Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) has spent the back half of December doing what resource stocks do best: whipping investors between “is this the bottom?” despair and “wait… are we so back?” euphoria.
On 23 December 2025, MIN is trading in the mid‑A$50s after a sharp run-up in recent sessions. One data set shows the stock closed at A$55.46 on 23 December after opening at A$55.05. [1] Another market data provider shows MIN around A$56.30 with an intraday range up to A$56.56, which would also mark the top of its stated 52‑week range (A$14.05 to A$56.56). [2]
So what’s actually pushing MinRes around right now—and why do forecasts still imply meaningful downside even after the rally?
Mineral Resources share price today: what the tape is saying on 23 December 2025
MIN’s latest move isn’t a single-day meme spike. It’s been building across multiple sessions:
- MIN jumped 6.17% on 22 December (closing A$55.90 in that same historical feed), before easing on 23 December (down 0.79% to A$55.46). [3]
- A technical scan published this morning flags Mineral Resources as one of the day’s notable ASX uptrends, listing a last price of A$55.90, +14.5% over one month, and +62.5% over one year. [4]
Those aren’t “quiet Christmas week” numbers. They’re “a lot of people are repricing something” numbers.
The big drivers: lithium sentiment, balance-sheet repair, and Onslow Iron execution
MinRes sits at the intersection of three investor obsessions:
- Lithium price direction (and whether the bottom is real)
- Debt and funding (and whether dilution or asset sales are needed)
- Operational delivery at Onslow Iron (because execution is the antidote to fear)
The current MIN rerating looks like a blend of all three.
1) Lithium is waking up again—at least in China’s futures market
Lithium sentiment has improved after a notable price move in China.
Reuters reported on 17 December 2025 that lithium prices in China surged after authorities in Yichun (a major lithium hub) announced plans to revoke expired mining licences. The most-active lithium carbonate contract hit its highest level since mid‑2024 during the session. Analysts cited by Reuters suggested the licence revocations were unlikely to affect immediate supply (because the permits were expired and not tied to operating mines), but the headline stirred investor worries about future supply and helped lift prices. [5]
MinRes isn’t priced purely off lithium carbonate futures, but lithium psychology matters. When the market believes the lithium downcycle is ending, diversified lithium-exposed names often move quickly—especially those with credible pathways to stronger balance sheets.
2) The POSCO lithium partnership is still echoing through the valuation
A major reason MIN has been able to rally without the market immediately screaming “but the balance sheet!” is that MinRes already executed a very large financing/partnering move.
Reuters reported that MinRes agreed to sell a 30% stake in part of its lithium business to POSCO for US$765 million, explicitly framing the deal as a step to reduce debt and repair the balance sheet. The structure creates an incorporated JV holding MinRes’s existing 50% ownership in the Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium mines—giving POSCO an indirect 15% interest in each—while MinRes remains operator. [6]
MinRes’ own ASX release on the POSCO partnership underscores the strategic logic: pairing MinRes’ mining capability with POSCO’s downstream expertise, and positioning those assets as long-life supply. [7]
In plain English: the market is treating this deal as both (a) validation that the assets are real and financeable and (b) a pressure valve for funding risk.
3) Onslow Iron is producing the kind of milestones investors can model
MinRes’ October quarterly update is doing heavy lifting in the background of today’s price action.
In its Quarterly Activity Report (Q1 FY26), MinRes reported that Onslow Iron shipped 8.6 million wet metric tonnes (100% basis) in the quarter, up 50% quarter-on-quarter, with attributable shipments of 4.9Mt and a reported FOB cost of A$54/wmt. The same report also notes that Onslow Iron reached a 35Mtpa run-rate over three months, satisfying a condition tied to a A$200 million contingent payment related to the private haul road transaction. [8]
That “run-rate achieved + contingent payment triggered” combination is exactly the kind of operational + financial one-two punch that changes a narrative from “capital sink” to “cash engine loading…”.
MinRes separately announced in late October that it had satisfied the condition for that contingent payment, describing it as part of balance sheet management and deleveraging. [9]
The headline risk that hasn’t gone away: tax and governance scrutiny
Even with improving commodity sentiment and operational wins, MinRes still has a governance-shaped shadow on the wall.
Mining.com (citing Bloomberg News) reported in November that Australian tax officials started a new investigation into Mineral Resources and founder/managing director Chris Ellison, focused on how income and fringe benefits taxes were calculated, following separate scrutiny reported involving ASIC and the ASX. The same report notes an internal company probe found “profoundly disappointing” conduct, with Ellison reportedly fined and forfeiting pay and incentives, and committing to step down by mid-next year. [10]
For investors, this matters in two ways:
- It can cap valuation multiples (because governance discount is a real thing).
- It can increase event risk (new revelations, regulatory escalations, leadership turbulence).
The rally suggests the market is currently prioritizing operations and funding improvement—but it hasn’t erased the governance overhang.
