New York, Feb 16, 2026, 12:35 EST — Market closed
- Bankrate put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.13% on Feb. 16
- U.S. stock markets are closed for Presidents Day, reopening Tuesday
- Retail sales and Fed minutes later this week are the next big markers for rates
U.S. mortgage rates edged lower on Monday, with Bankrate’s national survey putting the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.13%, down 10 basis points (0.10 percentage point) from a week earlier; the 15-year fixed was 5.51% and the average 30-year refinance rate was 6.50%. Mortgage Bankers Association President Bob Broeksmit said applications were “essentially flat” last week, with borrowers leaning more on FHA loans — a government-backed option — and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which reset after an initial period. U.S. stock markets were closed for the Presidents Day holiday, with trading set to resume on Tuesday. (Bankrate)
The move matters because mortgage costs have become the swing factor for would-be buyers after two years of tight affordability. Rates near 6% can change monthly payments enough to pull buyers off the fence — or push them back into renting — just as the market gears up for the spring selling season.
Bond yields are doing much of the work. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage pricing, last eased to about 4.05% on Friday, Trading Economics data showed. Yields fall when investors buy bonds and bid up prices, a dynamic that can filter into mortgage rate “rate sheets” lenders send out each morning. (Trading Economics)
Dan Cooper, capital markets and servicing EVP at Cornerstone Home Lending, said mortgage rates are likely to stay “largely unchanged throughout February,” citing inflation that remains too high for comfort and a labor market that is softening but not breaking. A separate daily market snapshot put the 10-year yield around 4.052% as the holiday thinned activity. (The Mortgage Reports)
Housing-linked stock prices went into the holiday with gains that tracked the softer-rate tone. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF rose 1.9% on Friday, while D.R. Horton gained 1.9%, Lennar rose 1.2% and PulteGroup added 2.7%. Mortgage lender Rocket Companies climbed 5.3% and UWM Holdings gained 4.1%; mortgage REIT Annaly rose 0.5% while AGNC Investment slipped 0.2%. The iShares MBS ETF — which holds mortgage-backed securities, bonds built from pools of home loans — rose 0.4%.
When trading resumes on Tuesday, investors and borrowers will be staring at a crowded U.S. calendar. Retail sales for January are due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the Fed’s January meeting minutes on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET; pending home sales follow Thursday, with a GDP reading on Friday. A Scotiabank calendar flagged that recent U.S. government data schedules have been affected in the wake of a shutdown, adding a small layer of timing risk around releases. (Scotiabank)
The risk for borrowers is simple: stronger data can lift yields fast. A hotter retail sales print or a firm GDP number can push bond investors to demand higher yields, and mortgage lenders often reprice within hours when the bond market moves against them.
There’s also the Fed angle. Minutes can read more hawkish than the market expects, even when the central bank is still “on hold,” and that can pull forward bets on higher-for-longer policy rates — usually a headwind for mortgages.
For households, the practical takeaway is that “today’s” rate is often a moving target. Mortgage pricing responds less to the Fed’s benchmark rate than to daily trading in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and those markets tend to be jumpier when liquidity is thin, including around holidays.
Markets reopen Tuesday. The sharper test comes Wednesday afternoon, when the Fed minutes drop and traders decide whether last week’s softer yield tone can hold — or whether mortgage rates snap back higher.
