 7×, near the high end of Micron’s past decade. ^[38]

Compared against high‑growth AI peers like Nvidia, Micron still looks cheaper on a P/E basis, but versus its own history and the broader semiconductor group, the stock is now at a premium to typical mid‑cycle levels. ^[39]

DCF vs market price

Simply Wall St’s December valuation work reaches some striking conclusions: ^[40]

A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model, starting from roughly $2.2 billion in trailing free cash flow and projecting out to 2030, yields an intrinsic value of ~$101 per share.
Versus current prices, that DCF suggests Micron could be overvalued by around 130%.
However, when they look at P/E ratios adjusted for growth (“Fair Ratio”), Micron appears undervalued relative to what its growth profile might justify, with a “fair” P/E closer to the mid‑40s.

In other words, valuation depends heavily on your narrative:

If you assume AI memory demand remains strong and margins structurally higher, today’s price may still be reasonable.
If you believe memory cycles will normalize and growth cool, Micron may be significantly ahead of its fundamentals.

Risk Check: What Could Go Wrong?

Even bullish analysts repeatedly flag that Micron is historically a very volatile stock. Trefis points out that in past downturns, Micron shares have seen drawdowns of 50–80%+ during major market or memory‑cycle corrections. ^[41]

Key risks to watch:

Classic memory cyclicality
- If competitors overbuild HBM and DRAM capacity, today’s tight supply could swing back to oversupply, crushing prices and margins.
AI demand normalization or delays
- Micron’s current optimism is built on continued rapid deployment of AI infrastructure. Any slowdown in data‑center capex, or a pause after the initial AI land‑grab, could pressure orders.
Geopolitics and export controls
- Memory suppliers are deeply exposed to China and broader Asia, and tighter export rules or new trade restrictions could affect demand or supply chains.
Competition from Samsung and SK hynix
- Both rivals are investing heavily in next‑generation HBM and DRAM. If they pull ahead in performance, yield, or cost, Micron’s share of the AI memory wallet could disappoint.
Insider selling
- Recent filings show insiders have sold more than 400,000 shares (≈$85M worth) in the last few months, even as institutions remain heavy owners (~81% of the float). ^[42]
- Insider selling doesn’t automatically signal trouble, but it’s one more input for risk‑aware investors.

What to Watch Next

For anyone tracking Micron into year‑end and 2026, a few catalysts stand out:

Next earnings report (mid‑December 2025)
The key question will be whether Micron raises guidance again and how it frames HBM supply, pricing, and AI demand over the next few quarters. ^[43]
Updates on HBM4 and capacity commitments
Look for commentary on HBM4 design wins, expected performance gains, and whether 2026 capacity also becomes fully booked — all of which would support the “lasting supercycle” thesis. ^[44]
Impact of exiting Crucial
While not financially huge, the consumer exit will show up in segment reporting over the next few quarters and should gradually lift Micron’s overall mix and margins as capacity shifts to higher‑value AI products. ^[45]
Street revisions
Watch how consensus EPS and price targets move once new guidance lands. If EPS estimates keep being revised higher faster than the stock price, valuation multiples could compress even if the share price rises.

Bottom Line

As of December 7, 2025, Micron Technology sits at the crossroads of:

A massive AI‑driven demand surge for high‑bandwidth memory,
A radical portfolio shift away from consumer products toward data‑center and AI solutions, and
A sharply higher stock price that already reflects a lot of optimism.

Wall Street largely agrees that Micron is one of the clearest plays on AI memory, with record results, sold‑out HBM capacity, and price targets stretching as high as $300–$338. At the same time, valuation models and Micron’s own cyclical history urge caution: memory stocks can fall hard when conditions turn. ^[46]

For investors and traders, Micron now looks less like a simple “cheap turnaround” and more like a high‑beta, high‑conviction AI infrastructure bet, where returns will likely hinge on how long the AI memory supercycle can run before the next downturn.

Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.