New York, Jan 22, 2026, 04:51 EST — Premarket.
- Moderna shares were little changed premarket after a 15.8% jump in the prior session
- Investors latched onto five-year melanoma follow-up data for Moderna’s personalised cancer vaccine with Merck
- Vaccine-policy uncertainty in the U.S. is adding another layer of risk for the sector
Moderna shares were flat at $49.81 in premarket trading on Thursday, after the stock jumped 15.8% in the previous session.
The rally followed fresh five-year follow-up data on Moderna’s experimental personalised cancer vaccine used with Merck’s blockbuster immunotherapy Keytruda in high-risk melanoma, the companies said.
The move matters because Moderna is still trying to replace shrinking COVID-19 vaccine revenue with new products. Investors have been quick to reward any sign its mRNA technology can travel well beyond respiratory shots.
In the update, the companies said the vaccine-Keytruda combination cut the risk of recurrence or death by 49% versus Keytruda alone. The trial’s main yardstick was “recurrence-free survival” — basically, how long patients stay free of returning cancer. Merck.com
“If Moderna can recreate this 49% risk reduction in the much larger phase 3 trial, that bodes well for not only commercialization in melanoma but also prospects” in other cancers, Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen said. UBS analyst Michael Yee said the benefit needs to be confirmed in the late-stage study and expects more data later this year based on trial progress. Reuters
Jefferies analysts have estimated the therapy could be priced in line with Keytruda, around $200,000, and could reach multi-billion-dollar peak sales in melanoma alone.
“Today’s results highlight the potential of a prolonged benefit,” Moderna oncology head Kyle Holen said in a joint statement with Merck, adding the partners are looking ahead to their Phase 3 readout in adjuvant melanoma. Merck’s Marjorie Green called the five-year data “a meaningful milestone,” and said the companies are also running additional Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies across tumour types. Merck.com
But the trade has risks, and they are not just clinical. Sweeping U.S. vaccine-policy changes under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are rattling the sector, with investors and executives warning demand could become less predictable — a bigger issue for vaccine-heavy biotechs like Moderna than for larger drugmakers.
For now, traders will watch whether Wednesday’s spike holds once regular trading opens, and whether there is follow-through across other vaccine or biotech names tied to U.S. policy headlines.
Next up, Moderna is due to hold its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call on Feb. 13, when investors will press for an update on cash use, 2026 sales expectations and the timing of late-stage oncology data.
