Mortgage Rates Today, December 5, 2025: Low‑6% Sweet Spot and What It Means for 2026

Mortgage rates are closing out the first week of December 2025 in a rare “sweet spot” for today’s market: solidly in the low‑6% range, trending slightly lower, and backed by growing evidence that 2026 could be modestly more affordable—but not a return to 3% money.

If you’re wondering whether to buy now, refinance, or wait for lower rates, here’s what the latest data and forecasts are really saying.

Current Mortgage Rates Today (December 5, 2025)

Different surveys measure rates in different ways, but they all tell a similar story: U.S. mortgage rates have eased for a second week and are hovering in the low‑6% range for well‑qualified borrowers.

National averages from major surveys

Freddie Mac – Weekly benchmark

Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), based on thousands of loan applications nationwide, shows: ^[1]

30‑year fixed-rate mortgage: 6.19% (down from 6.23% last week, and 6.69% a year ago)
15‑year fixed-rate mortgage: 5.44% (down from 5.51% last week, 5.96% a year ago)

Freddie Mac notes that mortgage rates have now fallen for the second straight week and sit about half a percentage point lower than this time in 2024, creating a more favorable environment for both homebuyers and existing owners considering refinancing. ^[2]

Money.com – Daily consumer rate snapshot

Money.com’s daily survey, which tracks offers to borrowers with excellent credit (around 780+ FICO) and 20% down, reports average rates for December 4, 2025 of: ^[3]

30‑year fixed: 6.36%, down about 0.06 percentage points from the prior day
15‑year fixed: 5.75%
7/1 ARM: ~5.88%
10/1 ARM: ~6.04%

On the refinance side, Money’s averages show:

30‑year refi: 6.39%
15‑year refi: 5.74% ^[4]

Money attributes the latest dip to softer private payrolls data that pushed Treasury yields lower, with mortgage rates following the bond market’s lead. ^[5]

Mortgage News Daily – Real‑time rate index

Mortgage News Daily’s live index, which updates throughout the trading day, shows: ^[6]

30‑year fixed: about 6.24%, up just 0.01 percentage points on the day
Other products (15‑year, jumbo, FHA, VA, ARM) also clustered between the high‑5s and low‑6s

Their commentary this week: rates have seesawed slightly day‑to‑day but remain close to their recent lows, reflecting a market that’s reacting to each new economic data release but not breaking out in either direction.

Other daily “today’s rate” trackers

Forbes Advisor reports a national 30‑year fixed around 6.36%, nearly identical to Money.com’s reading and up slightly compared with roughly 6.23% a week ago, based on data from Mortgage Research Center. ^[7]
Fortune’s Current Mortgage Rates Report for December 5 highlights a similar pattern: 30‑year fixed mortgages in the low‑6% range, with 15‑year loans notably lower and adjustable‑rate products still starting with a “5.” ^[8]

Taken together, the major data sets point to this approximate national range for well‑qualified borrowers today:

30‑year fixed: ~6.2%–6.4%
15‑year fixed: ~5.4%–5.8%
Jumbo / FHA / VA / ARMs: generally high‑5s to low‑6s, depending on the product and points

Your actual rate can be higher or lower based on your credit score, debt‑to‑income ratio, down payment, property type, and whether you pay discount points.

What’s Driving Mortgage Rates Lower This Week?

1. Bond yields vs. Fed expectations

Mortgage rates are tied most closely to the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, not directly to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. When investors buy Treasurys, yields fall—and mortgage rates often follow.

Freddie Mac and National Mortgage News both note that mortgage rates fell even as the 10‑year yield recently bounced back to around 4.1%, suggesting mortgage lenders are pricing in expected Fed rate cuts and evolving economic data. ^[9]

National Mortgage News points out that the 30‑year fixed has dropped to 6.19% on Freddie’s survey even though the 10‑year Treasury has climbed from about 4.0% at Thanksgiving back up to roughly 4.1%. ^[10]

2. Softer economic data and Fed cut odds

Recent data has shown cooling labor conditions and less threatening inflation, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see:

Money.com highlights a weaker private payrolls report that nudged Treasury yields and mortgage rates lower. ^[11]
AP News reports that the Fed has already cut rates twice in recent months and that markets are widely expecting another cut at the December meeting, which is helping pull mortgage rates down to around 6.19% for the 30‑year and 5.44% for the 15‑year. ^[12]

3. Are these declines temporary?

Economists are cautious about calling this a lasting turning point:

First American’s chief economist Mark Fleming warns that “lingering inflation,” persistent federal deficits, and heavy Treasury issuance keep the “term premium” elevated, which puts a near‑term floor under mortgage rates. His team sees the 30‑year fixed ending 2026 near 6.2%, not plunging back to pandemic lows. ^[13]
Bond strategists quoted across several outlets stress that rates could bounce if inflation surprises to the upside or if growth data re‑accelerates.

