Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLZ)—the global snacks company behind brands such as Oreo, Ritz, Cadbury, and Toblerone—traded lower on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, as investors continued to weigh commodity-cost pressures, softer demand signals in some markets, and a steady drumbeat of analyst target revisions. As of 19:56 UTC (2:56 p.m. ET), MDLZ was at $53.625, down 0.64% on the day, after trading between $53.495 and $54.32.
While there was no major company-issued breaking announcement on Dec. 17 itself, the day’s coverage clustered around two themes: (1) renewed attention from Wall Street strategy notes (notably Jefferies), and (2) fresh institution-by-institution positioning updates coming through 13F-related reporting.
Below is a comprehensive look at today’s (17.12.2025) headlines and the most current forecasts and analyses shaping the MDLZ narrative—plus what investors are watching next.
MDLZ stock today: trading near the lows as sentiment stays cautious
MDLZ entered the session hovering close to its recent trough. MarketBeat’s Dec. 17 coverage described shares trading around $53.97 early in the session and noted the stock was sitting near its 12‑month low zone (MarketBeat cited a twelve‑month low of $53.13 and twelve‑month high above $71). [1]
Intraday pricing from market data showed a similar picture: MDLZ’s 52-week low was $53.13, and the stock remained pinned close to that level for much of the day.
This matters because the setup going into 2026 is increasingly framed as a tug-of-war between:
- Defensive-category resilience (snacking tends to hold up better than discretionary spending), and
- Margin risk (especially cocoa), plus evidence of consumer pushback after multiple years of pricing.
That tension underpins most of the “buy-the-dip vs. wait-it-out” debate around Mondelez right now.
Today’s key news on Dec. 17, 2025: Jefferies highlight + three notable institutional position changes
1) Jefferies keeps Mondelez among preferred large-cap food picks
A Jefferies note dated December 12 and circulated in market coverage on December 17 kept Mondelez among Jefferies’ “preferred large-cap selections” in the food industry. The thesis, as summarized in today’s reporting: despite ongoing consumer challenges that may extend into 2026, there is potential for second-half upside if demand-focused initiatives begin to work and the industry gets beyond peak pressure. [2]
Jefferies also flagged a set of macro/policy uncertainties that could influence the category in 2026, including tariff volatility, revisions to SNAP eligibility, and possible demand effects from GLP‑1 weight-loss medications in pill form—while favoring companies with margin improvement potential and levers for organic growth. [3]
In other words: Jefferies’ stance is constructive, but not blind to why the stock has been weak.
2) Sanders Morris Harris LLC sharply increased its MDLZ stake (13F-related)
One of the more eye-catching institution notes published today: Sanders Morris Harris LLC increased its Mondelez position by 553.1% in Q3, ending the quarter with 23,054 shares after buying 19,524 shares, with the position valued around $1.44 million in the filing summary. [4]
Importantly, these are quarterly holdings disclosures—useful for tracking institutional interest, but not real-time conviction trades.
3) Texas Permanent School Fund Corp reduced its MDLZ holdings
MarketBeat also reported that Texas Permanent School Fund Corp cut its stake by 35.2% (a reduction of 49,376 shares) and held 90,871 shares valued about $6.13 million in its referenced filing summary. [5]
4) Thurston Springer Miller Herd & Titak Inc. slashed its position
A separate MarketBeat item published Dec. 17 said Thurston Springer Miller Herd & Titak Inc. reduced its stake by 93.0% in Q3, selling 47,967 shares and retaining 3,596 shares valued around $225,000 per the report’s key points. [6]
What to take from the three filings: Institutional ownership remains high overall (MarketBeat cited 78.32% institutional ownership), but positioning is mixed—some investors are adding aggressively while others are trimming or exiting. [7]
Analyst forecasts as of Dec. 17, 2025: “Moderate Buy,” targets clustered in the high-$60s
Despite the stock’s slide toward its 52-week lows, aggregated Wall Street targets remain meaningfully higher than the current price.
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot (based on 22 analysts over the last 12 months) shows:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Rating mix: 14 Buys / 7 Holds / 1 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target:$67.95 (about 26.76% upside from ~$53.61 in MarketBeat’s calculation)
- Target range:$52 low to $84 high [8]
Today’s Jefferies-related coverage also referenced a median price target of $69 and stated that 71% of analysts rate the stock “Buy” or equivalent (as of Dec. 12 in that summary). [9]
Notable recent target moves mentioned in current coverage
A recurring pattern in December coverage has been price targets coming down, even when ratings stay constructive. For example, the Jefferies recap mentioned:
- Piper Sandler trimming its target to $62 (Neutral) (reported as dated Nov. 21) [10]
- Morgan Stanley reaffirming a Buy with a $64 target (dated Dec. 11 in that recap) [11]
Meanwhile, earlier in December, MarketBeat wrote that MDLZ hit a new 52‑week low and summarized multiple target trims (examples listed included UBS, Mizuho, and RBC in that article). [12]
Bottom line on forecasts: Street models still imply upside, but the downgrade/trim cadence suggests analysts want clearer evidence that the “cocoa + demand” pressure cycle is easing before they re-expand valuation assumptions.
Dividend: $0.50 quarterly, ex-dividend Dec. 31, payable Jan. 14
One stabilizer for MDLZ investors is shareholder return. MarketBeat’s Dec. 17 items reiterated that Mondelez declared a $0.50 quarterly dividend, annualized to $2.00, with an ex-dividend date of Dec. 31 and payment on Jan. 14. [13]
At roughly $53.63 per share, a $2.00 annual dividend implies an approximate forward yield of ~3.7% (2.00 ÷ 53.63 ≈ 0.037). [14]
For income-oriented investors, that yield can help offset some volatility—but it doesn’t solve the core question: when do margins recover enough to re-rate the stock?
