Updated: Saturday, December 13, 2025 — The Federal Reserve’s final move of 2025 was a quarter-point rate cut. But if you’re waiting for mortgage rates to plunge—and for the housing market to suddenly “unlock”—Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the bond market are delivering the same message: it’s not that simple. [1]
Below is the latest mortgage-rate picture, what it means for monthly payments on a $600,000 home loan , and the key reasons the housing market may remain constrained heading into 2026.
The Fed cut rates again—here’s the big headline for homeowners
On December 10, 2025 , the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points , bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75% in a 9–3 vote , while signaling a likely pause as officials wait to clear inflation and jobs data (some of which has been delayed or distorted by the recent government shutdown). [2]
Just as important for mortgage shoppers: updated projections still point to only one additional cut in 2026 at the median, with meaningful disagreement inside the Fed about the right next step. [3]
Translation: the Fed is easing, but not promising a fast return to “cheap money.”
Mortgage rates today: what borrowers are seeing on Dec. 13, 2025
Mortgage rates aren’t set by the Fed. They move with the bond market—especially the 10-year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) —which is why rates can drift higher even right after a Fed cut. [4]
Here’s where major trackers put rates this week :
- Freddie Mac (weekly average, through Dec. 11):
- 30-year fixed: 6.22%
- 15-year fixed: 5.54% [5]
- Mortgage News Daily (daily index, Dec. 12):
- 30-year fixed: 6.32% [6]
- Zillow (posted rates as of Dec. 13):
- 30-year fixed: 6.125%
- 15-year fixed: 5.500% [7]
- Bankrate (daily average, Saturday Dec. 13):
- 30-year fixed: 6.29% [8]
Why the spread? Different methodologies (market averages vs. advertised offers), timing, and assumptions about points, fees, and borrower profiles can move “the rate” by a few tenths on any given day.
What’s the monthly payment on a $600,000 mortgage right now?
To make the rate environment concrete, here are principal-and-interest-only payment estimates for a $600,000 loan (taxes, insurance, HOA, and mortgage insurance are not included).
30-year fixed examples (principal & interest)
- At 6.29% (Bankrate’s average on Dec. 13): $3,709.93/month [9]
- At 6.22% (Freddie Mac weekly average): $3,682.60/month [10]
- At 6.125% (Zillow posted rate): $3,645.66/month [11]
15-year fixed examples (principal & interest)
- At 5.54% (Freddie Mac weekly average): $4,915.25/month [12]
- At 5.50% (Zillow posted rate): $4,902.50/month [13]
These payments are calculated using standard amortization. Your exact quote will depend heavily on credit score, down payment, points, and property type.
How much cheaper is that than early 2025?
Rates are lower than the early-2025 highs—and the difference is meaningful on a $600,000 balance.
Freddie Mac’s archive shows that on Jan. 16, 2025 , the weekly average was:
- 30-year fixed: 7.04%
- 15-year fixed: 6.27% [14]
What that means for payments on $600,000:
- 30-year at 7.04%:$4,007.95/month
- Compared with 6.29%: about $298/month lower today (≈ $3,576/year )
- 15-year at 6.27%:$5,151.08/month
- Compared with 5.54%: about $236/month lower today (≈ $2,832/year ) [15]
Over time, small rate differences can add up to six figures in interest on large loans—especially over 30 years.
Why a Fed rate cut doesn’t automatically lower mortgage rates
Mortgage News Daily’s blunt summary of the week: rates moved back up near the highest levels of the past three months, “ending another week where mortgage rates end higher despite a Fed rate cut.” [16]
Two core reasons:
- The Fed controls very short-term rates—mortgages are long-term.
The fed funds rate is essentially overnight borrowing. A 30-year mortgage is a decades-long bet on inflation, growth, and bond-market demand. Those can move in a different direction than the Fed. [17] - Markets “price in” expected Fed moves well in advance.
If investors already anticipated the cut, the mortgage market may have adjusted weeks earlier. When the decision finally arrives, what matters most is often the Fed’s tone about what comes next—not the cut itself. [18]
That’s why you can see a weird reality: the Fed cuts, but mortgage rates barely budget—or even tick higher.