In short: today’s dip is real, but fragile. Rates are lower than they were earlier in 2025, yet still high by pre‑2022 standards and vulnerable to the next inflation or jobs surprise.

Mortgage Rate Forecast for 2026 and Beyond

If you’re trying to decide whether to “buy now or wait,” the forecasts from major housing and mortgage institutions matter. Here’s how the big players currently see 2026.

Fannie Mae: Sub‑6% by late 2026

Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group now projects: ^[14]

End of 2025: 30‑year fixed around 6.4%
End of 2026: 30‑year fixed around 5.9%

Fannie Mae’s updated forecast—summarized both in its own releases and in industry coverage—marks a meaningful shift from earlier, more pessimistic expectations. The agency also expects home sales to climb from about 4.7 million in 2025 to over 5.1 million in 2026, reflecting a slowly healing market. ^[15]

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): “Low‑6s” for a while

MBA’s latest projections, echoed in both official releases and analyst commentary, suggest: ^[16]

30‑year fixed rate hovering around 6.4% throughout 2026
Total single‑family originations rising about 8% in 2026 to roughly $2.2 trillion, with purchase loans up ~7.7% and refis up ~9.2%

In a candid roundtable with reporters, MBA economists emphasized that:

Rates are likely to stay in the 6%–6.5% range for the next couple of years
There may be “little dips” that briefly pull rates lower, prompting bursts of refinance activity
Many borrowers and buyers are “acclimating” to 6‑something mortgage rates and no longer waiting for 3–4% loans to return ^[17]

First American / MBA Newslink: A “progress, not breakout” year

In a widely cited MBA Newslink column, First American deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi frames 2026 as a year of “progress without a breakout.” Her base case: ^[18]

Mortgage rates hold in the low‑6% range, with possible movement “toward six”
Affordability improves mainly because home‑price growth slows and incomes continue to rise, not because financing suddenly gets cheap
Pent‑up demand and “life happens” events (marriage, divorce, kids, job changes) drive more transactions, even if rates don’t fall dramatically

Realtor.com & Bright MLS: Slightly easier, not cheap

Realtor.com’s 2026 national housing forecast calls for: ^[19]

Average 30‑year mortgage rate around 6.3%
Home prices rising a modest 2.2%
Active inventory up nearly 9%, giving buyers more options
Monthly payment on a median‑priced home dipping ~1.3% versus 2025

Realtor.com’s economists describe 2026 as a “turning point” rather than a full rebound: conditions get better, but affordability challenges don’t disappear overnight.

Bright MLS’s 2026 forecast (covering a large swath of the Mid‑Atlantic and beyond) is similar: ^[20]

Mortgage rates around 6.25% in Q4 2025, easing to about 6.15% by late 2026
Existing‑home sales up ~9%, from roughly 4.14 million to 4.51 million
National median home price rising less than 1% in 2026, to about $417,600
Inventory continues to rise, though slowly, as more owners loosen their grip on ultra‑low pandemic‑era rates

Consensus view

Across Fannie Mae, MBA, Realtor.com, First American, and Bright MLS, the common theme is clear:

“Low‑6s” are the new normal in the near term
A high‑5% 30‑year fixed is possible by late 2026, but not guaranteed
Most of the affordability improvement is expected to come from slower price growth and rising incomes, not dramatic rate cuts

If you’re waiting for 3% mortgages to come back, these forecasters are essentially saying: don’t hold your breath.

Housing Affordability: Will Things Really Get Easier?

Even with rates easing, the affordability equation is still tough—especially for first‑time buyers. But the direction of travel is finally more encouraging.

U.S. affordability: smaller payments, still big numbers

Bankrate’s latest analysis puts the average 30‑year fixed rate at 6.28%, down from 6.32% the prior week. At that rate, their math suggests the monthly payment on a median‑priced home uses about 24% of the typical family’s income—high, but not as crushing as in late 2023 and early 2024. ^[21]

Realtor.com, Bright MLS, and First American all underline the same story: as long as income growth keeps outpacing home‑price gains, affordability should inch better in 2026, even if mortgage rates only move slightly lower. ^[22]

UK: Lower rates, but record prices

In the UK, Halifax data show: ^[23]

Average house price hit a record £299,892 in November
Yet affordability is the best since 2015, thanks to a stronger income‑to‑price relationship and easing borrowing costs
The average two‑year fixed mortgage rate is about 4.85%, and mortgage costs as a share of income are at a three‑year low

Halifax and market analysts expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates, which could push mortgage rates down further and keep prices growing only gradually into 2026.

