Moody’s Corporation (MCO) Stock: What Changed Since November 21, 2025

New York – December 11, 2025

Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO), one of the world’s most influential credit‑rating and risk‑analytics firms, has had a busy few weeks on the markets and in the newsroom. Since November 21, 2025, investors in MCO stock have seen a mix of upbeat earnings momentum, strategic partnerships, rising institutional ownership – and a few caution flags around valuation and insider selling.

Below is a concise, news‑style rundown of the key developments, forecasts and analyses shaping Moody’s stock right now.

1. MCO share‑price performance since 21 November 2025

From the close on November 21 through December 11, 2025, Moody’s shares have edged higher but with noticeable day‑to‑day swings:

On November 21, MCO closed at $479.65, trading between $473.56 and $483.40 on volume of about 708,000 shares. ^[1]
By December 11, real‑time data shows the stock around $486–$487, with an intraday range of roughly $481 to $489 and volume just over 300,000 shares. ^[2]
Over this 3‑week window, the stock briefly climbed to $496.50 on December 5 before slipping back below $480 on December 10, marking three straight days of losses. ^[3]

Moody’s remains below its 52‑week high of $531.93, reached on February 14, 2025. At roughly $486–$487, the shares trade about 8–9% under that peak while still well above the 52‑week low near $379. ^[4]

Recent short‑term moves:

Dec 5 – MCO rose 1.43% to $496.50, outperforming peers S&P Global, MSCI and Equifax on a broadly positive day for U.S. equities. ^[5]
Dec 8 – the stock fell 1.89% to $487.13, lagging both the S&P 500 and direct competitors. ^[6]
Dec 10 – MCO dropped another 1.31% to $479.99, its third consecutive daily decline, on heavy volume (about 2.4 million shares versus a 50‑day average of ~826,000). ^[7]

Overall, since November 21, Moody’s stock has delivered modest net gains but with choppy trading, reflecting mixed sentiment around valuation, macro uncertainty and fresh news flow.

2. Fundamental backdrop: Q3 earnings and guidance still driving the story

Although Moody’s third‑quarter results landed in late October, they continue to set the tone for analyst models and media commentary through December.

Q3 2025: earnings beat and guidance hike

For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Moody’s:

Reported profit of $646 million, or $3.60 per share, up from $534 million ($2.93) a year earlier. ^[8]
Delivered ratings‑segment revenue of about $2.0 billion, up 11% year‑on‑year, supported by robust bond issuance and a rebound in capital‑markets and M&A activity. ^[9]
Posted overall corporate revenue of roughly $2.0 billion for Q3, also up 11% from the prior‑year period. ^[10]
Saw Moody’s Analytics revenue rise around 9%, with recurring revenue making up 96% of the segment and growing at an 11% clip. ^[11]

Crucially, management raised full‑year 2025 guidance, now expecting:

Adjusted EPS in a range of $14.50–$14.75, up from a prior $13.50–$14.00. ^[12]
Revenue growth in the high single digits, powered by both the ratings franchise and analytics platforms. ^[13]

Sell‑side estimates compiled by MarketBeat suggest analysts still expect full‑year EPS around $13.95, meaning management’s guidance implies upside versus consensus if execution stays on track. ^[14]

Why that matters for the stock

Several recent analyses – including research summaries from Zacks and Seeking Alpha – frame Moody’s as a high‑quality growth compounder whose earnings momentum has returned alongside revived bond issuance and strong demand for risk‑analytics and data. ^[15]

However, they also note:

Valuation is rich versus the broader financial sector, with TTM P/E ratios around high‑30s and forward P/E in the low‑30s depending on the earnings measure used. ^[16]
The business remains cyclical, tied to capital‑markets volumes and credit conditions even as analytics and subscription revenue soften that cyclicality.

3. Dividends and shareholder returns since November 21

Moody’s continues to pair growth with a steadily rising dividend:

The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.94 per share (annualized $3.76), implying a yield of roughly 0.7–0.8% at current prices. ^[17]
Ex‑dividend date:November 21, 2025 – exactly the date from which we are tracking news in this article. ^[18]
Payment date: scheduled for December 12, 2025. ^[19]
Moody’s has increased its dividend for 16 consecutive years, underscoring its consistent cash‑generation profile. ^[20]

While the yield is modest, Moody’s dividend growth plus buybacks (noted in past filings and calls) are central to the long‑term total‑return story highlighted in several fundamental analyses and Buffett‑stock round‑ups. ^[21]

4. Institutional flows and insider activity: the November–December reshuffle

Big money moves

A slew of 13F‑related headlines since November 21 reveal active repositioning by large institutions:

Empowered Funds LLC
- On November 21, a MarketBeat piece reported that Empowered Funds cut its Moody’s stake by 23.8%, selling 4,535 shares and ending the quarter with 14,534 shares valued at about $7.29 million. ^[22]
Prudential Financial Inc.
- On November 26, Prudential Financial was reported to have increased its MCO holding by 8.1%, adding 6,529 shares to reach 86,649 shares worth roughly $43.5 million. ^[23]
State Street Corporation
- On December 10, State Street disclosed it trimmed its stake by about 1.0%, selling 72,986 shares but still holding 7.14 million shares, roughly 3.99% of Moody’s outstanding stock, valued near $3.6 billion. ^[24]
- The same article highlights institutional ownership around 92%, with Vanguard owning about 15 million shares and Norges Bank having initiated a sizeable new position near $987 million. ^[25]
Axa S.A.
- On December 11, Axa S.A. reported it boosted its Moody’s position by 43.8%, now owning 43,286 shares valued at roughly $21.7 million. ^[26]

Taken together, the data suggest intense but balanced institutional activity – some large holders trimming exposure after strong gains, while others are adding or initiating positions as the earnings outlook improves.

