Updated: December 2, 2025
Key Takeaways
- MongoDB stock (NASDAQ: MDB) is up around 24–25% today, trading near $408 (intraday high about $419) and smashing through its prior 52‑week high around $385 after a major Q3 earnings beat and upgraded guidance. [1]
- Q3 FY2026 revenue came in at $628.3 million (+19% YoY) vs. roughly $593 million expected, while adjusted EPS hit $1.32 vs. Wall Street estimates around $0.79. Cloud product Atlas grew 30% YoY and is now ~75% of revenue, with free cash flow jumping to about $140 million from $35 million a year earlier. [2]
- Management raised full‑year FY2026 revenue guidance to $2.434–$2.439 billion (from $2.34–$2.36 billion previously) and guided Q4 revenue to roughly $667.5 million, well ahead of prior Street estimates near $626 million. [3]
- MongoDB’s AI story is front and center: Atlas is being positioned as a data and retrieval layer for AI workloads, powered in part by the Voyage AI acquisition, which brings advanced embedding and reranking models to reduce hallucinations in generative AI applications. [4]
- Wall Street has responded with a wave of price target hikes:
- Bernstein: $452 (Outperform) [5]
- Guggenheim: $450 (Buy) [6]
- Scotiabank: $415 (Sector Perform) [7]
- A host of others now sit between $450–$500, with some firms moving to a street‑high $500 target. TS2 Tech+1
- Even after today’s jump, analyst consensus remains bullish:
Below is a deep dive into the latest numbers, the AI narrative, Wall Street sentiment, and key risks around MongoDB stock.
Note: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
MongoDB Stock Today: Huge Post‑Earnings Move
As of Tuesday afternoon, December 2, 2025, MongoDB shares trade around $408, up roughly 24–25% on the day with intraday trading between about $400 and $419.
A few context points:
- 52‑week range:
- Low around $140.78
- Previous high near $385.44 [10]
- Before today’s spike, the 50‑day moving average sat near $333 and the 200‑day around $268, underscoring how sharp the re‑rating has been over the last 24 hours. [11]
- MarketBeat factsheet data (from just before the move) showed a market cap of ~$27 billion at ~$333 per share; today’s price implies a market value in the low‑$30 billion range, based on simple scaling. [12]
In short, MDB has gone from a strong 2025 performer to one of the day’s standout tech winners after earnings, with trading volume and social chatter surging across platforms. [13]
Inside MongoDB’s Q3 FY2026 Earnings Beat
MongoDB’s fiscal third quarter 2026 (for the three months ended October 31, 2025) marked a clear inflection point.
Headline Numbers
According to TIKR and multiple earnings recaps: [14]
- Revenue:
- $628.3 million, +19% YoY, comfortably above the roughly $593–594 million analysts were expecting.
- Adjusted EPS:
- $1.32 per share, nearly two times consensus estimates around $0.79–$0.81.
- Atlas (cloud) revenue:
- +30% YoY, now about 75% of total revenue.
- Profitability & cash flow:
The beat wasn’t just about one line item; MongoDB outperformed on revenue, margins, and cash generation all at once, which is exactly what growth investors have been craving in a rising‑rate, profitability‑focused environment.
Customer & Usage Metrics
MongoDB’s growth engine is still customer and workload driven, with several notable Q3 metrics: [17]
- ~2,600 net new customers in the quarter, bringing the base to over 62,500.
- The company now serves more than 70% of the Fortune 100, reflecting deep penetration into blue‑chip enterprises.
- Net revenue retention ticked up to around 120%, showing existing customers are expanding usage.
- Atlas added roughly 2,500 new logos, keeping the self‑service and digital‑native funnel healthy.
New CEO Chirantan “CJ” Desai highlighted particularly strong demand from large enterprises across the U.S. and EMEA, as well as from AI‑native startups building on Atlas. [18]
How Q1–Q3 FY2026 Set Up This Breakout
Q3’s performance builds on steadily improving results over the fiscal year:
- Q1 FY2026 (quarter ended April 30, 2025):
- Revenue $549.0 million, +22% YoY.
- Atlas +26% YoY, ~72% of revenue.
- 2,600 new customers; total above 57,100.
