Mortgage Rates Today (Dec. 18, 2025): 30-Year Fixed Holds Near 6.2% After Cooler CPI — Plus 2026 Forecasts and What Borrowers Should Watch

December 18, 2025 — Mortgage rates are ending the week in a familiar place: stuck in a tight band despite major headlines on inflation and central-bank policy. The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.21% this week, according to Freddie Mac’s widely watched weekly survey, as lenders and borrowers weigh a softer inflation print against lingering uncertainty in the data and the path of interest rates in 2026. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at mortgage rates today, what’s moving the market on 12/18/2025, and how major housing forecasters see rates trending into 2026—including why some experts expect only a slow grind lower rather than a dramatic drop. ^[2]

Mortgage rates today: where the averages stand on December 18, 2025

Because “today’s mortgage rate” depends on the source (weekly surveys vs. daily lender polling vs. application data), the cleanest way to understand the market is to view several reputable benchmarks side by side.

1) Weekly benchmark (Freddie Mac): 30-year fixed at 6.21%

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) shows:

30-year fixed: 6.21% (down from 6.22% last week; 6.72% a year ago)
15-year fixed: 5.47% (down from 5.54% last week; 5.92% a year ago) ^[3]

Freddie Mac also notes rates have stayed within a narrow 10-basis-point range over the last two months, and says purchase applications are running about 10% above a year ago—an important signal that demand is starting to respond to lower year-over-year rates, even if affordability remains tight. ^[4]

2) Daily lender survey (Bankrate): 30-year fixed around 6.27%; refi about 6.52%

Bankrate’s daily mortgage-rate reporting for Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025 shows:

30-year fixed: 6.27%
15-year fixed: 5.62%
5/1 ARM: 5.61%
30-year jumbo: 6.40%
30-year fixed refinance: 6.52% ^[5]

Bankrate also publishes APR-based figures (which incorporate certain lender fees), putting the national average 30-year fixed APR at 6.34% today. ^[6]

3) Daily market tracker (Mortgage News Daily): 30-year fixed at 6.22%

Mortgage News Daily’s daily rate survey reads:

30-year fixed: 6.22%
15-year fixed: 5.74%
30-year jumbo: 6.40%
7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.80%
30-year FHA: 5.86%
30-year VA: 5.87% ^[7]

4) Application-rate snapshot (MBA): 30-year fixed at 6.38% in its survey data

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s posted “average mortgage application rates” show:

30-year fixed: 6.38
30-year jumbo: 6.44
15-year fixed: 5.72
FHA 203(b): 6.12
5-year ARM: 5.63 ^[8]

These MBA figures reflect rates seen in its Weekly Applications Survey pipeline, which often differs from consumer-facing “offer rates” depending on the mix of borrowers, points, and loan types in the application stream.

Why the numbers don’t match: the “mortgage rates today” confusion, explained

If you’re wondering why one site says 6.21% while another says 6.27% (or 6.38%), you’re not imagining things—these are different instruments measuring different slices of the market.

Bankrate explains that its weekly averages tend to run higher than Freddie Mac’s because Bankrate’s methodology can include origination points and certain costs, while Freddie Mac reports rates with fees/points treated differently. ^[9]

Bottom line: your personal mortgage rate will depend on credit score, down payment, property type, loan size, occupancy, debt-to-income ratio, and whether you pay discount points—so the most useful takeaway is the direction and range, not a single “universal” rate.

What’s moving mortgage rates on 12/18/2025: CPI surprise, bonds rally—then caution

Mortgage rates don’t move because of a single headline; they move because of the bond market—especially mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and U.S. Treasury yields.

Inflation cooled (at least on the headline numbers)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% over the last 12 months, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6% over the last year. Shelter inflation remained notable, with the shelter index up 3.0% year over year. ^[10]

Treasury yields fell after the data

Reuters reported that after the consumer price data, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.12%. Because mortgage rates tend to track longer-term yields (not the Fed funds rate directly), that move matters for mortgages—even if the pass-through is imperfect. ^[11]

MBS improved—but the market stayed cautious

Mortgage News Daily’s intraday MBS dashboard described mortgage-backed securities as “moderately stronger”, a move that can translate into slightly lower rate sheets depending on lender pricing and volatility. ^[12]

At the same time, Redfin’s market commentary cautioned that the CPI report was “noisy,” with BLS assumptions and missing earlier data distorting the picture—one reason rate markets may not react as aggressively as the “headline surprise” might suggest. ^[13]

The Fed cut rates—so why aren’t mortgages dramatically lower?

A major reason borrowers feel whiplash is that the Federal Reserve has been cutting—but mortgage rates have remained stubbornly elevated relative to those cuts.

The Fed’s December policy decision set the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% (effective Dec. 11, 2025). ^[14]

But Bankrate’s daily analysis underscores a key truth: the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to follow expectations for inflation, growth, and long-run interest rates—often reflected most directly through the 10-year Treasury. ^[15]

Bankrate’s Ted Rossman captured the frustration many buyers feel: even after significant Fed cuts since 2024, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has wound up “basically right back where it was” before those cuts—because the bond market moved too. ^[16]

Demand check: mortgage applications and refinancing activity

Rates don’t just affect “what you can afford.” They also show up immediately in mortgage demand.