Insider selling scrutiny

Insider trading has drawn fresh attention:

A November 24 article from Simply Wall St, syndicated on moomoo, noted that “many Moody’s insiders” sold significant stakes over the past year, with no insider purchases during that period. ^[27]
The piece highlights that CEO Robert Fauber’s largest disclosed sale in the last 12 months was roughly US$1.5 million at about US$494 per share, near current trading levels – a data point that makes some investors “a little cautious,” even if it isn’t alarming in isolation. ^[28]
Overall insider ownership is described as modest at around 0.09% of shares, worth roughly US$78 million, indicating that governance is dominated by institutional shareholders rather than management’s direct equity stake. ^[29]

More recently:

An SEC Form 4 reported that on December 3, CEO Rob Fauber exercised options for 575 shares at $167.50 and sold the same number at about $487.87 under a pre‑arranged Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan adopted in July 2025. ^[30]

Analysts differ on how much weight to give these sales, but the combination of heavy institutional ownership and limited insider buying is one of the main cautionary themes in recent commentary.

5. Strategic news since November 21: partnerships, platforms and awards

Beyond share‑price noise, Moody’s has been advancing its data and analytics footprint, which many analysts see as crucial to its long‑term multiple.

Entegra partnership: cash‑flow analytics meets “Trading as a Service”

On November 24, Entegra LLC announced it would integrate Moody’s cash‑flow analytics into its Trading as a Service (TaaS) platform. ^[31]

Key points from several reports:

The deal combines Moody’s structured‑finance analytics with Entegra’s technology‑driven market‑making framework, aiming to improve transparency, liquidity and execution quality in structured‑credit markets. ^[32]
By embedding Moody’s models directly into Entegra’s trading workflow, the integration is designed to provide richer, real‑time insights into bond valuations, supporting more precise pricing and risk management. ^[33]
A follow‑up analysis from Simply Wall St framed the partnership as part of a broader push by Moody’s into technology‑powered market infrastructure, which could enhance the company’s strategic relevance and fee‑based opportunities in fixed income. ^[34]

Pega collaboration: supercharging CLM and KYC

In early December, Moody’s also appeared in a Business Wire release announcing a strategic collaboration with Pegasystems (Pega):

Pega Client Lifecycle Management (CLM) customers can now access Moody’s entity‑verification data directly inside Pega’s CLM and KYC workflows. ^[35]
The firms claim the integration can cut onboarding time by up to ~30% and reduce data‑entry errors by as much as 40%, while giving banks access to curated data on over 600 million companies worldwide. ^[36]

For investors, these partnerships reinforce the narrative that Moody’s is not just a ratings agency but an increasingly mission‑critical data and software provider for global finance.

Still the benchmark: #1 in Chartis RiskTech100 2026

Moody’s competitive position also got a high‑profile external stamp of approval:

In late October, the company was ranked #1 overall in the Chartis RiskTech100® 2026 report for the fourth straight year, winning in 12 individual categories including overall strategy, market presence, CECL, credit portfolio management and financial‑crime data. ^[37]

While the award pre‑dates November 21, it continues to feature in December commentary as evidence of Moody’s brand strength and technology leadership, particularly on the analytics side.

6. Street forecasts, price targets and quantitative models (as of December 11, 2025)

Consensus analyst view: generally bullish, valuation‑aware

Recent data from several platforms give a fairly consistent picture:

MarketBeat
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” for MCO.
- Average 12‑month price target: about $543, based on multiple analysts, implying high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels around the mid‑$480s. ^[38]
- Target range: from roughly the low‑$470s at the low end to around $620 at the high end, reflecting differences in how analysts weigh valuation versus growth. ^[39]
Public.com
- Reports that 15 Wall Street analysts assign Moody’s an overall “Buy” rating, with a price target of $541.47. ^[40]
Recent target changes
- A MarketScreener summary notes that RBC Capital Markets recently raised its price target on Moody’s to $610 from $550 while maintaining an “Outperform” rating, following the Entegra and Pega partnerships and solid Q3 results. ^[41]
- Daiwa Securities earlier adjusted its target to $500 from $540 with a Neutral stance, reflecting some concern about valuation after the rally earlier in the year. ^[42]

Earnings expectations and valuation metrics

From recent research round‑ups:

Analysts expect full‑year 2025 EPS around $13.95, below management’s guidance range of $14.50–$14.75, leaving room for positive surprises if issuance remains strong. ^[43]
Ticker‑style data aggregators show:
- Market cap: roughly $86–89 billion.
- TTM P/E: around 39x.
- Price‑to‑sales: about 11–12x.
- Net margin: close to 30%.
- Operating margin: near 47%.
- Return on equity: about 55%, reflecting high leverage and asset‑light economics. ^[44]

Relative to the broader financials sector, these figures place Moody’s firmly in the “quality at a premium” bucket.

