New York, Feb 2, 2026, 06:22 EST — Premarket
- On Monday, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.16%, while the 15-year rate stood at 5.62%.
- The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipped to roughly 4.22% in early trading, a crucial factor in mortgage rates.
- Friday’s U.S. jobs report will put rate direction to the test.
Mortgage rates started the week unchanged, staying high. Bankrate reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.16%, while the 15-year fixed hovered at 5.62%. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped roughly two basis points to 4.22% in early trade, a shift that could eventually influence mortgage rates. (Bankrate)
It matters as the market heads into the spring homebuying season, where affordability remains tight and inventory scarce in many regions. Even a slight uptick in rates can significantly impact monthly payments; a quarter-point increase adds about $50 a month on a $300,000, 30-year mortgage, excluding taxes and insurance.
Mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with Treasuries, but the bond market still sets the pace. Home loans are usually priced based on yields from mortgage-backed securities — bonds secured by bundles of home loans — and those yields generally follow Treasury trends. A basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The rate landscape varies across products. According to Bankrate, the average 30-year fixed jumbo rate sits at 6.38%, while the 30-year FHA average is lower at 5.91%. Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed refinance rate came in at 6.56%. For most products, the APR—which includes the interest rate plus some fees—was higher than the headline rate.
BlackRock’s iShares MBS ETF, tied to housing credit, last changed hands at $95.69, slipping roughly 0.1% from its previous close. Mortgage-backed securities frequently serve as a barometer for traders tracking if lenders are able to transfer shifts in Treasury yields or if spreads are expanding instead.
Opinions differ on how much borrowers can expect mortgage rates to ease. Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate, said rates are “unlikely to move meaningfully lower” without a drop in long-term inflation expectations. Jeff DerGurahian, loanDepot’s chief investment officer and head economist, predicts 30-year rates will hover “near 6.0% to 6.1%” unless there’s a sharp rise in unemployment. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, warned that rates might climb as the spring season approaches. (Bankrate)
The Federal Reserve continues to set the tone. At its late-January meeting, the central bank kept its benchmark rate range unchanged, underlining that future moves will depend on incoming data. (Federal Reserve)
The bond market can shift fast. If data comes in stronger than expected, yields might climb, forcing lenders to adjust their pricing. Volatility can also stretch the difference between Treasury yields and mortgage rates when investors seek higher premiums for holding mortgage-backed securities.
Friday’s Employment Situation report, set for 8:30 a.m. ET, is the next major catalyst. Traders are also eyeing January’s consumer inflation figures, due Feb. 11. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
