Microsoft Stock (MSFT) After Hours: AI Chip Shake-Up, Dividend Payout and What to Watch Before the December 9, 2025 Open

Microsoft stock ended Monday, December 8, 2025 on a firmer footing, as investors weighed fresh AI chip headlines, an upcoming dividend payment, and a still‑bullish Wall Street outlook ahead of the next Fed decision. Here’s a complete, news‑driven look at where MSFT stands after the bell on Dec. 8 and what traders and investors should know before the market opens on Dec. 9, 2025.

1. How Microsoft Stock Traded on December 8, 2025

A solid green day, hovering just below resistance

Real‑time and end‑of‑day data from several providers show Microsoft closing around $490–$491 per share on Monday, up roughly 1.5–1.6% versus Friday’s $483.16 close. ^[1]

Intraday range: roughly mid‑$480s to low‑$490s, with highs just above $492. ^[2]
Volume: around 19–20 million shares, broadly in line with recent sessions. ^[3]
Market cap & valuation: Microsoft’s market cap sits near $3.85 trillion, with a P/E ratio around 36–37 based on trailing EPS of about $14.06.

That puts MSFT still below its all‑time closing high around $541 (Oct. 28, 2025) and a 52‑week high near $555, roughly 10–15% above current levels, according to long‑term price data from Macrotrends. ^[4]

After-hours: Quiet, steady, no surprise headlines

By early evening (around 21:05 UTC), Microsoft shares were changing hands near $491 in the post‑market session, essentially flat versus the regular‑session close.

There were no major after‑hours earnings releases or company‑specific filings from Microsoft on Monday. Instead, the stock’s story after the bell is mostly about ongoing reaction to AI and chip news, dividend expectations, and macro headlines rather than any fresh bombshell from Redmond.

2. The Big Story: Microsoft’s Custom AI Chip Pivot (Marvell → Broadcom → OpenAI)

Rumors of a supplier switch shake up the chip ecosystem

The most consequential Microsoft‑related news flow on December 8 revolves around its AI hardware supply chain:

Reports from The Information and follow‑up coverage suggest Microsoft is considering moving some or all of its custom AI chip business from Marvell Technology to Broadcom, in line with a broader shift by hyperscalers toward specialized AI silicon. ^[5]
Coverage from Benzinga, Azat TV, Invezz, and MarketWatch all highlight that this potential move lifted Broadcom shares (~+2% pre‑market) while weighing heavily on Marvell, which dropped around 6% intraday. ^[6]

For Microsoft shareholders, the direct earnings impact of a supplier reshuffle is minor in the short run, but strategically it matters a lot:

It underlines how central optimized AI chips have become for Azure data centers and Copilot workloads.
It reinforces the trend of hyperscalers co‑designing chips with external partners rather than trying to do everything fully in‑house.

Updated OpenAI–Broadcom deal: Microsoft quietly gets the blueprints

A separate but very related piece updated on December 8 explains how Microsoft is plugging its AI chip gap by leaning on OpenAI: ^[7]

Under a revised partnership running through 2032, Microsoft gains intellectual property rights to OpenAI’s custom AI chip designs, while OpenAI works with Broadcom to build those chips.
CEO Satya Nadella has said Microsoft plans to “adopt OpenAI’s designs and extend them” for its own workloads, giving it access to “all” system‑level innovations coming out of that collaboration. ^[8]

Put together, Monday’s headlines paint a clear strategic picture:

Microsoft is signaling that the way it will compete with Google’s TPUs and Amazon’s Trainium/Inferentia is not by out‑inventing them alone, but by deep partnerships with OpenAI and Broadcom that feed directly into Azure.

Heading into Tuesday, any confirmation or denial from Microsoft, Marvell, or Broadcom on the exact contours of these chip partnerships would be a key catalyst.

3. Dividend Watch: Cash Returns in Focus This Week

A bigger quarterly dividend lands on December 11

Income investors have another reason to watch MSFT this week: a higher quarterly dividend is about to hit accounts.

Microsoft’s board raised the dividend to $0.91 per share in September 2025, a roughly 10% increase over the prior $0.83 payout. ^[9]
Dividend trackers and Microsoft’s own announcements confirm that $0.91 per share will be paid on Thursday, December 11, 2025 to shareholders of record as of November 20 (the ex‑dividend date has already passed). ^[10]

At Monday’s price near $491, this implies a forward yield of ~0.7–0.8%, based on a $3.64–$3.64+ annualized payout. ^[11]

So while Microsoft is still very much a growth‑first AI and cloud story, the dividend:

Signals confidence in long‑term cash flows and
Provides a modest total‑return tailwind for long‑term holders.

Short‑term, you shouldn’t expect major price swings just because of the payment (the stock already traded ex‑div), but dividend‑oriented funds may still rebalance slightly around the payout date.