Algorithmic and AI‑driven forecasts

A wave of AI and quant sites has published rule‑based price projections for MCO since mid‑November:

Some platforms, such as CoinCodex and Intellectia, project modest gains into late 2025 – for example, average price targets around the high‑$480s to low‑$490s, only slightly above current levels – but larger potential appreciation into 2026–2027 based on trend‑following models. ^[45]
These models typically use a blend of historical volatility, momentum and macro correlations, and are not a substitute for fundamental analysis; they also vary widely in long‑term targets.

In short: human analysts generally expect high‑single‑digit to low‑teens upside over the next 12 months, while quantitative models range from cautious near‑term projections to more aggressive multi‑year scenarios.

7. Recent commentary: bull vs. bear arguments since November 21

Bull case themes in current research

Across Zacks notes, Seeking Alpha articles, Motley Fool features and institutional commentary, several bullish threads recur: ^[46]

Oligopoly and pricing power
- Moody’s, S&P Global and Fitch dominate the global ratings market, giving Moody’s significant pricing power and scale advantages.
Structural growth in analytics and data
- The Entegra and Pega partnerships are cited as evidence that Moody’s analytics platforms are deeply embedded in modern financial infrastructure, from credit trading to KYC processes. ^[47]
Revived issuance and private‑credit tailwinds
- Reuters and the company’s own earnings release stress that tight credit spreads, strong capital‑markets activity and private‑credit growth all boosted ratings revenue in Q3 – and could remain supportive into 2026 if rates drift lower. ^[48]
High returns and recurring revenue
- With recurring revenue making up the vast majority of analytics sales and ROE north of 50%, Moody’s is widely viewed as a capital‑efficient compounding machine. ^[49]
Dividends plus growth
- Dividend‑focused articles – like the November 22 Motley Fool piece naming Moody’s a “top dividend stock” – argue that steady payout growth layered on top of EPS expansion makes MCO attractive to long‑term investors even with a sub‑1% yield. ^[50]

Bear case and risk factors

More cautious analyses, including those from GuruFocus, Simply Wall St and some Seeking Alpha authors, flag several risks: ^[51]

Rich valuation vs. cyclical exposure
- A P/E near 40x trailing earnings is high for a company whose ratings revenue depends on credit cycles; if issuance slows or spreads widen, earnings could undershoot current expectations.
Regulatory and reputational risk
- As the Italy upgrade and Six Flags downgrade headlines remind investors, Moody’s influence comes with political, regulatory and litigation exposure, especially if future crises spark scrutiny of rating methodologies. ^[52]
Insider selling and limited insider ownership
- The recent Simply Wall St piece and SEC filings show no insider buying and several notable sales, including by the CEO, which some view as a soft yellow flag on management’s risk‑reward perception. ^[53]
Leverage and interest‑rate sensitivity
- Moody’s strong ROE is partly driven by high leverage (debt‑to‑equity ratios above 180% in some datasets), which magnifies both earnings and balance‑sheet risk if financial conditions tighten again. ^[54]

8. What to watch next for Moody’s stock

Looking beyond November 21’s starting point, several catalysts could shape MCO’s trajectory into early 2026:

Next earnings report
- Moody’s is expected to release Q4 2025 results around February 11, 2026, a key test of whether the company can meet or beat its upgraded guidance. ^[55]
Bond‑market conditions
- Continued strength in investment‑grade, leveraged‑finance and structured‑finance issuance, along with growing private‑credit markets, would underpin ratings revenue – while a sudden risk‑off shift could do the opposite. ^[56]
Adoption and monetization of new partnerships
- Investor commentary will be watching for tangible revenue or customer wins tied to the Entegra TaaS and Pega CLM/KYC collaborations. ^[57]
Regulation, competition and macro
- Any changes in regulatory regimes, particularly around ratings agencies or bank capital standards, along with central‑bank rate decisions, could meaningfully alter issuance volumes and demand for Moody’s solutions.

9. Bottom line

Since November 21, 2025, Moody’s Corporation stock has traded in a relatively tight but volatile band, modestly higher overall while lagging its February highs. The news flow has been net positive:

Strong Q3 numbers and upgraded guidance,
New data and software partnerships,
Top‑tier industry awards, and
Ongoing accumulation by large institutional investors,

all support the bullish long‑term narrative.

At the same time, the stock’s premium valuation, heavy institutional concentration and a year of net insider selling give the bear camp reasonable talking points.

For investors following MCO, the key question heading into 2026 is whether Moody’s can grow into its multiple – by sustaining double‑digit earnings growth and scaling high‑margin analytics – or whether macro or regulatory headwinds will force expectations, and the share price, to reset.

References

Moody’s Corporation (MCO) Stock: What Changed Since November 21, 2025 – Latest News, Forecasts and Outlook