Sydney, January 22, 2026, 17:20 AEDT — The market has closed.
- NAB shares climbed roughly 3% on Thursday, riding a wave of recovery in bank stocks alongside the wider market rally.
- A surprise surge in job numbers forced investors to rethink the near-term rate outlook just ahead of crucial inflation figures.
- Upcoming key events are CPI data next week, the RBA’s decision in early February, and NAB’s trading update slated for later that month.
Shares of National Australia Bank closed Thursday up, lifted by a rebound in Australian bank stocks after a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report and calmer global risk sentiment. (IG)
The move matters now because rate expectations are shifting quickly. Banks usually follow the path of interest rates, which affects how investors gauge what lenders can earn on loans compared to what they pay for deposits and funding.
Official figures revealed Australia created 65,200 jobs in December, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1%. The numbers caught economists off guard and raised bets on a rate hike as soon as February. (Reuters)
NAB climbed 3.04% to A$42.45, with Commonwealth Bank adding 2.07% and Westpac up 2.02%, sparking a broad rebound across the financial sector, according to an IG market wrap. (IG)
The S&P/ASX 200 ended 0.8% higher at 8,849 points, driven by stronger labour figures that shifted focus back to inflation. Economists cautioned against viewing the jobs data in isolation. “Adding over 65,000 jobs last month points to a labour market far stronger than expected,” said KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne. Betashares chief economist David Bassanese described next week’s inflation report as a crucial “make or break” test for the short-term rate outlook. (ABC)
Overnight momentum gave a boost as Wall Street closed higher following U.S. President Donald Trump’s hint at a framework deal on Greenland. He also announced that new tariffs on European allies were off the table, easing short-term concerns over the trade war. (Reuters)
NAB flagged a rise in investment scams involving impersonations of prominent Australians, including nabtrade market analyst Tom Piotrowski. The bank pointed to social media and websites as the main sources behind a growing number of reports. “About 70% of investment scam losses start with a social media platform or website,” said NAB executive Chris Sheehan. (Nab)
That said, chasing the bank bounce carries clear risks. If inflation surprises on the upside, rate pricing could spike once more — and higher rates would weigh on credit growth while pushing borrower stress higher.
Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk lowered the bank’s December-quarter CPI forecast to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter for headline inflation, with trimmed mean inflation—its key gauge excluding volatile price swings—now seen at 0.7%. (Westpaciq)
Australia’s statistics bureau will release December-quarter CPI data on Wednesday, January 28 at 11:30am AEDT. Traders see this report as the key hurdle ahead of the February decision. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to release its next monetary policy decision statement on February 3 at 2:30pm AEDT. (Reserve Bank of Australia)
NAB’s next key event is its first-quarter trading update, set for February 18. (Nab)
As Friday’s session unfolds, traders will be focused on whether bank stocks can maintain their post-data rally as rate expectations stabilize—or if the market shifts back to inflation concerns ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release.