Forecasts and analyst targets: why the consensus still looks cautious
Here’s the part that tends to surprise casual observers: even after the rebound to the mid‑A$50s, some published consensus targets still imply the stock is ahead of itself.
One widely used market data page lists:
- Average 12‑month price target:A$47.19
- High estimate:A$68
- Low estimate:A$17.30
- A mixed recommendation set that aggregates to a Neutral stance, with buys and sells both represented, and an implied downside versus the current trading level shown there. [11]
Two interpretations can be true at the same time:
- Targets are lagging indicators. After a fast repricing, targets often catch up slowly as analysts update models.
- Analysts are still pricing real risks. MinRes has faced earnings pressure from lithium, large capex, and governance uncertainty; cautious targets can reflect “even if it improves, we want a margin of safety.”
Also note: another market data site flags that MIN may not be covered in its broker compilation (or did not meet its internal QA filters), which is a reminder that “consensus” varies by provider and dataset. [12]
Profitability snapshot: the rebound is happening while trailing earnings are still negative
This is the uncomfortable-but-important part of the MIN story: the stock is behaving like a recovery play, while some trailing metrics still look bruised.
A market data listing shows Mineral Resources with TTM EPS around -A$4.59. [13] Another snapshot lists EPS of -A$4.588. [14]
That doesn’t automatically mean “bad company.” It often means “cycle + impairments + capex peak.”
For example, MinRes said in its April–June 2025 quarterly report that it expected non-cash impairments of ~A$80 million, largely related to lithium tenements, while also noting it was assessing the carrying value of certain assets tied to RDG after that company entered voluntary administration. [15]
The market, in other words, is trading forward—trying to decide whether FY26/FY27 look more like “earnings normalization” or “more pain, just with better PowerPoints.”
Technical analysis: MIN is now showing up in “uptrend” screens
If you’re wondering why the buying pressure feels persistent, the technical crowd is noticing it too.
MarketIndex’s ChartWatch “ASX Scans” (published 23 Dec 2025, 09:00 AEDT) lists Mineral Resources among the day’s most interesting uptrends, showing +14.5% over one month and +62.5% over one year, alongside a last price around A$55.90 in that scan table. [16]
That kind of visibility matters because trend strategies are often systematic: once a stock enters certain screens, incremental buyers appear (and they don’t care about your feelings, only the signal).
Important caveat: technical trend recognition is not a fundamental guarantee. It’s more like a telescope than a crystal ball—useful for seeing what’s happening, not certain about what happens next.
Macro backdrop: iron ore resilience and “critical minerals” tailwinds
MinRes is not only lithium. Iron ore (and mining services leveraged to volume growth) remains central—especially via Onslow Iron.
A Reuters report on Australia’s resources export outlook noted the government revised expected resource export earnings higher, citing record gold prices and resilient iron ore prices, while also projecting iron ore prices around US$87/ton for the current financial year and US$83/ton for 2026–27 (government forecast). [17]
For MinRes, this matters because the iron ore side is where scale and logistics execution can translate into cash flow—particularly if costs stay controlled and volumes keep ramping.
What investors will watch next
MIN is currently a “two-narrative” stock: improving operations and funding vs. governance and commodity uncertainty. The next leg likely depends on which narrative gets better evidence.
Key watch items into early 2026 include:
- Lithium pricing and contract realizations: Is the recent China price strength a tradable blip or a durable trend? [18]
- Onslow Iron ramp continuity: Volume and cost discipline matter; the October quarterly numbers set a benchmark. [19]
- Debt trajectory: The POSCO proceeds were framed as debt repayment and balance sheet fortification—investors will look for follow-through in reported net leverage. [20]
- Governance timeline: Any new regulatory developments, and clarity around leadership transition, can move the valuation multiple as much as commodity prices. [21]
- Capital markets activity: MinRes has used debt markets in 2025 (including a US$700m notes offering/ refinancing communication), so the cost of capital backdrop still matters. [22]
Bottom line on Mineral Resources stock on 23 December 2025
MinRes (ASX: MIN) is ending 2025 with momentum: a strong one‑month move, an improved one‑year snapshot, and a technical profile that’s attracting trend followers. [23] The story behind that momentum is legible: lithium sentiment is less grim, the POSCO deal supports the balance sheet narrative, and Onslow Iron is hitting milestones that investors can quantify. [24]
But the forecast picture remains mixed: published analyst targets are, on average, still below today’s trading level on at least one major data feed, and governance scrutiny remains an unresolved risk factor. [25]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.marketindex.com.au, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. announcements.asx.com.au, 8. announcements.asx.com.au, 9. announcements.asx.com.au, 10. www.mining.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.marketindex.com.au, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.marketindex.com.au, 15. announcements.asx.com.au, 16. www.marketindex.com.au, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. announcements.asx.com.au, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.mining.com, 22. announcements.asx.com.au, 23. www.marketindex.com.au, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com
