MongoDB (MDB) Stock Outlook: Q3 Earnings Shock, New CEO, AI Push and Wall Street Forecasts as of December 7, 2025

MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDB) heads into the second week of December 2025 riding a powerful post‑earnings rally, a fresh CEO appointment and a louder-than-ever artificial intelligence (AI) narrative. At around $410 per share as of the latest close, MongoDB trades just below its 52‑week high near $419 and carries a market capitalization of roughly $33 billion. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, earnings, AI strategy, leadership transition and analyst forecasts that are shaping the MDB stock story right now.

MongoDB (MDB) stock today: price, valuation and performance

Share price & size: MDB currently trades around $409–$410 per share, giving MongoDB a market cap of roughly $33.3 billion. ^[2]
52‑week range: The 52‑week high sits near $419.50, with the stock still almost 30% below its all‑time peak around $585 from 2021. ^[3]
Volatility: MongoDB’s beta is around 1.4, meaning it tends to move more than the overall market. ^[4]

A premium valuation

Multiple data providers show MongoDB trading at very rich multiples even after strong earnings:

Forward P/E: Around 75–90x next‑year earnings, depending on the data source and exact price snapshot. ^[5]
Price‑to‑sales (P/S): Roughly 14x trailing 12‑month revenue, close to the top of its historical range and slightly above or in line with other high‑growth software peers. ^[6]
Price‑to‑book (P/B): Around 11x, again signalling a growth‑stock premium. ^[7]

Zacks recently highlighted MongoDB’s forward P/E of about 89.6, well above the Internet‑Software industry average near 28.6, and a PEG ratio around 5.7 vs. an industry average of 1.9, underscoring how much future growth is already priced in. ^[8]

In short: MongoDB is priced like a high‑growth, high‑quality software leader, not a bargain bin stock.

Earnings recap: Q3 FY2026 beat, raise and AI demand

MongoDB’s latest catalyst was its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report for the quarter ended October 31, 2025, released in early December.

Headline numbers

According to the company and multiple coverage sources:

Revenue:
- $628.3 million, up 19% year‑over‑year, beating Wall Street expectations of roughly $594 million. ^[9]
Atlas cloud platform:
- Atlas revenue grew 30% YoY and now accounts for about 75% of MongoDB’s total revenue – a key sign that the company’s cloud business remains the growth engine. ^[10]
Profitability (non‑GAAP):
- Non‑GAAP earnings per share (EPS) came in around $1.32, up about 14% year‑over‑year and well ahead of consensus estimates near $0.81. ^[11]
- Non‑GAAP operating margin was roughly 20%, reflecting continued leverage as revenue scales. ^[12]
Customer base & cash:
- MongoDB added roughly 2,600 customers in Q3, bringing the total to more than 62,500 worldwide. ^[13]
- Free cash flow rose sharply year‑over‑year (Q3 free cash flow was reported around $140M), and the company ended the quarter with over $2 billion in cash and equivalents, giving ample balance‑sheet flexibility. ^[14]

Guidance: growth re‑accelerates

The company raised its full‑year outlook for FY2026:

Management now expects around 21% revenue growth for the full year, versus prior guidance of roughly 16–17%. ^[15]
Adjusted EPS is now projected to grow roughly 30–31% instead of being “roughly flat” as previously guided. ^[16]
For Q4 FY2026, MongoDB guided to revenue around $667.5 million, notably ahead of prior consensus estimates near $626 million. ^[17]

This “beat‑and‑raise” quarter – the second in a row after a strong Q2 – is a core reason Wall Street has turned more constructive on MDB.

Market reaction

Coverage from Investors Business Daily and other outlets noted that MongoDB shares jumped more than 15% in after‑hours trading immediately after the Q3 report, with intraday gains surpassing 20% as investors digested the improved outlook. ^[18]

Q2 had already been described as one of the company’s “strongest ever” quarters, with revenue up 24% to $591.4M, Atlas up 29%, and the stock soaring nearly 40% in a single session on August 27, 2025. ^[19]

Together, Q2 and Q3 have re‑established MongoDB as a top‑tier growth story in software – albeit one priced accordingly.

AI strategy: Voyage AI, vector search and MongoDB AMP

MongoDB’s investment case in late 2025 increasingly revolves around AI workloads and how well its database platform can power them.

Voyage AI and embedded intelligence

In 2025 MongoDB acquired Voyage AI, integrating its embedding and reranking models (such as voyage-context-3) directly into MongoDB’s stack. According to AI‑focused analysis, these models improved retrieval accuracy by roughly 22% compared with competing approaches and helped customers build AI apps up to 40% faster. ^[20]

MongoDB’s Model Context Protocol (MCP) Server and AI‑ready architecture are pitched as a way to let developers interact with data in natural language, handling unstructured data (text, images, sensor logs and more) inside the database itself – crucial for modern LLM and agentic AI workflows. ^[21]

Expanding AI ecosystem and startups

At the Ai4 2025 conference in Las Vegas, MongoDB announced a wide range of AI product innovations and partnerships under the banner “MongoDB Strengthens Foundation for AI Applications”: ^[22]