Powell’s warning: housing is constrained by supply—and rate cuts can’t fix that
In his post-meeting comments, Powell emphasized that the housing market faces “significant challenges” and suggested a quarter-point cut is unlikely to change affordability quickly for many buyers. [19]
One of the biggest drags is the lock-in effect : millions of homeowners hold mortgages from the pandemic-era low-rate period, making it financially painful to sell and take out a new loan at today’s ~6% rates. That keeps resale inventory tight even when demand cools. [20]
And the supply problem shows up in behavior that’s become more common in 2025: sellers pulling listings rather than cutting prices. Realtor.com data summarized by Investopedia shows delistings were up about 45.5% year-over-year through October , with October delistings jumping sharply versus the prior year. [21]
So while lower rates can help at the margin, Powell’s point is structural: a multi-year housing shortage doesn’t disappear because borrowing costs move down 0.25%.
The Fed’s internal split is now part of the mortgage-rate story
For mortgage shoppers, the most market-moving developments this weekend aren’t only about the cut—they’re about how confident the Fed is that inflation is beaten.
Two Fed officials who dissented against the latest cut said they were concerned inflation remains too high, and pointed to the lack of fresh official data after the 43-day government shutdown delayed key reports. [22]
Why that matters for mortgages: if investors think the Fed is close to “done,” long-term yields may not fall much further—even if the Fed already cut. That dynamic is a key reason many forecasts cluster around mortgage rates staying in the low-6% range rather than dropping back to the 3% era. [23]
Zillow’s research team, for example, said Powell described the current policy range as near “neutral,” and argued mortgage rates are unlikely to fall below 6% in 2026 in their outlook. [24]
New on Dec. 13: Fed leadership speculation adds another layer of uncertainty
In a separate development reported early Dec. 13 , Reuters said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon signaled support for former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as a potential next Fed chair, amid reporting that President Donald Trump is considering Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett . [25]
Markets typically treat possible leadership shifts at the Fed as a source of uncertainty—especially if investors believe a change could alter the pace of rate cuts. That uncertainty can filter into bond yields and, indirectly, mortgage pricing.
Refinancing is back—because even “sticky” rates are still lower than last year’s peaks
Even without a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, demand for refinancing has improved as rates eased from earlier 2025 levels.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported the refinance share rose to 58.2% of total applications (week ending Dec. 5), up from 53.0% the prior week. [26]
That doesn’t mean refinancing makes sense for everyone. But it does show many households are acting on incremental improvements—especially borrowers who took loans closer to the 7% zone earlier in the year.
What to watch next week: the data that could move mortgage rates fast
Mortgage News Daily flagged several upcoming reports as major potential market movers—including Retail Sales, CPI inflation, and jobs data— precisely because they are harder for markets to predict than a well-telegraphed Fed decision. [27]
If inflation or jobs data surprises to the upside, rates can jump. If the data show clear cooling, rates can drift lower—though expectations about the Fed’s next steps will still matter.
Bottom line for buyers and homeowners
As of Dec. 13, 2025 , mortgage rates are broadly in the low-6% range for 30-year fixed loans, and that’s enough to change monthly payments materially on big balances like $600,000 —but not enough to “solve” affordability on its own. [28]
Powell’s core message is that housing faces a structural supply challenge, and the Fed’s quarter-point moves won’t quickly restore the market dynamics of the ultra-low-rate era. [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com, 5. www.freddiemac.com, 6. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com, 7. www.zillow.com, 8. www.bankrate.com, 9. www.bankrate.com, 10. www.freddiemac.com, 11. www.zillow.com, 12. www.freddiemac.com, 13. www.zillow.com, 14. www.freddiemac.com, 15. www.freddiemac.com, 16. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com, 17. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com, 18. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com, 19. www.nationalmortgagenews.com, 20. www.mpamag.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.zillow.com, 24. www.zillow.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.mba.org, 27. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com, 28. www.freddiemac.com, 29. www.nationalmortgagenews.com
