NEW YORK, Dec. 19, 2025 — Morgan Stanley stock (NYSE: MS) traded higher Friday as investors weighed a cluster of catalysts: a Reuters report that the bank is emerging as a leading candidate to help run a potential SpaceX initial public offering, a drumbeat of upbeat industry outlooks for 2026 dealmaking, and a growing focus on Morgan Stanley’s upcoming fourth-quarter results in mid-January. [1]
Shares were last indicated around $176.87, up about 2.3% on the session, with trading ranging from roughly $173.07 to $177.54 intraday, according to market data.
The move comes after a soft patch earlier in the week. A market wrap on Thursday’s close pegged Morgan Stanley at $172.96, noting a multi-session slide and highlighting that the stock was still below its recent 52-week high of $181.98 set on Dec. 11. [2]
Below is a detailed look at the most important Morgan Stanley stock news, forecasts, and analyses circulating on Dec. 19, 2025, and what they could mean for MS shares heading into 2026.
What’s Driving Morgan Stanley Stock Today
1) Reuters: Morgan Stanley seen as a front-runner for a potential SpaceX IPO
The biggest headline lifting sentiment around Morgan Stanley today is a Reuters report saying the bank is emerging as a lead contender to manage SpaceX’s potentially massive IPO—a deal that, if it materializes, could become one of the marquee equity offerings of the next cycle. [3]
According to Reuters, the IPO lead-manager selection is being discussed in a competitive “bake-off” process among major banks, and no final decision has been made. Reuters also reported that SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen confirmed internal preparations for a possible 2026 IPO and described potential proceeds that could exceed $25 billion, while emphasizing that timing depends on market conditions. [4]
For Morgan Stanley stock watchers, the SpaceX angle matters less for near-term earnings (an IPO of that scale takes time and is never guaranteed) and more for what it signals: Morgan Stanley’s continued relevance in the highest-profile equity capital markets mandates—exactly the kind of pipeline investors want to see as Wall Street looks toward a potentially friendlier 2026 issuance environment.
2) Deal activity: Morgan Stanley hired for a potential sale process
In a separate Reuters item, sources said Cuisine Solutions—known for supplying Starbucks’ egg bites and other products—has hired Morgan Stanley and Rothschild to explore a potential sale that could value the company at more than $2 billion. [5]
While this kind of mandate won’t move the needle alone, it reinforces a broader theme: Morgan Stanley continues to show up on advisory work across industries, feeding a narrative that M&A and financing activity could remain constructive into next year.
3) Zacks/Nasdaq: Investment banking industry outlook turns more constructive for 2026
A Zacks industry outlook carried by Nasdaq on Dec. 19 argued that the investment bank group is positioned to benefit from clearer trade and monetary policy, a resilient economy, and lower financing costs—conditions that tend to support underwriting and M&A. [6]
The same analysis suggested trading revenues could remain solid if geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainty keep volatility elevated, even as technology and platform investments may pressure costs in the near term while supporting longer-run efficiency. [7]
This matters for Morgan Stanley stock because MS is a hybrid: it is both a classic Wall Street deal-and-trading franchise and a scaled wealth and asset manager. If 2026 brings a “better for longer” deal environment without a collapse in markets activity, that mix can work in Morgan Stanley’s favor.
Morgan Stanley Earnings: The Next Major Catalyst Is January 15
Morgan Stanley has already told investors when the next big checkpoint arrives.
Confirmed date: Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 15, 2026
In a company release, Morgan Stanley scheduled its Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 conference call for Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with results expected to be released around 7:30 a.m. ET the same day. [8]
That timing is important because Morgan Stanley stock can see sharp premarket moves when earnings hit—particularly if trading revenue, investment banking fees, or wealth management inflows surprise expectations.
What the Street is projecting for Q4 (so far)
A Dec. 19 earnings preview published by Barchart said analysts were looking for Q4 2025 EPS of about $2.28, which would represent modest year-over-year growth versus $2.22 in the year-ago quarter. [9]
Nasdaq’s earnings page for MS also showed a consensus EPS forecast of 2.28 for the quarter ending Dec. 2025 (with recent stability week-over-week). [10]
Barchart further cited an expectation for fiscal 2025 EPS of $9.76, up from $7.95 in fiscal 2024—an implied year-over-year jump that reflects how strongly the 2025 rebound in capital markets activity has been showing up in large-bank results. [11]
The setup: Why investors are watching trading + wealth management together
The context for these expectations traces back to Morgan Stanley’s strong Q3 results. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings release, Morgan Stanley reported:
- Net revenues of $18.2 billion
- EPS of $2.80
- ROTCE of 23.5%
- Wealth management net new assets of $81 billion
- Total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management reaching $8.9 trillion [12]
Those numbers are why the market is sensitive to any sign that Q4 momentum is either accelerating (a “capital markets flywheel” narrative) or cooling (deal timing slipping into 2026, volatility fading, or fee pressure showing up).
Morgan Stanley Stock Forecasts: Analyst Targets, Ratings, and Valuation
Forecasting a stock is never one-number simple—but several consensus snapshots circulating on Dec. 19 offer a clear picture of what analysts think “fair value” looks like right now.
Consensus view: “Moderate Buy,” but with targets clustering near the current price
MarketBeat’s aggregated data shows Morgan Stanley with a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy”, based on 18 analyst ratings. It lists a consensus 12‑month price target of $174.77, with a high target of $202 and a low target of $144. [13]
Barchart’s Dec. 19 preview also described sentiment as “cautiously optimistic,” noting a generally mixed distribution of buy/hold recommendations and an average target price near current levels. [14]
What this implies for Morgan Stanley stock: after a big run in 2025, a meaningful portion of Wall Street appears to be waiting for the next leg higher to be justified by either (1) stronger earnings revisions, or (2) a clearer 2026 deal cycle that expands fee pools again.