Why MDLZ has been under pressure: 2025’s cocoa and demand headlines still dominate the narrative
To understand why MDLZ is trading where it is in mid-December 2025, it helps to revisit the company’s major 2025 inflection points—especially those tied to cocoa and volume trends.
October: Mondelez cut its 2025 adjusted EPS outlook further
In late October, Reuters reported that Mondelez cut its annual profit forecast as shoppers pulled back on “pricey chocolates and snacks” in North America and Europe amid higher cocoa costs. Reuters said Mondelez expected 2025 adjusted EPS to decline about 15%, worse than its prior target of a 10% fall, and that it also tempered its organic net revenue growth outlook to 4%+ from about 5% previously forecast in July. [15]
Reuters also reported notable volume pressure in that quarter—volumes fell 7.5 percentage points in Europe and 1.8 percentage points in North America, according to the article. [16]
February: Cocoa costs hit margins and the company guided to a profit decline
Earlier in the year, Reuters reported Mondelez forecast 2025 adjusted profit down 10%, compared with analysts’ average expectation of a 6.7% decline, driven in part by surging cocoa prices. Reuters also cited a 650-basis-point decline in adjusted gross margin to 31.5% amid cocoa and transportation costs. [17]
July: A quarter beat, but cautious tone remained
In Q2, Reuters reported Mondelez beat revenue and profit estimates on strong international demand, but shares still dipped after hours because the company maintained its annual outlook at the time (organic net revenue growth about 5%, adjusted profit decline 10%). [18]
Why this matters in today’s stock setup: These three checkpoints show the market’s problem: even when Mondelez executes, the bar is being set by input costs and volume elasticity, not just revenue beats.
Operational efficiency angle: AI-driven marketing cost cuts could become a 2026 lever
One of the more tangible cost-structure stories in recent months came from Reuters reporting that Mondelez is using a generative AI tool aimed at cutting marketing content production costs by 30% to 50%, with Reuters citing an investment of more than $40 million in the tool. [19]
If those savings scale and avoid brand-quality pitfalls, they could provide incremental margin relief—especially important in a year when cocoa remains a swing factor.
Risk watch: recall headlines, policy swings, and litigation are part of the backdrop
FDA-posted recall notice: limited Ritz peanut butter recall tied to labeling/allergen risk
On Dec. 2, 2025, the U.S. FDA posted a company announcement (as a public service) describing a limited voluntary recall by Mondelez Global LLC involving 70 cases of Ritz Peanut Butter Cracker Sandwiches in eight states due to a risk of undeclared peanut exposure from incorrect labeling. The notice emphasized the recall was limited to one SKU and that no injuries or illnesses had been reported to date. [20]
From a stock perspective, this appears operationally limited, but it underscores the ongoing need for tight quality controls—especially when brand trust is central to pricing power.
Litigation/ESG disputes: not today’s catalyst, but still monitored
Reuters also reported in late October that Mondelez defeated a proposed “greenwashing” lawsuit tied to “climate neutral certified” labeling for certain Clif Bar products. [21]
These issues are typically not day-to-day stock drivers unless they escalate, but they can influence reputational risk and headline volatility.
The MDLZ bull vs. bear case heading into 2026
What bulls point to
- Iconic brands + global reach: Mondelez sells snack brands across more than 150 countries and reported 2024 net revenues of about $36.4 billion in a company announcement reposted by FDA. [22]
- Analyst upside remains meaningful: many targets still sit in the mid-to-high $60s. [23]
- Dividend yield near ~3.7% at today’s price level can support total return while investors wait. [24]
- Potential margin levers: easing commodity pressure (if/when it happens) plus efficiency initiatives such as AI-driven marketing production. [25]
What bears worry about
- Cocoa remains the headline swing variable, and Mondelez has already guided to meaningful profit pressure in 2025. [26]
- Volume weakness in key regions can persist if consumers continue trading down or reducing discretionary snack purchases. [27]
- Macro/policy noise (tariffs, SNAP changes, and GLP‑1-related demand shifts) could hit the broader packaged-food category in uneven ways in 2026. [28]
- Near-term technical trend: the stock has recently printed new lows and traded below key moving averages in December commentary. [29]
What to watch next for Mondelez stock
If you’re tracking MDLZ into year-end and early 2026, these are the catalysts most likely to reset expectations:
- Cocoa cost trajectory and hedging commentary (the fastest route to margin re-acceleration). [30]
- Volume vs. pricing mix in North America and Europe—whether promotions and pack architecture stabilize units without destroying margin. [31]
- Any update to the 2026 outlook framework, especially after the October reset to a deeper 2025 EPS decline. [32]
- Execution on productivity initiatives, including marketing cost initiatives described by Reuters. [33]
- Dividend follow-through and capital allocation—buybacks, leverage, and whether management uses the drawdown to accelerate repurchases (a key theme analysts sometimes debate). [34]
Bottom line
On December 17, 2025, the MDLZ stock story is less about a single headline and more about positioning: Jefferies’ preferred-pick framing, mixed institutional moves in disclosed filings, and a market still wrestling with whether 2025’s cocoa-driven margin squeeze is peaking or simply pausing. [35]
With MDLZ trading around the mid‑$50s and close to its 52‑week low, the gap between current price and Street targets is large—but so is the list of “show-me” items the market wants answered: cocoa, volumes, and a credible path to rebuilding margins. [36]
References
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