Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock: Nasdaq-100 Addition, Dividend Update, and Fresh Analyst Forecasts as AI Data-Center Demand Builds

Dec. 20, 2025 — Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: MPWR) is ending 2025 in the spotlight after a cluster of catalysts that tends to matter for momentum-driven and fundamentals-driven investors alike: the stock is set to join the Nasdaq-100, the company reaffirmed its quarterly dividend, and Wall Street’s latest notes continue to frame MPWR as a key beneficiary of the AI data-center buildout—a theme that has been reshaping semiconductor leadership over the past year. ^[1]

MPWR last traded around $937 (late Friday U.S. time), valuing the company at roughly $44 billion in market capitalization. The stock remains below its 52-week high of $1,123.38, but well above the 52-week low of $582.38—a range that captures both the strength of the AI-linked trade and the volatility that often comes with premium semiconductor names.

Below is what the latest news, company guidance, and analyst forecasts look like as of Dec. 20, 2025, and what investors are watching next.

Why MPWR stock is in focus right now

Three developments dominate the current MPWR narrative:

Nasdaq-100 inclusion (effective Dec. 22)
Nasdaq’s annual Nasdaq-100 reconstitution takes effect before market open on Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, and Monolithic Power Systems is among the six additions. ^[2]
Dividend reaffirmation for Q4 2025
MPS declared its fourth-quarter dividend of $1.56 per share, payable Jan. 15, 2026, to stockholders of record as of Dec. 31, 2025. ^[3]
AI data-center power demand remains the growth engine
In its most recent quarter, MPS tied enterprise-data momentum to AI applications, and Reuters highlighted the company as a supplier positioned to benefit as AI drives data-center expansion. ^[4]

Nasdaq-100 addition: what it could mean for MPWR shares

MPS will join the Nasdaq-100 as part of the index’s annual refresh, alongside Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Ferrovial, Insmed, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital, with six companies removed. ^[5]

For MPWR stock, Nasdaq-100 inclusion matters less as a “fundamental” change and more as a market-structure event:

Passive and benchmark buying: Funds that track the Nasdaq-100 typically adjust holdings around the effective date. That can create incremental demand (and sometimes short-term volatility) in the days around inclusion. ^[6]
Visibility and liquidity: Being added to a flagship large-cap tech-heavy index can increase visibility with institutions that screen by index membership.

None of this guarantees a sustained rally—index effects can be temporary, and the market often prices expectations early—but it helps explain why MPWR is showing up more frequently in “what’s moving” lists going into the last full trading week of the year. ^[7]

Dividend news: $1.56 per share declared for Q4 2025

Monolithic Power Systems announced a $1.56 per share quarterly cash dividend:

Record date: Dec. 31, 2025
Payment date: Jan. 15, 2026 ^[8]

At the current share price area (~$937), that dividend implies an annualized run-rate of $6.24 per share (four quarterly payments), which works out to a yield around 0.6%–0.7% depending on price and data provider. ^[9]

While MPWR’s dividend yield is modest, the signal many investors focus on is consistency: the board continuing the payout while the company invests heavily into the product roadmap that supports enterprise and AI-driven power demand.

The fundamental backdrop: record Q3 results and a Q4 outlook tied to AI demand

Q3 2025: record revenue and strong profitability

In its Q3 2025 earnings commentary, Monolithic Power Systems reported:

Revenue:$737.2 million (record quarter), up 10.9% sequentially and 18.9% year over year ^[10]
Non-GAAP EPS:$4.73 (also cited by Reuters) ^[11]
GAAP diluted EPS:$3.71 ^[12]
GAAP gross margin:55.1%; Non-GAAP gross margin:55.5% ^[13]

Enterprise Data: the AI-linked engine within the mix

A key datapoint for investors tracking the AI narrative is the Enterprise Data segment:

Enterprise Data revenue:$191.5 million in Q3 2025
Sequential growth:+33% vs. Q2 2025, which the company attributed primarily to higher sales of power management solutions for AI applications ^[14]
Enterprise Data represented about 26% of total Q3 revenue, up from 21.7% in Q2 (as stated in company commentary). ^[15]

MPS’s revenue diversification is still evident in the broader split. In Q3 2025, the company’s end-market revenue included Storage & Computing ($186.6M), Automotive ($151.5M), Communications ($79.9M), Consumer ($72.4M), and Industrial ($55.3M). ^[16]

Q4 2025 outlook: revenue $730M–$750M, margins steady

For the quarter ending Dec. 31, 2025, MPS guided:

Revenue:$730 million to $750 million
GAAP gross margin:54.9% to 55.5%
Non-GAAP gross margin:55.2% to 55.8%
GAAP operating expenses:$206.8M to $212.8M
Non-GAAP operating expenses:$145.5M to $149.5M ^[17]

Reuters reported the same revenue range and noted that the guidance was above the analyst average estimate at the time (LSEG). ^[18]

“AI infrastructure” isn’t just a customer story — MPS is investing internally too

One under-the-radar corporate headline this week: Fortinet and Arista Networks announced a joint secure AI data center solution that they said is deployed at Monolithic Power Systems, describing it as a blueprint for security and low-latency networking for AI infrastructure. The release includes a quote attributed to an MPS infrastructure/security leader describing the need to operate high-density GPU clusters confidently. ^[19]

This isn’t an earnings driver by itself, but it reinforces a key point: companies exposed to AI aren’t only selling into AI—many are also building AI capacity internally, which tends to keep “AI capex” and supporting infrastructure a live theme across the tech supply chain.

