Microsoft stock slides on Brazil antitrust probe into cloud licensing — what investors watch next

Microsoft stock slides on Brazil antitrust probe into cloud licensing — what investors watch next

NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 09:33 ET — Market closed

  • Brazil’s antitrust watchdog CADE opened a proceeding to investigate Microsoft’s corporate software and cloud computing practices. 1
  • Microsoft shares closed down 2.21% on Friday at $472.94. 2
  • Traders are looking to the Jan. 9 U.S. jobs report as the first major macro test of 2026. 3

Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares ended down 2.21% on Friday after Brazil’s antitrust watchdog opened a probe into the company’s corporate software and cloud computing practices. The stock finished at $472.94, and U.S. markets are closed on Saturday. 1

The investigation puts cloud licensing — the rules and prices for using Microsoft software on different cloud platforms — back in focus as investors size up regulatory risks alongside growth. It also lands as megacap tech valuations remain sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations.

Those expectations may get tested quickly. U.S. employment data due Jan. 9 is the first major macro checkpoint next week, and moves in rates can ripple through long-duration growth stocks such as Microsoft. 3

CADE, Brazil’s antitrust regulator, said its investigative arm opened an administrative proceeding to examine suspected violations of the economic order tied to Microsoft’s activity in corporate software and cloud markets, a regulator dispatch showed. 1

The decision followed a technical recommendation that drew on a July 2025 report by Britain’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA). The technical note said Microsoft’s licensing policies hurt rivals — especially Amazon Web Services and Google — for customers whose “workloads,” the computing tasks run in the cloud, depend on Microsoft software as an essential input. 1

CADE said it needed to investigate whether the same competitive effects are occurring in Brazil. Microsoft did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment in the country. 1

Microsoft traded between $470.16 and $484.66 on Friday and ended near the day’s low, with about 25.5 million shares changing hands, according to price data. 2

The pullback came as chipmakers rallied, helping the Dow and S&P 500 finish higher, while several heavyweight tech stocks including Microsoft weighed on broader index gains, Reuters reported. 4

“Investors might be a little bit more conscious about some of the valuations that they’re paying for some of the AI plays,” said Joe Mazzola, head of trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab, referring to stocks tied to artificial intelligence spending. 4

For Microsoft, cloud licensing is more than a legal footnote. Any pressure to change terms that affect how customers run Microsoft software on rival clouds would hit a competitive front where AWS and Google Cloud fight for enterprise workloads. 1

Before next session, investors will look for signs the Brazil review widens — including whether CADE pushes toward remedies that could force changes to licensing terms or pricing.

Macro catalysts loom too: the Jan. 9 jobs report and the Jan. 13 U.S. consumer price index headline the early-January calendar, while quarterly earnings season starts with big U.S. banks, Reuters reported. 3

Microsoft has not posted a date for its next earnings release and says it will be announced soon on its investor relations site. Until then, traders are likely to keep the $470 area in view after Friday’s drop, while watching for updates on Azure demand, AI infrastructure spending and any regulatory read-through. 5

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