Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) Stock Outlook 2026: Lithium Rebound, Onslow Iron Milestones and What Analysts Expect Next

Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) has spent 2025 reinventing itself in real time. On 1 December 2025, the stock is trading around A$47.09, down roughly 4% on the day but still more than triple its 52‑week low of A$14.05, giving the company a market capitalisation of about A$9.3 billion. ^[1]

Behind that recovery are three big forces: the Onslow Iron ramp‑up, a tentative lithium price rebound, and a hard reset in governance and balance sheet strategy. At the same time, analyst forecasts remain surprisingly divided, with targets ranging from the high teens to the high 60s.

This article pulls together the latest company news, credit actions and sell‑side forecasts as at 1 December 2025, to outline where Mineral Resources (often shortened to MinRes) stands and what could move the ASX:MIN share price next.

Where the Mineral Resources share price stands on 1 December 2025

According to Google Finance, Mineral Resources shares are trading at A$47.09 as of 1:27pm (GMT+11) on 1 December 2025, versus a previous close of A$49.08. The intraday trading range has been A$46.65 to A$49.08. ^[2]

Key current snapshot:

Market cap: ~A$9.3 billion
52‑week range: A$14.05 – A$52.69
Price to book: ~2.98x
Dividend yield: 0% (no dividend currently declared) ^[3]

That share price puts MinRes roughly 236% above its 52‑week low, reflecting a dramatic re‑rating from early‑2025 levels when debt worries and a brutal lithium downturn saw the stock trading in the high teens. ^[4]

Year‑on‑year, StockAnalysis estimates MinRes’s market cap has climbed about 40% to A$9.66 billion (as of 28 November 2025), after more than halving over calendar 2024. ^[5]

2025 in review: from debt fears to cautious recovery

At the start of 2025, Mineral Resources looked like a case study in how quickly sentiment can turn on highly leveraged resource stocks.

An April 2025 analysis noted that MinRes’s net debt sat around A$5.1 billion as at December 2024, with the share price down about 76% over the prior year, briefly valuing the company at just A$3.34 billion – less than its total debt. ^[6]
The company faced lithium price collapse, the Bald Hill lithium mine in care and maintenance, reduced iron ore production, unexpected repair costs on the Onslow haul road, and suspended dividends. ^[7]

Against that backdrop, MinRes spent much of 2025 in “repair and reset” mode:

FY25 full‑year results (year to 30 June 2025) showed revenue of A$4.5 billion, down 15% year‑on‑year, and underlying EBITDA of A$901 million. Underlying NPAT was –A$112 million, but the second half returned to profit (A$84 million), while statutory NPAT was –A$896 million after A$632 million of impairments. ^[8]
The board declined to declare a final dividend, explicitly prioritising balance sheet strength. Liquidity stood at A$1.1 billion, with net debt to EBITDA beginning to tick down. ^[9]
A major governance refresh kicked off, including the appointment of new independent directors and a new independent chair, Malcolm Bundey, tasked with reviewing capital allocation and governance practices. ^[10]

By late 2025, the narrative had shifted from survival to stabilisation and selective growth, driven mainly by the Onslow Iron project and an improving lithium market.

Iron ore: Onslow Iron hits nameplate capacity and unlocks A$200m

The Onslow Iron joint venture is now the core economic engine of MinRes.

In the Q4 FY25 quarterly report (June quarter), MinRes reported: ^[11]

Total iron ore shipments across Onslow and the Pilbara Hub of 8.3 million wmt (100% basis) for the quarter.
Onslow Iron shipments of 5.8 million wmt in the quarter and 14.0 Mt for FY25, at the top end of guidance.
Onslow FOB costs of A$57/wmt in Q4 and about A$63/wmt for FY25, at the bottom of guidance, with a run‑rate of 32.4 Mtpa achieved in June.