Applications slipped week over week, but refinancing is still far above last year

MBA reported:

Mortgage applications decreased 3.8% week over week (week ending Dec. 12, 2025)
The Refinance Index fell 4% on the week, but was 86% higher than the same week one year ago
The Purchase Index decreased 3% week over week ^[17]

That mix is consistent with a market where rate-sensitive refinancers are more active than they were a year ago, while purchase demand remains constrained by affordability and inventory.

Affordability today: mortgage payments edged down, but the burden is still heavy

Even when rates go sideways, affordability can shift because of income growth, home prices, and borrower behavior.

MBA’s Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) reported that the national median payment applied for by purchase applicants decreased to $2,034 in November, down from $2,039 in October. MBA said affordability has improved for six straight months, helped by lower rates and earnings growth, and noted the national median payment was $99 lower than November 2024. ^[18]

This matters for “Mortgage Rates Today” readers because it’s the clearest reminder that the monthly payment—not the rate headline—is what squeezes budgets.

Mortgage rate forecast for 2026: where major outlooks are converging (and where they disagree)

The most useful forecast lens right now is not “Will rates crash?” but rather: How quickly can rates drift lower, and will they break below 6% in a durable way?

Here’s what notable forecasters and analysts are saying.

MBA: rates around 6.4% through 2026 (and slightly better affordability)

In its Dec. 18 release on affordability, MBA said it expects affordability to keep improving in 2026, forecasting national home prices to fall 0.3% and mortgage rates to remain around 6.4% throughout 2026. ^[19]

Fannie Mae: end-2026 around 5.9%

Fannie Mae’s ESR Group (in its September 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook) forecast mortgage rates to end 2025 at 6.4% and end 2026 at 5.9%. ^[20]

Realtor.com: average 6.3% in 2026

Realtor.com’s 2026 national housing forecast projects mortgage rates averaging 6.3% in 2026, alongside modest home price growth (+2.2%) and slightly higher existing-home sales. ^[21]

Redfin: average 6.3% in 2026, with only brief dips below 6%

Redfin’s 2026 predictions similarly put the 30-year fixed rate at an average of 6.3% for the year, arguing rates may slip below 6% at times—but likely not stay there for long because long-term rates are set by bond markets and inflation risk can reassert itself. ^[22]

Bankrate: a year-end-2025 view that still frames the market’s “slow grind” reality

Bankrate’s mortgage-rate forecast (published Dec. 1) argued that meaningful moves lower require clearer economic signals, and noted that both MBA and Fannie Mae expected rates to end 2025 around 6.3%. That general framing—slow, data-driven movement rather than a straight-line drop—fits what borrowers are seeing in today’s rangebound market. ^[23]

So… will mortgage rates go down from here?

Today’s setup points to a two-speed reality:

Short-term (days/weeks):
Rates can still move noticeably on inflation surprises and bond volatility. Today’s CPI report pushed yields down and MBS up, which can create room for lenders to improve pricing—but both the bond market and analysts have warned the data may be distorted, making rallies more cautious than usual. ^[24]
Medium-term (2026):
A growing share of mainstream forecasts cluster around low-6% averages in 2026, with some paths drifting toward high-5% by late 2026—but not a return to ultra-low pandemic-era rates. ^[25]

Locking a rate today: what borrowers can do in a rangebound market

Mortgage shoppers don’t get to control the CPI, the Fed, or bond markets—but you can control how exposed you are to sudden rate swings.

Here are practical, widely used approaches borrowers are leaning on in late 2025:

If you’re closing soon: Many borrowers choose to lock once they’re under contract to reduce “market risk,” especially in weeks loaded with inflation and labor data. Bankrate emphasizes that the economy and mortgage market remain unpredictable, which is exactly why locks exist. ^[26]
If you’re shopping but not under contract: Consider monitoring whether lenders improve pricing after bond-market rallies; MBS strength can eventually show up in rate sheets, though timing varies. ^[27]
Compare APR and fees, not just the rate: Bankrate’s mortgage-rate coverage highlights that points and costs can materially affect the “real” cost of the loan—especially when market rates are clustered tightly. ^[28]

(This is general information, not personal financial advice; loan decisions depend on your timeline, risk tolerance, and lender terms.)

The big picture on Dec. 18, 2025

Mortgage rates today are best described as stable-to-slightly-lower, with the 30-year fixed mortgage still sitting in the low-to-mid 6% range across most mainstream benchmarks. ^[29]

A cooler CPI reading gave bonds a lift and pulled Treasury yields down, which can create downward pressure on mortgage pricing—but analysts are also warning that noise in the data may keep markets cautious. ^[30]

Looking into 2026, the most consistent outlook across major forecasters is not a sharp collapse in mortgage rates, but a gradual drift toward the low-6% range, with some forecasts showing the potential for high-5% territory by late 2026—assuming inflation continues to cool and the bond market cooperates. ^[31]

How Do Interest Rates Affect Your Mortgage and Monthly Payment? Interest Rates Explained

Watch this video on YouTube.

References