4. Wall Street’s View: Still Bullish, With Targets Clustered Around $600+

Consensus ratings: “Moderate/Strong Buy”

Across major data providers, the Street still sees Microsoft as one of the core AI winners:

MarketBeat data compiled this week shows 2 analysts at “Strong Buy,” 37 at “Buy,” and 4 at “Hold,” with no Sell ratings, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus. ^[12]
Benzinga’s analyst‑target roundup pegs the average 12‑month price target near $624, with a Street‑high target of $700 from Wells Fargo and a low around $490 from TD Securities. ^[13]

StockAnalysis, which aggregates rating trends, similarly lists Microsoft as a “Strong Buy” with a very skewed distribution toward positive recommendations and zero Sell or Strong Sell calls. ^[14]

Longer-term forecasts: 24/7 Wall St’s 2025–2030 path

A detailed model from 24/7 Wall St, published on December 8, lays out an aggressive multi‑year roadmap: ^[15]

Their scenario projects revenue rising from roughly $245B in 2025 to about $453B by 2030, with EPS climbing from about $15.7 to $28.7.
Based on those assumptions, they outline price targets of ~$563 in 2025, $615 in 2026, and nearly $897 by 2030—an ~85% upside from around current levels by 2030 in their model.

That’s just one firm’s forecast, but it underscores the bullish long‑term narrative: sustained double‑digit revenue growth and rising margins tied to AI and cloud.

Recent earnings: Big beat, hefty margins

Recent quarterly numbers back up that optimism:

In the latest reported quarter (late October), Microsoft delivered EPS of about $4.13 vs. $3.65 expected on revenue of ~$77.7B, up ~18% year‑over‑year.
Net margin came in around 35.7%, with return on equity above 32%, and analysts expect full‑year EPS over $13 per share. ^[16]

Those margins and growth rates are why many strategists still argue Microsoft deserves a premium multiple, even with a P/E in the mid‑30s.

5. AI, Copilot and Cloud: The Bull Case Meets New Skepticism

Ignite, Copilot, and Azure: Product momentum still building

On the product side, Microsoft has spent the last months stacking up AI announcements:

Microsoft Ignite 2025 introduced new Copilot features, AI agents, and “Work IQ”, positioning Microsoft 365 Copilot as an essential workflow engine for enterprises. ^[17]
Azure’s team announced Azure Copilot agents and new AI infrastructure offerings to help enterprises modernize cloud workloads and deploy more advanced AI at scale. ^[18]
Partner‑center updates in early December brought new Microsoft 365 Copilot SKUs and promotions for small and mid‑sized businesses, creating another potential growth vector as AI reaches SMB customers. ^[19]

Barron’s recently highlighted Microsoft as an “AI winner, bubble or no bubble,” citing strong Azure growth (fiscal 2025 Azure revenue around $75B, +34% YoY), deep integration with OpenAI, and diversified AI bets (Anthropic and in‑house models) as reasons to stick with the stock even if AI enthusiasm gets choppy. ^[20]

But not everyone loves Copilot: critical coverage emerges

Balancing the bullish narrative, Windows Central published a sharply critical piece on December 8 arguing that “nobody wants to buy or use” Microsoft’s current crop of AI products and that the company has cut internal AI sales goals in response to weaker‑than‑hoped adoption. ^[21]

Key points from that perspective:

Some customers view early Copilot offerings as immature or unreliable, limiting willingness to pay enterprise‑level prices.
The article suggests Google’s AI growth may be outpacing Microsoft’s in certain segments, particularly search and consumer‑oriented tools. ^[22]

This is opinion, not regulatory disclosure, but it matters for sentiment: going into Tuesday, traders will be watching whether:

More mainstream outlets pick up this “AI disappointment” angle, or
The dominant narrative remains Microsoft as the default AI infrastructure and productivity play.

Research & science: Microsoft still investing heavily in AI

Microsoft’s own newsrooms also spent December 8 highlighting AI research achievements, including a Swedish‑language piece on “ten major scientific breakthroughs” from Microsoft researchers in 2025, many linked to AI and advanced computing. ^[23]

Taken with Ignite and Azure’s infrastructure push, the underlying signal is clear: capital and talent are still flowing aggressively into Microsoft’s AI stack, despite mixed commentary about near‑term product polish.

6. Technical Picture: Key Levels to Watch Heading Into December 9

A detailed weekly technical outlook published last week (Week 49) frames Microsoft’s chart in a way many short‑term traders will be watching as Tuesday’s session approaches: ^[24]

Trend: Long‑term uptrend remains intact, but the stock is consolidating after a post‑earnings pullback of about 6%.
Support:
- First key zone around $465
- Deeper support near $450, then around $430 on the weekly chart
Resistance:
- Immediate resistance near $495
- Higher zones around $504 (prior highs) and $520

With Monday’s close near $490–$491, MSFT is sitting just below that $495 resistance band. ^[25]

The same analysis notes:

A bearish MACD crossover on the daily chart, suggesting some short‑term caution, even as momentum remains positive over longer horizons.
Price action is coiling between roughly $465 and $495, with a likely breakout or breakdown setting the tone for the rest of December. ^[26]

For Tuesday’s open, traders will be laser‑focused on:

Whether MSFT can push through and hold above ~$495, which would support a retest of prior highs; or
Whether any negative AI headlines or broader market weakness drag it back toward the mid‑$480s or the $465 support zone.