By Q1 FY26 (quarter to 30 September 2025), Onslow Iron had done what management promised: run at its 35 Mtpa nameplate capacity between August and October. ^[12]

Highlights from the Q1 FY26 update:

8.6 Mt of Onslow iron ore shipped in the quarter (100% basis), up 50% quarter‑on‑quarter, with attributable shipments of 4.9 Mt at A$54/wmt FOB.
Total iron ore shipments (Onslow + Pilbara Hub) hit a record 11.4 Mt (100%) for the quarter.
Average realised iron ore price across both hubs was US$90/dmt, up 14% quarter‑on‑quarter and representing 88% of the Platts 62% IODEX benchmark. ^[13]

Crucially, the ramp‑up triggered a A$200 million contingent payment from Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners (MSIP) linked to the private haul road transaction:

Between 1 August and 27 October 2025, 8.75 Mt of ore were hauled along the 150‑km private road, meeting the requirement of a 35 Mtpa run‑rate over three months. ^[14]
MinRes expects the A$200m cash inflow in early November 2025, taking total proceeds from the Onslow Iron Road Trust deal to A$1.3 billion. ^[15]

Australian media have described the milestone as an important validation of MinRes’ “pit‑to‑ship” logistics model, even as the project’s early months were marred by truck rollovers and questions over road quality and safety. ^[16]

For investors, Onslow Iron now acts as:

A low‑cost, long‑life iron ore asset,
A major contributor to cash flow, and
A key lever for debt reduction over FY26–27.

Lithium: from “miserable” prices to a bullish turn

Lithium has been both MinRes’ biggest long‑term opportunity and its most immediate headache.

Earlier in 2025, MinRes struggled with lithium prices low enough that only the very cheapest producers could make money, forcing it to place Bald Hill into care and maintenance and focus on cost‑cutting at Wodgina and Mt Marion. ^[17]

By Q4 FY25:

Attributable spodumene production across Wodgina and Mt Marion was 144kt, with shipments of 135kt.
The weighted average realised price was US$642/dmt SC6, down 24% quarter‑on‑quarter.
However, prices had “strengthened markedly since June”, with the company selling some parcels close to US$800–900/dmt SC6 after quarter‑end. ^[18]

In Q1 FY26, that rebound accelerated:

Attributable SC6‑equivalent production was 137kt, with 142kt sold.
The average realised price jumped 31% quarter‑on‑quarter to US$849/dmt. ^[19]

MinRes managing director Chris Ellison leaned into this shift at the company’s AGM in November 2025. According to Stockhead’s coverage of the meeting: ^[20]

MinRes recently sold cargoes at around US$1,250/t SC6, compared with about US$600/t in early June.
Ellison told shareholders the company is now “bullish on lithium”, arguing that supply deficits could emerge as soon as 2026, driven not just by electric vehicles but by surging energy‑storage (ESS) demand.
He highlighted that lithium prices “come back incredibly quickly” once sentiment turns.

Those comments align with broader research from banks such as J.P. Morgan, which now expects ESS demand to pull the global lithium market into deficit, and maintains a neutral rating on MinRes with a A$45 price target in a late‑October 2025 note. ^[21]

In parallel, MinRes has agreed to sell a 15% stake in each of Wodgina and Mt Marion to POSCO (equivalent to 30% of its 50% interests), for roughly US$765 million (about A$1.2 billion), with proceeds earmarked for debt reduction. ^[22]

This transaction:

Reduces MinRes’ share of future lithium EBITDA,
But substantially improves balance sheet flexibility, and
Brings in a well‑capitalised strategic partner at a price above what many analysts had assumed the assets were worth. ^[23]

Balance sheet repair, credit rating upgrade and governance reset

Credit: Fitch moves MinRes back to a Stable outlook

On 20 November 2025, Fitch Ratings revised MinRes’ Issuer Default Rating outlook to “Stable” from “Negative”, while affirming the rating at ‘BB‑’. ^[24]

Key points from Fitch’s rationale:

The POSCO lithium stake sale and the Onslow Iron ramp‑up are expected to reduce net debt materially and strengthen cash generation.
Fitch projects EBITDA net leverage falling from about 7.7x in FY25 to around 2.7x in FY26, assuming successful execution and commodity prices near its base case.
The agency also noted a shift toward greater capital discipline, particularly lower capex after the heavy investment phase at Onslow Iron. ^[25]

MinRes has also refinanced US$700m of 8.125% notes due 2027 with new 7.000% notes due 2031, pushing out its maturity wall; the first major bond now falls due in November 2027, giving management breathing room to deleverage. ^[26]

Governance: board renewal and a longer runway for Ellison

MinRes has been under scrutiny for governance and related‑party issues, including unreported transactions and the structure of some arrangements benefiting Chris Ellison. Independent reviews by King & Wood Mallesons and Elizabeth Broderick & Co. have led to a program to terminate or restructure most related‑party arrangements by FY26. ^[27]

