Sydney, January 22, 2026, 17:20 AEDT — The market is now closed.
- Shares of NAB jumped about 3% on Thursday, buoyed by a broader bounce in bank stocks amid the market’s rally.
- A sudden jump in job numbers caught investors off guard, prompting a swift reassessment of the near-term rate outlook right before key inflation data.
- Key events on the horizon include next week’s CPI data, the RBA’s early February decision, and NAB’s trading update set for later that month.
National Australia Bank shares ended Thursday higher, buoyed by a rally in Australian banks following a better-than-expected jobs report and easing tensions in global markets. 1
The move is significant now as rate expectations shift rapidly. Banks tend to track interest rate trends, influencing how investors assess lenders’ earnings on loans versus their costs for deposits and funding.
Australia added 65,200 jobs in December, official data showed, sending the unemployment rate down to 4.1%. The surprise surge has economists scrambling and increased speculation about a potential rate hike in February. 2
NAB jumped 3.04% to A$42.45, while Commonwealth Bank rose 2.07% and Westpac gained 2.02%, driving a broad rally in the financial sector, according to an IG market wrap. 1
The S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.8% to close at 8,849, lifted by robust labour data that refocused attention on inflation. Economists warned against reading too much into the jobs numbers alone. “Adding over 65,000 jobs last month points to a labour market far stronger than expected,” noted KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne. Betashares chief economist David Bassanese called next week’s inflation report a critical “make or break” moment for the near-term rate outlook. 3
Wall Street jumped higher, fueled by overnight momentum after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a framework deal on Greenland could be in the works. He also said new tariffs on European allies were off the table, easing immediate fears of an escalating trade war. 4
NAB has sounded the alarm on a surge in investment scams that use fake identities of well-known Australians, including nabtrade market analyst Tom Piotrowski. The bank highlighted social media platforms and websites as the main culprits behind the rising number of incidents. “About 70% of investment scam losses start with a social media platform or website,” said NAB executive Chris Sheehan. 5
That said, chasing the bank bounce isn’t without risk. Should inflation jump unexpectedly, rate pricing could surge again — which would dampen credit growth and ramp up stress among borrowers.
Westpac’s senior economist Justin Smirk cut the bank’s December-quarter CPI forecast to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter for headline inflation. The trimmed mean inflation, their main measure that excludes volatile prices, is now projected at 0.7%. 6
Australia’s statistics bureau is set to publish December-quarter CPI figures on Wednesday, January 28 at 11:30am AEDT. Market watchers consider this report the main obstacle before the February decision. 7
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its next monetary policy decision on February 3 at 2:30pm AEDT. 8
NAB is gearing up to release its first-quarter trading update on February 18. 9
Friday’s session is shaping up with traders watching to see if bank stocks can hold onto their post-data gains as rate expectations level off, or if the focus swings back to inflation worries ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report.
