New York, March 3, 2026, 13:13 EST — Regular session underway.
- After a brief period of slipping, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked higher from Monday.
- Mortgage lenders slipped, and homebuilder ETFs followed them lower in the afternoon, pressured by rising Treasury yields.
- Oil prices, potential Fed rate cuts, and Friday’s U.S. jobs report are all on investors’ radar.
Mortgage rates edged up on Tuesday, with Mortgage News Daily putting the 30-year fixed at 6.15%, up from 6.12% the previous day—just a 3 basis point move. Rocket Companies slid 2.1% to $16.43. UWM Holdings dropped 2.2%, ending at $4.24. loanDepot lost 3.1% to close at $1.86. Homebuilder ETFs ITB and XHB also slipped, down roughly 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively.
Timing is key right now, with borrowing costs sticking close to highs last reached in 2022 — even minor rate shifts can nudge a buyer’s monthly payment up or down. For lenders, that makes the line between a solid refinance stream and a sluggish quarter awfully thin.
With markets adjusting their view on inflation risk, rates are once again tracking shifts in Treasury yields. Rohan Khanna, who leads euro rates strategy at Barclays, called it a return to the “2022 energy-shock template.” Reuters
U.S. stocks lost ground across the board, with investors eyeing the possibility that pricier oil might keep inflation sticky—posing fresh challenges for the Federal Reserve. “The main concern is that (oil prices) goes to over $100 a barrel and stays there,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to a one-week high, and traders dialed back their rate-cut bets. Reuters
Borrowing costs have eased from last year, but housing supply hasn’t budged. Realtor.com estimates the shortfall for 2025 at 4.03 million homes. “Without a sustained and targeted increase in housing supply, affordability challenges will continue to sideline many would-be buyers,” said chief economist Danielle Hale. Reuters
Some rate trackers aimed at consumers are still quoting numbers under 6%, though it hinges on individual assumptions and borrower details. On Tuesday, Zillow’s Home Loans page was showing a 30-year fixed rate at 5.99%.
Rocket shares had already been sliding ahead of Tuesday, dropping 7.7% Monday and trailing other mortgage names, according to MarketWatch.
The drop in mortgage rates could be short-lived. Should energy prices remain high and push yields up, lenders and homebuilders may run into more hesitation from buyers, particularly those entering the market for the first time.
Friday brings the February U.S. jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting on deck.