- Non‑GAAP EPS around $1.00, with GAAP still in modest loss territory. [19]
- Q2 FY2026 (quarter ended July 31, 2025):
- Revenue $591.4 million, +24% YoY, above guidance.
- Atlas +29% YoY, 74% of revenue.
- Management raised full‑year revenue guidance to $2.34–$2.36 billion and pointed to margin expansion. [20]
- Q3 FY2026:
- Revenue $628.3 million, +19% YoY.
- Atlas +30% YoY, 75% of revenue.
- Operating margin around 20%, FCF ~$140 million. [21]
The pattern is clear:
- Sequential revenue is climbing from ~$549M → ~$591M → ~$628M.
- Atlas growth is re‑accelerating, from 26% to 29% to 30%.
- Each quarter has given MongoDB room to raise guidance, culminating in today’s big reset.
Guidance Hike: FY2026 and Early FY2027 Signals
The guidance update is a major reason for today’s explosive move.
FY2026 Guidance
After Q3, MongoDB now expects FY2026: [22]
- Full‑year revenue:$2.434–$2.439 billion, up from prior $2.34–$2.36 billion.
- That implies ~19% YoY growth for the year (from FY2025 revenue of about $2.01 billion). [23]
For Q4 FY2026, management guided:
- Revenue of roughly $667.5 million, well above Street expectations near $626 million. [24]
- Atlas growth of about 27% YoY, with high single‑digit growth for non‑Atlas products. [25]
- Q4 operating margin guidance of 21%, far above the ~14% consensus previously embedded in models. [26]
Guggenheim and other analysts now see MongoDB comfortably clearing the “Rule of 40” (revenue growth + operating margin > 40%), a key benchmark for high‑quality SaaS and cloud names. [27]
Early View on FY2027
Bernstein’s note highlights that management also gave reassuring commentary on FY2027, indicating confidence in sustaining mid‑20s growth as AI workloads ramp and Atlas consumption stays strong. [28]
Guggenheim projects: [29]
- FY2026 revenue growth ≈ 23% (on their numbers).
- At least 25% growth in FY2027, with Atlas growth around 29% and stable or improving profitability.
Analyst forecast data from StockAnalysis is directionally similar, with consensus expecting: [30]
- Revenue this year: about $2.38B, up ~19%.
- Revenue next year: about $2.79B, another ~17% increase.
- EPS this year: ~$3.75, rising to $4.35 next year.
The AI Story: Atlas, Voyage AI and the Generative AI Land Grab
From Database to AI Data Platform
MongoDB has spent years positioning itself as a general‑purpose, non‑relational database optimized for modern, cloud‑native applications. Revenue grew from $166 million in 2018 to about $1.68 billion in 2024, largely on the back of Atlas, which was already about 76% of revenue by then. [31]
The shift to AI is turning that foundation into a bigger opportunity:
- MongoDB’s flexible document model and rich query capabilities make it well suited for unstructured and semi‑structured data that underpin many AI and analytics workloads. [32]
- Atlas now supports vector search and embeddings, enabling developers to build retrieval‑augmented generation (RAG) systems where LLMs call into MongoDB for relevant context. [33]
A recent Investors Business Daily deep‑dive framed MongoDB as one of the database vendors best positioned to ride the AI wave, especially as enterprises look beyond relational incumbents like Oracle and Microsoft to platforms that can handle AI‑heavy data patterns. [34]
Voyage AI Acquisition: Reducing AI Hallucinations
On February 24, 2025, MongoDB announced the acquisition of Voyage AI, a startup known for high‑precision embedding and reranking models used by AI leaders like Anthropic and LangChain. [35]
Key strategic points:
- Voyage AI’s models are being integrated deeply into MongoDB Atlas, starting with an auto‑embedding service for vector search and native reranking to improve retrieval quality. [36]
- The goal is to reduce hallucinations in AI applications by improving how data is retrieved and ranked before the model generates an answer. [37]
- Over time, Atlas will add multi‑modal retrieval (text, images, video) and domain‑specific AI capabilities for industries like finance, healthcare and law. [38]
This is why today’s earnings commentary and analyst reactions spend so much time on AI:
- A Seeking Alpha note on today’s move describes MongoDB as being in “prime position to run an increasing number of artificial intelligence applications on its Atlas platform”, with Atlas’ acceleration seen as evidence that AI workloads are beginning to show up in the numbers. [39]
Leadership Changes Aligned With AI Push
MongoDB is also refreshing its leadership for this next phase:
- CJ Desai became CEO on November 10, 2025, succeeding long‑time CEO Dev Ittycheria, who framed the change as part of a planned transition to “MongoDB 3.0.” [40]
- Mike Berry, formerly CFO at NetApp, took over as MongoDB’s CFO in May 2025, bringing deep experience in large‑scale software and infrastructure businesses. [41]
Analysts see this combination of technical positioning (Atlas + Voyage AI) and experienced operators as a key reason MongoDB has “found its AI mojo” over the course of 2025. [42]
Wall Street’s Latest Calls: Price Targets Race to Catch Up
Today’s rally is being reinforced by a flurry of fresh analyst notes:
Big Target Hikes
- Bernstein lifted its price target from $338 to $452 and kept an Outperform rating, citing:
- Q3 results and Q4 guidance both well above expectations.