In 2025 the company:

Appointed Malcolm Bundey as independent non‑executive chair and added several new independent directors, including Lawrie Tremaine, Ross Carroll, Susan Ferrier and Colin Moorhead. ^[28]
Emphasised a multi‑stage CEO succession process run with search firm Korn Ferry, focused on building organisational support rather than treating succession as a single event. ^[29]

At the AGM, Bundey effectively scrapped the earlier 12–18 month timeline to replace Ellison, and local media have since reported that the founder‑CEO is now expected to remain in the role for the foreseeable future. ^[30]

AGM voting showed 13.6% of shares opposing the remuneration report – a protest, but well below the 25% “strike” threshold under Australian rules – and equity‑based incentives for Ellison and the chair were approved. ^[31]

Meanwhile, Australian press has highlighted ongoing regulatory and safety scrutiny, including investigations related to previous incidents at Onslow Iron and broader concerns about board‑level turnover and corporate culture. ^[32]

What are analysts and models forecasting for ASX: MIN?

If you only looked at the share price, you might think the market had reached a clear verdict. The analysts, however, are anything but unanimous.

Broker and consensus targets

Across major data providers, the picture looks like this:

Investing.com (13 analysts):
- Consensus rating: Neutral (4 Buy, 4 Hold, 5 Sell)
- Average 12‑month price target: A$45.82
- Range: A$17.3 – A$68
- Implied downside vs current price: around –2.7%. ^[33]
TradingView (14 analysts for price target, 15 for rating):
- Average 1‑year target: A$46.61
- Range: A$17.30 – A$64.00
- Overall rating: Neutral. ^[34]
Fintel/Nasdaq:
- Average one‑year target: A$44.42, recently revised up 19.3% from A$37.24.
- Range: A$17.47 – A$61.95.
- That average sat about 12% below the then‑current price of A$50.74 when the note was published on 17 November 2025. ^[35]
Simply Wall St reports the consensus price target nudged up from A$36.60 to about A$37.51, with revenue growth expectations trimmed but margin forecasts improved, underscoring how sensitive valuations are to small changes in earnings assumptions. ^[36]

Named broker calls in recent months include:

J.P. Morgan: Neutral, A$45 target, emphasising lithium moving back toward deficit as ESS demand grows. ^[37]
Macquarie: Underperform, A$43.63 target as of 10 October 2025, citing strong Onslow performance offset by lithium headwinds and heavy capex; the bank broadly aligns with MinRes’ volume guidance for FY26. ^[38]
A Motley Fool Australia summary in mid‑November noted another broker lifting its target from A$38 to A$47 while maintaining an outperform rating after MIN shares rallied more than 20% in a week. ^[39]
Jarden remains one of the more bearish houses, with recent target price updates down near the A$17–23 range and a Sell recommendation. ^[40]

Overall, the centre of gravity for 12‑month price targets sits in the mid‑A$40s, slightly below the current share price, but with a very wide spread reflecting deep disagreement on:

How sustainable current iron ore and lithium prices are, and
How quickly MinRes can deleverage and normalise capital spending.

Near‑term earnings forecasts

TradingView’s aggregate data suggests: ^[41]

Last reported quarterly EPS was –A$0.48, worse than the consensus estimate of –A$0.26.
Analysts expect EPS to rebound to around A$0.96 next quarter.
Next‑quarter revenue is forecast at roughly A$2.9 billion, significantly higher than the June‑quarter run‑rate, reflecting full contribution from Onslow Iron, higher iron ore prices, and improved lithium pricing.

Those projections assume no major commodity price shock and continued operational stability at Onslow and the lithium operations.

Technical and quantitative models

On the technical side, StockInvest currently classifies MinRes as a short‑term “buy candidate”, with the shares trading in the upper part of a rising short‑term trend channel and both short and long moving averages trending higher. Its models suggest a possible 30–35% upside over the next three months, though with elevated volatility and risk of sharp corrections. ^[42]

This kind of purely price‑based forecast should be treated as momentum commentary, not fundamental valuation – but it helps explain why traders have been quick to buy dips since the April lows.

