New York, January 28, 2026, 09:42 (ET) — Regular session underway.
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) shares ticked up roughly 0.4% to $482.31 in early Wednesday trading, following a $480.58 close the previous day. The stock remains down about 0.6% year to date. 1
The company is set to report after the close during a week crowded with megacap earnings, including Meta Platforms and Tesla on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. Investors are looking for clear signs that the expensive AI investments are finally boosting profits. “Expectations are very high,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, noting there’s “less room” for these stocks to fall short. 2
The S&P 500 edged up toward 7,000 at the open, driven by chip stocks, as investors braced for the Fed’s announcement later today; officials are broadly anticipated to hold rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%. “Tech is always closely watched,” noted Louise Dudley, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. 3
Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are set to boost AI spending by 30% this year, pushing the total beyond $500 billion and intensifying questions about returns. Azure is forecast to grow 38.8% in the October-December quarter, down from a 40% surge in the previous period. Microsoft also warned that AI capacity limits could persist until at least June. Morgan Stanley analysts call the mood around Microsoft “a wall of worry.” On top of that, a spike in memory-chip prices has cast a shadow over PC demand, another key market for the tech giant. 4
FactSet analysts are forecasting earnings of roughly $3.91 per share on $80.3 billion in revenue, with Azure growth around 38.4%. Stifel’s Brad Reback noted that demand “continues to outpace Azure supply” and expects growth to beat that estimate by about two percentage points. Raymond James analyst Andrew Marok described Microsoft 365 as “mission-critical.” Investors are also eyeing capital expenditures — including spending on data centers and servers — following last quarter’s $34.9 billion figure. 5
Options traders are betting on a roughly 5% swing either way following Microsoft’s earnings report. That sets an implied price range between about $459 and $502, based on Tuesday’s close near $481. Since October’s results, the stock has slid roughly 11%, as concerns over rising AI-related expenses resurfaced. 6
For investors, the key is the blend: how fast Azure grows, the speed of AI development, and if management seems closer to balancing demand with supply. Guidance often hurts more than a one-off quarterly beat or miss.
The bar remains high, and the stock hasn’t stayed cheap for much of this cycle. A weaker cloud report or a fresh rise in spending squeezing margins might just send buyers running for cover.
The Fed will drop its policy statement at 2 p.m. EST, with Chair Jerome Powell holding a news conference half an hour later at 2:30 p.m. EST. Hints around rates have been shifting megacaps, and tech usually catches the ripple first. 7
Microsoft plans to release its fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings after U.S. markets close. CEO Satya Nadella and CFO Amy Hood will hold a conference call at 2:30 p.m. PT. 8