China: Falling prices, mortgage cuts, and risk

China is dealing with a very different dynamic. A new Reuters poll finds: ^[24]

Home prices are expected to fall 3.7% in 2025 and another 2.8% in 2026, with stabilization not expected until 2027
Policymakers have cut mortgage costs for some buyers and pledged to stabilize the market, but structural headwinds—aging demographics, high inventories, and weak confidence—remain intense
Analysts warn of rising risk of mortgage delinquencies and negative equity if broader economic policies fail to boost confidence

Globally, the contrast is stark: U.S. and UK markets are wrestling with high prices and slowly easing rates, while China battles falling prices despite cheaper mortgages.

What This Means If You’re Buying, Refinancing, or Waiting

If you’re buying a home

You’re buying into a “higher for longer” rate world. Most experts expect rates to stay in the 6% range over the next couple of years, with only gradual declines. ^[25]
But you may face less competition and more choice. Inventory is rising, prices are growing more slowly, and some analysts expect modest discounts or flat prices in many markets, especially in the South and West. ^[26]
Affordability is improving “by inches,” not miles. Slower price growth plus rising incomes can make the math work even if rates only fall from, say, 6.4% to 6.1%.

Practical moves:

Work on credit score and debt‑to‑income—the easiest way to get your personal rate below the national average.
Get multiple quotes and compare both rate and fees (origination, points, mortgage insurance).
Consider buying now with the plan to refinance if/when rates dip below your current rate by 0.5–1 percentage point and the savings outweigh closing costs—a rule of thumb echoed by Money.com and other consumer finance sites. ^[27]

If you’re thinking about refinancing

Refinancing makes the most sense if:

Your existing rate is significantly above the current market (for example, 7–8% loans taken out in 2024), and
You plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup closing costs via monthly savings

With the 30‑year refi average around the mid‑6% range right now, borrowers who locked in much higher rates earlier in the cycle may finally see meaningful monthly savings. ^[28]

If you’re sitting on a 3–4% pandemic‑era mortgage, most analysts agree refinancing into today’s 6‑something rates doesn’t pencil out. Many such owners remain “rate‑locked,” which is one of the reasons inventory has been slow to normalize. ^[29]

If you’re tempted to wait for much lower rates

The key risk of waiting is betting against nearly every major forecast.

Fannie Mae: 5.9% by end of 2026 (not 3–4%) ^[30]
MBA & First American: low‑6% base case, with modest dips rather than a crash in rates ^[31]
Realtor.com & Bright MLS: 6.1–6.3% averages in 2026, with modest home‑price gains and better inventory rather than a fire‑sale market ^[32]

Could rates dip below 5.5% sooner? It’s possible but would likely require much weaker economic conditions—the kind of recession that often brings job losses, which is not ideal for getting approved for a mortgage or feeling comfortable taking one on.

For many would‑be buyers, the more realistic strategy is:

Buy when your personal finances and local market line up—not just when rates move a few tenths of a percent.

Quick FAQ: Mortgage Rates Today & 2026 Outlook

Are mortgage rates going down right now?
Yes, modestly. Major surveys show 30‑year fixed rates drifting from the mid‑6s down to roughly 6.2–6.4% in early December, with Freddie Mac’s weekly average at 6.19% and daily indexes like Money.com and Mortgage News Daily showing similar levels. ^[33]

Will mortgage rates fall below 6% in 2026?
Several forecasters—including Fannie Mae—expect the 30‑year fixed to end 2026 around 5.9%, while others (MBA, Realtor.com, Bright MLS) see averages hovering in the low‑6% range with occasional dips. The consensus: sub‑6% is possible but not dramatically lower. ^[34]

Are we ever going back to 3% mortgage rates?
Forecasters aren’t ruling it out over a very long horizon, but no major 2025–2027 forecast assumes anything close to pandemic‑era rates. Higher inflation, persistent government borrowing, and a repriced bond market make those ultra‑low rates unlikely in the near term. ^[35]

Is housing finally getting more affordable?
Slowly. Affordability is improving because rates are a bit lower, home‑price growth has cooled, and incomes have risen, but monthly payments are still high relative to pre‑2020 norms. Analysts expect gradual progress in 2026, not an overnight fix. ^[36]