- Encouraging commentary around fiscal 2027, removing a key overhang.
- MongoDB’s accelerating growth in a software sector where many peers are slowing. [43]
- Guggenheim raised its target from $400 to $450 (Buy), highlighting: [44]
- 30% Atlas growth, with new ARR accelerating.
- Net revenue retention of 120% and Atlas’ ability to land large enterprise workloads.
- Q4 Atlas growth guidance of 27% and operating margin guidance of 21%, far above consensus.
- A view that MongoDB is now comfortably above the Rule of 40 with room to keep compounding.
- Scotiabank moved its target from $320 to $415 while keeping a “Sector Perform” rating – effectively acknowledging the strong fundamentals but being more cautious on valuation. [45]
A TS2 Tech roundup shows a long list of other upgrades: TS2 Tech+2Investing.com+2
- Piper Sandler: Overweight, target to $490 (from $400).
- Baird: Outperform, target to $500 (from $335) – currently the street‑high.
- Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight, to $454 (from $406).
- RBC Capital: Outperform, to $450 (from $405).
- Rosenblatt: Buy, to $425 (from $385).
- Additional hikes from Stifel, Truist, Citizens, Wolfe Research and others cluster in the $450–$475 band.
Consensus Picture
Different aggregation platforms now paint a slightly different consensus, largely because targets lag price after such a big move:
- StockAnalysis:
- 37 covering analysts, “Strong Buy” consensus.
- Average 12‑month target ~ $392.27, with a range from $190 to $490.
- At today’s price, that average implies around 5% downside on paper, but the top end still suggests almost 20% upside. [46]
- GuruFocus:
- 38 analysts, average target roughly $374.73, high $440, low $250, and a consensus recommendation around 1.9 (“Outperform”) on a 1–5 scale. [47]
- MarketBeat:
- Reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target near $355, with one Sell, roughly ten Holds, and a large majority of Buy/Strong Buy ratings. [48]
The bottom line: sentiment is broadly bullish, but after today’s move, MDB trades above many earlier average targets and below the most aggressive $490–$500 calls. Expect these consensus numbers to re‑base higher as more models are updated to reflect the new guidance.
Ownership Trends: Hedge Funds Add, Insiders Trim
A separate piece of news today came from Spyglass Capital Management, a growth‑oriented fund, which significantly increased its stake: [49]
- Spyglass boosted its MongoDB position by 28% in Q2, to 345,127 shares, adding ~75,500 shares.
- MDB is now Spyglass’s 7th‑largest holding, about 4.2% of its portfolio, and roughly 0.42% of MongoDB’s shares outstanding.
- Across the shareholder base, about 89.3% of MongoDB stock is held by institutions and hedge funds, with insiders owning about 3.1%.
Insider activity has leaned toward profit‑taking:
- Over the past 90 days, insiders sold around 91,000 shares, worth just under $30 million at the time of their sales. [50]
This pattern—institutions adding while insiders trim—is fairly typical for a high‑growth tech stock that has rallied strongly, but it’s something long‑term investors tend to monitor carefully.
Valuation & Key Risks
With MongoDB’s stock now well above $400, the main bear case isn’t about growth—it’s about valuation and competition.
