NEW YORK, July 21, 2026, 11:05 EDT — U.S. cash equities began trading.
- At 10:48 a.m. EDT, shares were down 10.7% at $558.50.
- Index generated 105% of total consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth.
- The midpoint for expense guidance increased by $45 million, while the free-cash-flow midpoint was raised by $15 million.
Shares of MSCI Inc. NYSE:MSCI fell 10.7% on Tuesday after the company increased its full-year expense forecast. A revenue beat and robust index fees did not prevent the decline.
The underlying concern involved earnings concentration. According to company data, Index contributed $67.6 million in additional adjusted EBITDA.
Total adjusted EBITDA increased by just $64.1 million. As a result, Index accounted for 105% of overall group growth, while all other divisions together posted a combined loss of $3.5 million.
The decline was sharper than among rivals. S&P Global Inc. NYSE:SPGI slipped 2.4%, and FactSet Research Systems Inc. NYSE:FDS retreated 1.0%. The difference highlights worries specific to the company’s margins.
| Q2 2026 segment | Revenue change | Adjusted EBITDA change | Adjusted EBITDA margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | up 17.5% | rose 20.5% | 77.8% |
| Analytics | increased 6.6% | fell 5.0% | 46.5% |
| Sustainability and Climate | gained 3.4% | climbed 12.3% | 38.7% |
| Private Assets | advanced 4.9% | dropped 14.1% | 22.9% |
The numbers are in relation to the 2025 second quarter.
Index continued to drive growth. Revenue increased by 17.5% to $511.0 million, with a margin climbing to 77.8%.
Asset-based fees rose by 26.6% to $233.1 million. According to MSCI, assets connected to these fees exceeded the flat market assumption applied in the previous quarter.
Analytics indicated a contrast: revenue was up 6.6%, while adjusted EBITDA expenses rose by 19.2%.
Adjusted EBITDA declined by 5.0%, while the margin decreased by 560 basis points. EBITDA for Private Assets was down 14.1%, with the margin slipping 510 basis points.
Overall results remained robust. Revenue increased by 12.2% to $867.0 million, while adjusted EPS climbed 18.5% to $4.94.
Reuters reported that revenue surpassed forecasts, with adjusted EPS in line with market expectations.
MSCI increased its 2026 operating expense forecast to a range of $1.535 billion to $1.575 billion, up from the earlier estimate of $1.490 billion to $1.530 billion.
This increased the midpoint by $45 million. Free-cash-flow guidance at the midpoint also climbed by $15 million, reaching $1.515 billion.
Management attributed increased costs to acquisitions, incentive compensation, and new investment. The outlook is based on the $120 million First Street acquisition closing during this quarter.
CEO Henry Fernandez said the company is gaining momentum as it approaches the latter part of 2026. He mentioned accelerated AI-driven product development as well.
The decline also eliminated MSCI’s previous buyback premium. By Monday, the company had repurchased $147.2 million worth of stock at an average price of $557.66 per share.
Tuesday’s price of $558.50 was only 0.2% higher than that mark. The company still had approximately $1.6 billion left available in its buyback program.
Key risks include sluggish markets, slower increases in subscriptions and ongoing expenses. MSCI reported debt totaling $6.4 billion, representing 3.1 times its adjusted EBITDA.
Investors are looking for evidence that margins outside the index can hold steady. On Tuesday, index resilience by itself did not suffice.
