NEW YORK, Jan 12, 2026, 10:25 (ET) — Regular session
Moderna (MRNA.O) shares dropped roughly 4% on Monday following the release of updated revenue and expense forecasts ahead of a healthcare investor event. The stock fell $1.38 to $32.92, after starting the day at $34.40 and fluctuating between $35.77 and $32.81.
This update is crucial as Moderna works to transition from its COVID windfall to a more reliable lineup of seasonal vaccines. Investors are focused on whether the company’s cost-cutting efforts will provide enough runway for upcoming approvals and late-stage trial results.
Vaccination demand jitters have sent the stock spinning, and the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference offers one of the earliest major chances this year for the company to recalibrate investor expectations.
Moderna projects around $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025, topping the midpoint of its previous $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion range by $100 million. It also forecast GAAP operating expenses between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion for the year; GAAP refers to U.S. accounting standards. CEO Stéphane Bancel noted a $2 billion reduction in operating expenses for 2025 and reaffirmed plans to develop a “seasonal vaccine franchise” targeting at-risk populations. The company maintained its goal of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, expecting GAAP operating costs near $4.9 billion, with further expense cuts planned for 2027, aiming to reach cash breakeven in 2028. SEC
Moderna’s CFO Jamey Mock told Reuters that U.S. retail vaccination rates dipped about 26% in 2025, landing near the low end of their earlier forecast. That drop helped push sales toward the top of the company’s expected range. The firm anticipates finishing 2025 with roughly $8.1 billion in cash, which includes $600 million drawn from a five-year, $1.5 billion loan arranged with Ares Management. To put that in perspective, Moderna reported $18.4 billion in revenue back in 2022 during the pandemic. Mock noted that a 10% increase on the 2025 revenue base would suggest around $2.1 billion in sales for 2026 — though he stressed, “we’re not guiding that officially right now.” Moderna is also eyeing key 2026 data, including late-stage results for its norovirus vaccine and mid-stage findings for a cancer vaccine it’s co-developing with Merck. Reuters
Despite the revenue boost, the market remains focused on a business that contracted significantly once COVID-driven demand eased. Monday’s selloff signals investors expect more than just modest beats—and sooner rather than later.
The respiratory vaccine market is packed, with Pfizer and partner BioNTech holding firm as leaders in COVID shots. Meanwhile, others like Novavax are battling to carve out their slice. Moderna’s strategy? Bundling products and bringing flu vaccines into the fold to hold onto customers.
But the trajectory hinges on regulators and data. Any hold-up in approvals or a stumble in a key trial—those crucial late-stage studies that usually back an application—would put the 2026 growth target at risk.
Moderna’s presentation later Monday should shed light on the timeline for its flu and combo vaccines, and whether we’ll see additional cost reductions. The next major event to watch is the Feb. 13 earnings call, where the company will unveil its Q4 and full-year 2025 results and refresh its guidance.
