Sydney, Jan 24, 2026, 17:23 AEDT — Market closed
- NAB ended at A$42.35, slipping 0.2%
- Mortgage-rate shifts and strong jobs data have intensified attention on the upcoming inflation report and the RBA’s February decision
Shares of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) slipped 0.2% on Friday, closing at A$42.35 amid ongoing investor uncertainty over mortgage pricing and fluctuating interest-rate expectations.
The ASX is closed for the weekend and will also sit out Monday’s session due to the Australia Day public holiday. That means the next cash-market trading won’t resume until Tuesday, tightening the schedule for local data releases into a shorter window.
Why it matters now: for NAB and other major banks, the immediate focus is the trajectory of interest rates. Rising rates tend to boost earnings by expanding net interest margins — the difference between income from loans and the costs of deposits and wholesale funding — but they can also weaken loan demand and increase credit risk.
NAB raised fixed mortgage rates by up to 0.40 percentage points, or 40 basis points (each basis point equals 0.01 percentage point), Canstar’s rate tracking shows. “Fixed rates keep creeping up, with NAB now the second major bank to increase them in 2026,” said Sally Tindall, Canstar’s data insights director. Canstar
Rate pressure didn’t just appear overnight. Australia’s unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.1% in December, while employment surged by 65,200. That move pushed market bets on a February rate hike to roughly 57%, Reuters reported.
Bank stocks have been volatile amid shifting forecasts. NAB climbed 3.04% Thursday, lifting the whole financial sector. Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ also posted gains, according to an afternoon update from IG.
The broader market wrapped up the week with little movement. The ASX 200 inched higher by 0.13% to close at 8,860 on Friday. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar hovered near 68.47 U.S. cents late in the session, according to an ABC markets blog.
For NAB, the shift in fixed rates signals changes in funding costs and the intensity of competition among banks for home loans. Raising fixed rates can guard profit margins, yet it risks losing customers as borrowers compare options.
Deposits are another stress area. When banks raise rates to hold onto deposits, the boost from higher loan yields can vanish quicker than equity investors anticipate.
The trade isn’t one-sided. A weaker inflation report might ease pressure on rate-hike expectations, dragging bank shares lower. On the other hand, a stronger reading could trigger a swift repricing in housing and the wider economy, even as lending growth cools.
The schedule is packed: the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to release its policy decision statement on Feb. 3 at 2:30 p.m. AEDT. NAB’s next big event will be its first-quarter trading update, due on Feb. 18.
Investors will see Australia’s consumer price index for December 2025 released on Jan. 28 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT — a key figure expected to influence market sentiment heading into February.