For broader context, Reuters reported this week that data-center dealmaking hit a record high in 2025, underscoring how persistent the investment cycle remains even as valuation debates intensify. ^[20]

Analyst forecasts: price targets move higher, but valuation remains the debate

Truist raises target to $1,375 and keeps a Buy rating

On Dec. 19, 2025, MarketBeat and GuruFocus both reported that Truist raised its price target to $1,375 (from $1,163) while keeping a Buy rating. ^[21]

Where consensus targets sit depends on the dataset

Forecasts for MPWR vary by provider and update cadence:

Fintel (via Nasdaq.com) showed an average one-year price target around $1,204.94 as of Dec. 6, 2025, with a range from $934.70 to $1,365.00. ^[22]
MarketBeat reported a consensus target price around $1,074.58, with the rating mix skewing toward buys (their dataset). ^[23]
GuruFocus separately summarized an average target around $1,181.32 (with a high estimate of $1,300 and low estimate of $925.45), again illustrating how targets shift with source and timing. ^[24]

The takeaway isn’t the exact dollar figure—it’s that analysts broadly continue to model MPWR as a premium semiconductor name with upside tied to enterprise data and AI power demand, while acknowledging that the stock’s strong run means valuation is a constant part of the discussion.

Stock performance check: strong year, recent volatility

MPWR’s price action into late December shows a typical pattern for high-multiple semiconductor leaders: strong longer-term gains, punctuated by sharp pullbacks.

Market data shows MPWR recently traded near $937, and is still meaningfully below the $1,123.38 52-week high.
MarketWatch noted that on Wednesday, Dec. 17, MPWR closed down 4.11% (to $912.25) and was about 18.79% below the 52-week high set on Oct. 29. ^[25]
MarketScreener’s quote page also indicated the stock was up materially for the year (as of Dec. 19 close). ^[26]

For investors, this sets up a familiar question: is late-2025 volatility a pause before another leg higher driven by AI-related power intensity, or the market reminding investors that even the best compounders can be repriced quickly when sentiment shifts?

Ownership and insider headlines: sales, gifts, and what they do (and don’t) imply

Several recent headlines centered on insider and institutional activity—worth noting, but also worth keeping in perspective:

MarketBeat highlighted “significant insider selling” in the context of the Truist target raise, and also referenced specific insider transactions. ^[27]
Separately, a StockTitan summary of a Form 4 said CEO Michael R. Hsing reported a gift transfer of 12,337 shares to a 501(c)(3) foundation (reported as a gift transaction). ^[28]
MarketBeat also reported that CFO Theodore Blegen sold 3,000 shares on Dec. 1 at an average price reported around $908.21. ^[29]

Insider transactions can occur for many reasons (tax planning, diversification, charitable giving). They are best interpreted in aggregate and alongside the fundamentals—especially for a company that, by its own reporting, remains focused on expanding AI-related power solutions while keeping margins resilient. ^[30]

What to watch next for MPWR stock

Heading into the final stretch of 2025 and the start of 2026, these are the practical catalysts most likely to matter for MPWR investors:

1) Nasdaq-100 inclusion trading dynamics (Dec. 22)

With the reconstitution effective prior to market open on Dec. 22, watchers will focus on volume, volatility, and whether the “index effect” is already priced in. ^[31]

2) Dividend timeline into year-end

The dividend is payable Jan. 15, 2026, to holders of record Dec. 31, 2025. Investors who care about dividend capture will be monitoring brokerage timelines and settlement conventions. ^[32]

3) Q4 results setup: can AI-driven Enterprise Data keep expanding?

MPS guided Q4 revenue to $730M–$750M and maintained margin expectations around the mid-55% range. The market will be watching whether Enterprise Data continues to scale as a larger slice of total revenue—and how quickly new AI platforms and data-center designs translate into power content growth. ^[33]

4) The bigger AI capex cycle (tailwind, but also a valuation risk)

The bull case is straightforward: AI buildouts require enormous power conversion efficiency and system-level optimization—exactly where MPS competes. The bear case is equally clear: if AI capex expectations cool, premium suppliers can re-rate quickly. Recent Reuters reporting on record data-center dealmaking shows the buildout remains intense, but the market is also increasingly sensitive to “AI infrastructure” valuation debates. ^[34]

Bottom line

As of Dec. 20, 2025, Monolithic Power Systems stock (MPWR) sits at the intersection of index-driven visibility (Nasdaq-100 addition), shareholder returns (dividend reaffirmation), and a fundamental growth engine tied to AI data-center power demand—backed by record recent results and a Q4 outlook that keeps revenue and margins on a steady trajectory. ^[35]

At the same time, MPWR’s premium profile means expectations are high: analyst targets skew upward, but the stock’s late-year swings are a reminder that execution must stay exceptional—especially as investors scrutinize the durability of AI-driven spending in 2026. ^[36]