Sector backdrop: iron ore steady, lithium turning

MinRes does not operate in a vacuum. The macro backdrop for its two main commodities is mixed:

Iron ore
- Canaccord Genuity recently reiterated a broadly neutral view on iron ore, expecting prices to hover around US$100/t in 2025 and easing to about US$90/t from 2026 onwards, noting risks from new supply at Guinea’s Simandou project and ongoing weakness in global steel demand. ^[43]
- That profile broadly matches the realised prices MinRes is currently reporting (US$79–90/dmt), suggesting limited tailwind from further price appreciation unless China launches sizeable new stimulus. ^[44]
Lithium
- After a 90% price collapse from late‑2022 peaks to mid‑2025 lows, lithium prices have rallied sharply in the second half of 2025, with spot cargoes of SC6 concentrate now changing hands around US$1,200–1,250/t, according to AGM commentary and peer auction results. ^[45]
- Major banks, including J.P. Morgan, are beginning to model market deficits from around 2026, driven increasingly by grid‑scale energy‑storage demand on top of EV growth. ^[46]

For MinRes, that combination – stable iron ore, recovering lithium – is about as constructive as management could reasonably hope for given the events of the last two years.

Key catalysts to watch into 2026

Investors tracking ASX:MIN over the next 12–18 months are likely to focus on a small set of measurable milestones:

Onslow Iron performance and cash generation
- Can Onslow sustain 35 Mtpa at or below guidance costs (low‑60s A$/wmt FOB), and does it continue to generate strong free cash flow after interest and sustaining capex? ^[47]
Execution of the POSCO lithium stake sale
- Timely completion and application of proceeds directly to debt reduction would materially improve leverage ratios and may prompt further positive credit actions. ^[48]
Lithium price trajectory
- Every A$100–200/dmt swing in spodumene pricing has a meaningful impact on MinRes EBITDA, particularly once debt falls and the balance sheet is less stretched. ^[49]
Further governance developments
- Progress on winding down related‑party arrangements, any outcome from regulatory inquiries, and clarity on long‑term leadership will all influence the valuation multiple investors are prepared to pay. ^[50]
Macro and ASX sentiment
- UBS and others expect the broader ASX to grind higher into 2026 after recent volatility, with mining stocks playing a central role in earnings growth – but that optimism rests on stable global growth and no severe commodity downturn. ^[51]

Main risks for Mineral Resources investors

Despite the improved outlook, MinRes remains high‑risk compared with more mature, single‑commodity majors:

Commodity price risk: Sharp reversals in iron ore or lithium prices would rapidly feed into cash flow and leverage metrics.
High capital intensity: The company’s strategy of building integrated “pit‑to‑port” supply chains is capital‑heavy; mis‑steps or cost overruns could erode returns. ^[52]
Leverage and refinancing: Although debt metrics are expected to improve, MinRes is still running several billion dollars of net debt and retains a sub‑investment‑grade (‘BB‑’) rating. ^[53]
Governance and key‑person risk: Ellison’s continued central role is both a strength (experience, deal‑making) and a risk (regulatory focus, concentration of influence, succession uncertainty). ^[54]
Regulatory and ESG scrutiny: Safety incidents, environmental impacts and treatment of stakeholders can all influence licensing, community support and investor appetite, particularly among institutional funds with strict ESG mandates. ^[55]

For these reasons, many analysts are comfortable calling the stock “Neutral” at current levels even while acknowledging substantial upside if everything breaks right.

Bottom line: a re‑rated stock with plenty still to prove

As of 1 December 2025, Mineral Resources looks like a very different company to the one that spooked the market in early 2025:

Onslow Iron is running at nameplate capacity and unlocking milestone payments.
Lithium prices have staged a powerful rebound, and management is openly bullish again on the long‑term demand story.
Balance sheet repair is underway, with asset sales and improved operations prompting a Fitch outlook upgrade to Stable.
Board renewal is in progress, though governance and leadership questions are far from fully resolved. ^[56]

The share price already reflects a large part of this turnaround, now trading in the mid‑A$40s to high‑A$40s compared with lows near A$14 earlier in the year. Consensus targets clustered in the mid‑A$40s suggest limited upside on average, but the very wide dispersion of valuations – from the high‑teens to the high‑60s – underlines how differently market participants view the same set of facts. ^[57]

For investors watching ASX:MIN, the story from here is simple but not easy: can MinRes convert its engineering and logistics wins at Onslow and its lithium timing call into sustainable cash flow and a cleaner balance sheet, while convincing the market that its governance has truly turned a corner?