New Voyage AI models designed for context‑aware retrieval at attractive price–performance.
An expanded partner ecosystem including LangChain, LlamaIndex, Galileo (AI reliability and observability) and Temporal (durable execution and workflow orchestration). ^[23]
MongoDB said over 200,000 developers sign up for Atlas each month, and roughly 8,000 startups – including names like Laurel and Mercor – are now building AI projects on MongoDB. ^[24]

Vector search on self‑managed MongoDB

On September 17, 2025, at MongoDB.local NYC, the company announced that Search and Vector Search, previously available only in Atlas, are now also in public preview for MongoDB Community Edition and Enterprise Server. ^[25]

Key points from that launch:

Developers can now perform full‑text, semantic and hybrid search directly inside self‑managed MongoDB, without bolting on a separate search engine or vector database.
MongoDB positions its database as a long‑term “memory” for AI agents, supporting retrieval‑augmented generation (RAG) and agentic AI experiences across cloud and on‑prem environments. ^[26]

This move helps MongoDB compete not only with traditional databases but also with dedicated vector databases in the AI stack.

MongoDB AMP: AI‑powered application modernization

On September 16, 2025, MongoDB launched MongoDB AMP, an AI‑powered Application Modernization Platform aimed at helping enterprises refactor legacy systems into modern, scalable services. ^[27]

AMP combines:

An AI‑driven software platform that analyzes and transforms legacy code.
A delivery framework and specialist engineers to guide implementations.

Customers like IntellectAI, Lombard Odier and Bendigo Bank have already used AMP to modernize applications, reinforcing MongoDB’s positioning not just as a database, but as a broader data and modernization platform. ^[28]

Leadership transition: CJ Desai takes over as CEO

One of the biggest non‑financial headlines in 2025 has been MongoDB’s leadership change.

On November 3, 2025, MongoDB announced that long‑time CEO Dev Ittycheria will retire from the role after more than 11 years at the helm. Chirantan “CJ” Desai, a seasoned executive with experience at ServiceNow and Cloudflare, was appointed as President and CEO effective November 10, 2025. ^[29]

Key details:

Dev Ittycheria will remain on the Board of Directors and serve as an advisor to support the transition. ^[30]
Reuters reported that MongoDB shares rose about 5% on the leadership announcement, suggesting investors saw the transition as orderly rather than disruptive. ^[31]
A dedicated leadership transition call and transcript emphasized continuity in strategy, with Desai reiterating MongoDB’s ambition to be the “data platform of choice in the AI era.” ^[32]

Commentary from SaaS‑focused analysts has framed the move as the “end of an era” but largely not a strategic pivot: the company remains focused on Atlas growth, AI workloads and platform expansion, while investors will watch execution under Desai closely. ^[33]

Wall Street forecasts and MDB stock price targets

Consensus rating

MarketBeat’s latest update (December 7, 2025) shows that: ^[34]

41 analysts cover MongoDB.
Ratings distribution: 2 Strong Buy, 30 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell.
Overall consensus: “Moderate Buy”.

MongoDB also recently saw its IBD SmartSelect Composite Rating increased from 94 to 96, placing it among the top ~4% of stocks based on a blend of earnings and technical metrics, with an EPS Rating of 94 and an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of B (moderate institutional buying). ^[35]

Price targets

Different platforms report slightly different consensus price targets, but they all cluster in the low‑to‑mid $400s:

MarketBeat: Average 12‑month price target around $415, with a wide range (roughly $170–$525). ^[36]
StockAnalysis: Highlights recent bullish revisions, including:
- Argus: $340 → $488 (Strong Buy)
- Citigroup: $440 → $525 (Strong Buy)
- Goldman Sachs: $405 → $475 (Strong Buy)
- Baird: $335 → $500 (Buy)
- Morgan Stanley: $400 → $440 (Buy)
And reports a revenue forecast of ~$2.38B this year and $2.79B next year, with EPS expected to rise from about $3.75 to $4.35. ^[37]
GuruFocus: Based on 38 analysts, average price target around $430, with a high of $500 and a low near $250, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from recent prices. ^[38]
Nasdaq price‑target article: Recently cited an average target of about $440.55, up nearly 17% from a previous consensus, with target range stretching from roughly $252 to $551. ^[39]

Net‑net, Wall Street’s base case points to modest upside from current levels, but with very wide disagreement – classic for a high‑growth, high‑valuation name.

Earnings estimates and Zacks view

Zacks has highlighted a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions, assigning MongoDB a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). ^[40]

Recent Zacks commentary (before the Q3 beat) projected:

Full‑year FY2026 revenue around $2.35B+, growing high‑teens percentage vs. last year.
EPS in the $3.7+ range, turning consistently positive on a non‑GAAP and improving on GAAP basis. ^[41]

After Q3’s beat‑and‑raise, some of those estimates have already been creeping higher, and Motley Fool notes that consensus now points to roughly 19% compound annual revenue growth and high‑single‑digit EPS growth through fiscal 2028. ^[42]

Institutional positioning: big money is heavily involved

A new MarketBeat report on December 7, 2025 revealed that Amundi trimmed its MongoDB position by about 13.4% in Q2, selling roughly 142,000 shares and ending the quarter with 919,401 shares worth about $188 million – still around 1.13% of the company. ^[43]

At the same time:

Vanguard increased its stake by about 9.5% to over 8.5 million shares.
Geode, UBS Asset Management, Primecap and others also added, bringing institutional ownership to roughly 89% of the float. ^[44]

The picture: institutions are deeply committed, with some profit‑taking at the margins but overall strong ownership – another mark of a crowded, closely watched name.