Rich Valuation vs. Fundamentals
- MarketBeat data (pre‑rally) showed a negative trailing GAAP P/E (~‑340), reflecting that MongoDB is only recently turning consistent non‑GAAP profits while GAAP results remain volatile. [51]
- Investing.com notes that, even before today’s spike, InvestingPro’s fair value models suggested MDB was trading above intrinsic value, and some new target hikes (like Guggenheim’s) explicitly acknowledge that the stock may be ahead of fundamentals in the short term. [52]
In other words, the bull case is now well understood, and a lot of it is priced in:
- Re‑accelerating Atlas growth.
- AI workloads scaling on MongoDB.
- Margin expansion and Rule‑of‑40 performance.
- Strong institutional sponsorship.
Any disappointment in growth, consumption trends, or AI monetization could hit a richly valued stock hard.
Competitive & Execution Risks
Analysts and industry coverage highlight several ongoing risks: [53]
- Open‑source and hyperscaler competition
- PostgreSQL‑based solutions and cloud‑native databases from hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) continue to improve, often at aggressive price points.
- MongoDB must justify its premium with developer experience, performance and AI‑centric capabilities.
- AI hype vs. real revenue
- While AI is clearly helping Atlas consumption, there’s still uncertainty around how fast AI projects move from POCs to large, recurring workloads.
- If AI‑driven demand slows or customers consolidate around other stacks, growth expectations for MongoDB could prove too optimistic.
- Macro and IT spending
- OECD and macro forecasters expect global growth to slow in 2026, posing a potential headwind for enterprise software budgets. [54]
- MongoDB is somewhat insulated by mission‑critical workloads but not immune if large customers delay expansions.
- Leadership transition risk
- While CJ Desai and Mike Berry bring strong pedigrees, MongoDB is entering a phase where flawless execution matters—both in AI product integration (Voyage AI) and in maintaining the balance between growth and profitability.
MongoDB Stock Outlook: What to Watch Next
Given today’s surge, MongoDB is now trading as a premium, AI‑levered growth name. From a news and fundamentals standpoint, a few key themes will likely drive the stock over the next 12–18 months:
- Atlas Growth & AI Workloads
- Does Atlas growth stay near high‑20s / low‑30s as guided, or fade back toward low‑20s?
- How quickly do Voyage AI‑powered features (auto‑embedding, native reranking, multimodal retrieval) show up as tangible upsell and new customer wins? [55]
- Consumption Trends & Net Expansion
- Watch metrics like net revenue retention, new logos per quarter, and commentary on consumption patterns. A sustained NRR around or above 120% would reinforce the bull case. [56]
- Margin Expansion and Cash Generation
- Management is now guiding Q4 non‑GAAP operating margins above 20%; the Street will look for steady or improving margins in FY2027 while revenue growth remains in the mid‑20s. [57]
- Competitive Position in AI Databases
- Independent coverage (IBD, industry analysts) already lists MongoDB among the leading AI data platforms, but this is a rapidly evolving market. How MongoDB stacks up against vector databases, cloud‑native stores and open‑source ecosystems will be crucial. [58]
- Valuation Reset vs. Earnings Growth
- With the stock now above many pre‑rally targets, future returns are likely to depend heavily on MongoDB beating its own raised guidance, not just hitting it.
- Any slip would give valuation skeptics more ammunition, while continued outperformance could legitimize those $490–$500 bull‑case targets. StockAnalysis+3TS2 Tech+3Investing.com+3
Final Word
As of December 2, 2025, MongoDB is one of the clearest market examples of how AI + strong execution can re‑rate a software stock overnight.
- The fundamentals look better: accelerating Atlas growth, rising margins, and stronger guidance through FY2026 with positive early signals for FY2027.
- The AI narrative is robust: Voyage AI integration, vector search and RAG capabilities, and a database strategy specifically tailored for AI data and retrieval.
- The risks are mostly about price and competition: MDB is now priced like a top‑tier AI infrastructure winner, and expectations are correspondingly high.
For investors and traders following AI and cloud infrastructure names, MongoDB (MDB) is now firmly back on the “must‑watch” list—but it’s also a reminder that big upside days often come after months of quieter, compounding execution in the background.
Again, nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell MongoDB; it’s a synthesis of the latest news, earnings, and analyst commentary to help you understand why MDB is moving today and what could drive the next leg.
References
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