New York, March 13, 2026, 2:05 PM EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped in early afternoon Friday, holding close to 46,660 following Thursday’s sharp 739-point drop as traders trimmed exposure to U.S. equities. The S&P 500 shed 0.29%, with the Nasdaq down 0.68%.
This move stands out, with the Dow taking a sharper hit than the other indexes this week and now staring down its steepest monthly drop since December 2024. Oil hovering close to $100 has put stagflation worries—sluggish growth mixed with tenacious inflation—right back on the table, all as the next Federal Reserve meeting looms. “Headlines are coming at markets like water from a fire hose,” said Mitch Reznick, group head of fixed income at Federated Hermes. Over at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Ellen Zentner said in an email that persistent inflation just gives the Fed more reason to “stay on the sidelines.” Reuters
Friday’s batch of U.S. numbers had something for both bulls and bears. January consumer spending climbed 0.4%, beating the 0.3% consensus, and the Fed’s favored core PCE inflation measure came in at 3.1% year-over-year. On the downside, though, fourth-quarter GDP was revised sharply lower—now just 0.7%, down from 1.4%. “The numbers didn’t really help the ‘dovish case’ for easier policy,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management. Reuters
Interest-rate futures swung around after the report. Markets had been betting on an October rate cut before the data, but now see it in September. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, called inflation “sticky,” adding that the Fed will probably keep rates elevated for a while. Reuters
Banks and other cyclical names weighed on the Dow. Morgan Stanley stopped redemptions at a private-credit fund—joining BlackRock and Blue Owl, who’ve made similar moves in the brisk non-bank lending sector. Utilities managed a 1% gain, but tech skidded 1.1%, dragging on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Fresh signs that the oil spike is hitting households: the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 55.5 in early March, down from February’s 56.6. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that consumer moods, which had picked up earlier in the month, were “completely erased” after the military action in Iran. Gasoline prices spiked more than 21% to $3.63 a gallon. Reuters
Oil kept driving the action. Brent hovered close to $102, with U.S. crude trading near $96 late Friday—capping a sharp weekly climb that’s rattled equity markets. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop pointed out the U.S. waiver for stranded Russian oil eased “friction,” but stressed it hasn’t meant new supply hitting the market. Reuters
The Dow’s direction now depends on how the energy shock shakes out. According to Goldman Sachs, Brent may drop into the low $70s later this year if supply snags clear up quickly. But if the Strait of Hormuz shuts down for two months, they’re bumping their Q4 Brent forecast up to $93 from $71.
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