7. Macro & Sector Backdrop: Fed, AI “Show Me” Moment and Risk Sentiment

Monday’s market: Indices down, AI leaders still in focus

The broader market tone on December 8 was cautious but not panicked:

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, kicking off a week dominated by the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on whether to cut interest rates again. ^[27]
Prior sessions saw the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq flirting with or hitting record highs, helped by AI‑driven mega‑caps like Nvidia and Microsoft. ^[28]
Year‑to‑date, the typical U.S. stock fund is still up around 12.6%, according to Wall Street Journal data cited Monday. ^[29]

Oppenheimer added fuel to the optimism by setting a Street‑high 2026 S&P 500 year‑end target of 8,100, reinforcing the idea that big‑cap tech and AI leaders may continue to outperform in a “soft‑landing” scenario. ^[30]

AI stocks’ “show me” phase

Investor’s Business Daily and other outlets frame this week as a “show me” moment for AI stocks:

Reports highlight upcoming results and guidance from AI‑exposed names like Oracle and Broadcom, with markets wanting to see tangible AI revenue and profit, not just AI buzzwords. ^[31]

For Microsoft, this matters indirectly:

Strong AI‑related numbers from peers would validate AI spending trends that ultimately benefit Azure and Copilot.
Disappointing results or cautious guidance could pressure high‑multiple AI leaders, including MSFT, even without company‑specific bad news.

8. What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 9, 2025

Here’s a concise checklist for Tuesday’s open:

1. Any new confirmation—or pushback—on the Broadcom/Marvell chip story

Look for statements from Microsoft, Marvell, or Broadcom clarifying how far talks have progressed.
A formal announcement or strong denial could move all three stocks and reshape sentiment around Microsoft’s AI hardware strategy. ^[32]

2. Futures and tech sector tone ahead of the Fed

Overnight index futures and big‑tech peers (Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Apple) will give an early signal on risk appetite.
Any surprise macro data or Fed‑related leaks could tighten financial conditions, adding pressure to valuations like Microsoft’s mid‑30s P/E. ^[33]

3. AI sentiment swing: Does the “shoddy AI products” narrative spread?

Watch whether Monday’s Windows Central critique of Copilot and Microsoft AI gains traction in mainstream financial media or remains a niche tech‑press story. ^[34]
At the same time, keep an eye on more bullish takes, like Barron’s “AI winner” framing, to gauge which narrative dominates. ^[35]

4. Dividend‑related positioning

With the $0.91 dividend payment due Thursday, some income‑focused strategies may rebalance or reinvest around Microsoft. ^[36]
Because the stock is already ex‑dividend, any move is more likely to be subtle flow‑driven trading than a big directional catalyst.

5. Technical levels: $495 resistance and $465 support

If early buying pushes MSFT above $495 on solid volume, technicians will talk about a potential breakout toward prior highs near $504+. ^[37]
A reversal that takes the stock back toward $480s or below could re‑open the $465–$470 support zone, implying a continued consolidation pattern into year‑end. ^[38]

6. Ongoing AI infrastructure and research news

Further details about OpenAI–Broadcom chip development or Microsoft’s AI research breakthroughs could reinforce the long‑term AI infrastructure bull case, even if short‑term product reviews are mixed. ^[39]

9. Bottom Line: Strong Fundamentals, High Expectations, and New Questions on AI Execution

As of after the bell on December 8, 2025, Microsoft sits in a familiar position:

Financially: posting double‑digit revenue growth, fat margins, and rising dividends, with a multi‑trillion‑dollar market cap and a still‑premium valuation. ^[40]
Strategically: deepening its AI moat through Azure, Copilot, and an expanded OpenAI/Broadcom chip partnership, while exploring new SKUs and use cases for businesses of all sizes. ^[41]
In the market: widely rated Buy or Strong Buy, with consensus price targets in the low‑to‑mid $600s and some very bullish longer‑term forecasts that assume AI remains a powerful secular growth driver. ^[42]

At the same time:

Critical coverage of Copilot and Microsoft’s AI UX is gaining volume, and
The stock is trading close to key resistance, with a valuation that leaves little room for major execution mistakes. ^[43]

For Tuesday’s open on December 9, 2025, the main message is:

Microsoft remains a core AI blue chip with strong fundamentals, but short‑term price action will be driven by how investors digest the chip‑supplier headlines, AI adoption debate, and macro news around the Fed and AI peers.

As always, this overview is informational only, not investment advice. Anyone considering trading or investing in MSFT should match these themes against their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and research.