Valuation check: MS is not “cheap,” but it’s not extreme either
On valuation, FinanceCharts pegged Morgan Stanley’s P/E ratio at 17.74 as of Dec. 18, 2025, with a forward P/E of 16.05. [15]
That’s a level that can be defended if earnings hold up and buybacks continue—but it also means the stock may be more sensitive to disappointments than it would be at a discounted multiple.
Performance context: A strong 2025 run is already in the price
Barchart reported Morgan Stanley shares have climbed roughly 42.9% over the past 52 weeks. [16]
FinanceCharts’ total-return series put Morgan Stanley’s year-to-date total return at about 41.43% as of Dec. 18, 2025. [17]
That kind of performance helps explain why “good news” headlines (like SpaceX IPO talk) can spark rallies—but also why some analysts hesitate to chase the stock aggressively without another step-up in earnings expectations.
Dividends, Buybacks, and Capital: The Shareholder Return Story Still Matters
One of the most durable supports for Morgan Stanley stock in recent years has been capital return—especially as its wealth management scale has made earnings less purely dependent on trading peaks.
Dividend increased; multi-year buyback authorization renewed
In a July 1, 2025 filing/exhibit, Morgan Stanley said it planned to increase its quarterly common stock dividend to $1.00 per share (from $0.925), and that its board reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, with no set expiration date (beginning in the third quarter of 2025). [18]
For investors, the practical takeaway is straightforward: even if the stock’s multiple doesn’t expand, buybacks and dividends can provide a meaningful portion of shareholder returns—assuming regulatory capital requirements remain manageable.
Capital rules: Stress capital buffer revision was a notable tailwind in 2025
On the regulatory front, Reuters reported in late September that the Federal Reserve agreed to lower Morgan Stanley’s stress capital buffer requirement from 5.1% to 4.3% after reevaluating aspects of the bank’s stress test results. [19]
While this is not a day-to-day trading catalyst, it’s a structural positive for capital flexibility—supporting the idea that Morgan Stanley can keep returning capital while still investing in growth initiatives.
The Bigger 2026 Narrative: M&A, IPOs, and Market Activity vs. Regulation and Headline Risk
Why 2026 optimism keeps showing up in MS coverage
Morgan Stanley’s investment banking leadership has been publicly upbeat about pipelines. At Reuters NEXT earlier this month, Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley’s co-head of investment banking said the firm is seeing a strong pipeline for next year across mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs, describing healthy activity across multiple sectors. [20]
That ties neatly to today’s SpaceX chatter: if 2026 becomes a heavier IPO year, the banks positioned at the center of “must-own” listings could see a stronger fee environment.
Morgan Stanley’s own macro framing: resilient growth, moderating inflation, gradual easing
On Dec. 19, Morgan Stanley’s “Thoughts on the Market” podcast discussed a 2026 backdrop in which its research expects resilient global growth, inflation moderating, and central banks easing gradually—a mix that can be supportive for risk assets and credit markets if it avoids recession. [21]
For Morgan Stanley stock, that macro setup matters because it influences:
- Client risk appetite (driving trading volumes and wealth management activity)
- Underwriting windows (IPOs and debt issuance)
- M&A confidence (boardroom willingness to transact)
Risks that still hang over the story
Even as today’s headlines skew positive, investors in Morgan Stanley stock continue to balance upside against familiar risks:
- Market sensitivity: Trading and underwriting can cool quickly if volatility collapses or issuance windows shut.
- Cost discipline: Industry commentary this week highlighted that investments in AI, technology, and platforms can lift near-term expenses even if they improve long-term efficiency. [22]
- Regulatory/headline risk: Reuters reported in November that Dutch prosecutors imposed a €101 million fine on Morgan Stanley’s London and Amsterdam branches over dividend tax evasion tied to historical filings, underscoring that cross-border compliance issues can still generate unexpected costs and reputational headlines. [23]
What to Watch Next for Morgan Stanley Stock
If you’re following Morgan Stanley stock into year-end and early 2026, these are the practical signposts traders and long-term investors are likely tracking:
- Any follow-on reporting on SpaceX’s IPO planning and the final bank lineup (if it progresses) — because it would be a high-visibility signal for the broader equity issuance cycle. [24]
- Q4 earnings on Jan. 15 — especially commentary on investment banking pipelines, equities trading strength, and wealth management flows. [25]
- Analyst estimate revisions — after a strong 2025 run, MS may need upward EPS revisions to sustain momentum at current valuation levels. [26]
- Capital return cadence — dividends and buybacks remain a core part of the MS equity story, and any shifts can impact sentiment quickly. [27]
Morgan Stanley stock ended 2025 with a powerful rally behind it—and Friday’s move shows investors are still willing to bid up MS shares when the headline mix supports a “stronger capital markets in 2026” narrative. Whether that optimism holds will likely come down to what management says in mid-January, and whether the IPO and M&A calendar truly accelerates the way many strategists now expect. [28]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.morganstanley.com, 9. www.barchart.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.barchart.com, 12. www.morganstanley.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.barchart.com, 15. www.financecharts.com, 16. www.barchart.com, 17. www.financecharts.com, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.morganstanley.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.morganstanley.com, 26. www.barchart.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.morganstanley.com