Is MongoDB stock overvalued? What the analysis says

Not everyone is comfortable with MongoDB’s valuation, especially after the recent rally.

Bullish arguments

Bullish research from sources like Motley Fool, AInvest and several Wall Street banks make these points: ^[45]

Reacceleration + AI tailwinds
- Revenue growth bounced from mid‑teens back into the high‑teens/low‑20s, and Atlas growth at 30%+ suggests AI‑driven workloads are still ramping.
- Q2 and Q3 both beat and raised guidance with strong free cash flow, showing the model can scale profitably.
AI‑ready platform, not a point solution
- Embedded vector search, RAG‑friendly architecture, Voyage AI models and multi‑cloud support make MongoDB a central piece of the AI data infrastructure stack, rather than a niche AI tool. ^[46]
Durable competitive position
- MongoDB has an estimated ~22% NoSQL market share, millions of downloads and more than 62,000 customers, including many Fortune 100 enterprises. ^[47]
Improving profitability
- Over the last several years, MongoDB’s non‑GAAP gross margin has expanded into the mid‑70% range and operating margin into the mid‑teens, while free cash flow has turned strongly positive. ^[48]

From this perspective, bulls argue that MongoDB deserves a premium multiple as a “foundational AI data platform” rather than a typical software vendor.

Bearish and cautious views

On the other side, more cautious research – including several Seeking Alpha pieces like “MongoDB: Post‑Mortem of a Wrong Call, Fresh Sell With More Conviction” and “Good Q3 But Not A Buy Now” – points to several risks: ^[49]

Valuation stretch
- Forward P/E in the high‑70s to high‑80s and P/S around 14x are far above sector averages. Even if MongoDB executes well, multiple compression alone could cap returns.
GAAP profitability & dilution
- Despite strong non‑GAAP earnings, MongoDB is still not consistently profitable on a GAAP basis, partly due to heavy stock‑based compensation, which has increased share count by roughly 30–35% over five years. ^[50]
Competitive pressure
- Cloud hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) continue to enhance their own document and vector databases, while open‑source options like PostgreSQL also evolve. ^[51]
Macro and AI hype risk
- A slowdown in enterprise IT budgets or an “AI fatigue” phase could pressure consumption‑based Atlas revenue, especially given MongoDB’s premium pricing and the volatility seen in other AI‑driven software names. ^[52]

These analysts generally accept that MongoDB is a quality business, but question whether the current price fully reflects – or overshoots – realistic growth and margin paths.

MDB stock outlook: what to watch next

For investors following MongoDB after the December 7, 2025 news flow, a few themes stand out as key drivers for the stock over the next 12–24 months:

Sustaining 20%+ growth
- The market is now effectively pricing in high‑teens to low‑20s revenue growth and continued margin expansion. Any slowdown in Atlas growth, customer additions or AI workloads could quickly pressure the multiple. ^[53]
Execution under new CEO CJ Desai
- Desai inherits a business in strong shape but with high expectations. Investors will scrutinize how he balances product investment, profitability and M&A (especially around AI), while maintaining the culture and execution track record built under Dev Ittycheria. ^[54]
AI product adoption and monetization
- Adoption of Voyage AI models, vector search, MongoDB AMP and partner solutions (LangChain, LlamaIndex, Galileo, Temporal) will be key proof points that MongoDB’s AI story is more than marketing. Strong attach rates and usage metrics could justify elevated valuations; weak traction could do the opposite. ^[55]
Valuation vs. peers
- With many top‑tier software and AI names also trading at high multiples, relative valuation could matter as much as absolute. If sector multiples compress (for example due to higher rates or risk‑off sentiment), even strong operators like MongoDB could see share prices reset. ^[56]

Final thoughts (and a quick disclaimer)

MongoDB has entered December 2025 with:

Two consecutive blowout quarters and raised guidance.
A new AI‑centric product roadmap including vector search across Atlas and self‑managed deployments, plus an AI‑powered modernization platform.
A CEO transition that so far appears orderly, not disruptive.
And a consensus “Buy” rating from Wall Street, with price targets clustered just above the current share price but spread widely due to valuation debate.

At the same time, MongoDB’s stock is expensive by almost any traditional metric, and opinions are split between those who see it as a core infrastructure winner of the AI era and those who fear that expectations have run too far ahead of fundamentals.

This article is informational, not investment advice. Whether MDB belongs in a portfolio depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and view on both AI infrastructure and high‑multiple growth stocks. It’s wise to review the company’s official filings and earnings transcripts and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.