Updated: 14 December 2025 (Sunday) — Australian markets are closed today. The latest pricing referenced below reflects NAB’s last close on Friday, 12 December 2025. Investing
National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) ended the week on a firmer note, with investors weighing a busy run of late‑week catalysts: NAB’s 2025 AGM messaging, a fully franked final dividend payment, and a more hawkish‑leaning Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tone that’s reshaping rate expectations into early 2026. NAB News
Below is what moved NAB shares this week, what management said, where consensus forecasts sit, and what to watch in the week ahead.
NAB share price this week: where the stock closed and what it means
As of 14 Dec 2025, NAB is indicated at A$42.13, with the prior close shown as A$41.38 (reflecting Friday’s move). The day range cited is A$41.60–A$42.285, and the 52‑week range is A$31.13–A$45.25. Investing
From a weekly perspective, NAB moved higher across the week: Intelligent Investor’s pricing table shows a close of A$40.60 on Monday, 8 Dec, versus A$42.13 by Friday, a gain of roughly 3.8% across the trading week. Intelligent Investor
That week’s rise matters because NAB is still trading below its 52‑week high (A$45.25), but it is also sitting well above the lows seen earlier in the year — and, crucially for forecasting, it’s hovering around levels where analyst target prices are more mixed (more on that below). Investing
The biggest NAB stock headlines from the last few days
1) NAB 2025 AGM: strategy progress, productivity warning, and chair succession planning
At the 12 December 2025 AGM, NAB Chair Philip Chronican and CEO Andrew Irvine struck a tone that was optimistic about near‑term resilience but increasingly focused on structural constraints — notably productivity and housing supply — as the big swing factors for Australia’s longer‑run growth backdrop. NAB News
Two AGM items were particularly relevant for investors:
- Chair succession planning began: Chronican said he was standing for re‑election for a fourth term and stated that, if re‑elected, it would be his last term, with a chair succession planning process initiated and overseen by director Kathryn Fagg via the Nomination & Governance Committee. NAB News
- Capital and shareholder returns framing: The chair highlighted a capital surplus to the group’s CET1 target (above 11.25%) as at 30 September 2025, dividends of 170 cents per share for the year, and a continued bias toward reducing share count, citing A$8 billion in on‑market buybacks since August 2021 and ongoing neutralisation of the DRP. NAB News
From a stock‑market lens, chair succession planning is usually not a day‑to‑day earnings driver — but it does matter for governance continuity, strategic tempo, and how investors handicap leadership stability in the years ahead.
2) Final dividend paid (85c, fully franked)
NAB’s shareholder centre confirms the 2025 final dividend of 85 cents per ordinary share, 100% franked at the 30% company tax rate, and payable on 12 December 2025. NAB
Dividend timing often influences short‑term trading dynamics (income investors rebalancing after payment; price behaviour around the ex‑dividend period), and it remains a central part of the “Big Four banks” investment case.
3) CEO’s broader economic outlook message (10 Dec)
NAB published a 10 December 2025 message from CEO Andrew Irvine to customers describing easing household pressure, steadier spending, and business confidence holding up despite global uncertainty — and encouraging customers under financial stress to seek support early. NAB News
While this isn’t an earnings update, it aligns with NAB’s AGM narrative: a “resilient but not complacent” view of the domestic economy heading into 2026.
4) Other corporate updates in the same week
NAB’s announcements feed also flagged several smaller but current corporate items, including a leadership appointment in wealth management and product‑partnership style updates through JBWere. NAB News
These are generally not primary share‑price drivers in isolation, but they round out the “what changed this week” picture for NAB’s operating segments and strategic priorities.
Macro backdrop: RBA on hold at 3.60%, but inflation risk talk turns more hawkish
For Australian bank stocks, the most powerful force field is still the RBA, because it sets the gravitational pull on net interest margins (NIM), mortgage demand, arrears risk, and overall credit growth.
On 9 December 2025, the RBA held the cash rate at 3.60% and noted that while inflation has fallen substantially from its 2022 peak, it has picked up more recently, and the board will be monitoring whether that pickup proves persistent. Reserve Bank of Australia
Reuters reported the RBA framed risks to inflation as tilted to the upside and referenced stronger‑than‑expected domestic demand as a potential contributor to inflation pressure — a stance that has kept markets attentive to the possibility of renewed tightening in 2026. Reuters
Major‑bank economics commentary echoed that “slightly more hawkish” interpretation, with Westpac IQ noting the board’s focus on upside inflation risks and reporting the Governor confirmed a rate cut was “not on the table” at that meeting. Westpac IQ
This matters for NAB because:
- Higher-for-longer rates can support bank revenue lines (especially margins), but
- Persistent inflation and potential hikes raise the risk of slower credit demand and higher impairments — a trade‑off that becomes more important as growth and household buffers evolve.
NAB fundamentals investors are still pricing: profit, margin, costs, and credit quality
The market’s current argument about NAB is not “Is it a solid bank?” — it’s “How much of the good news is already in the price?”
From NAB’s FY2025 results coverage, Reuters reported:
- Cash profit of A$7.09 billion for the year ended 30 September 2025 (slightly below market consensus cited by Reuters)
- Net interest margin at 1.74% (up 3 basis points, per Reuters)
- Credit impairment charge up 14.4%, primarily tied to higher individually assessed charges within business lending
- Operating expenses up 4.6% to A$9.85 billion, with technology and personnel costs a driver and a payroll remediation component noted
- Final dividend 85 cents and full‑year dividend A$1.70 Reuters
Those specifics help frame why NAB’s weekly news flow landed the way it did. AGM messaging about productivity and housing sits on top of a business reality: margins and competition are tight, costs are a live issue, and impairments (especially in business lending) are the variable investors watch for any sign of deterioration.
NAB stock forecast: where analyst targets and consensus sit right now
One of the cleanest “expectations gauges” is simply the spread between the current share price and consensus targets.
Investing.com’s analyst snapshot shows:
- Average 12‑month price target: ~A$37.99
- High: ~A$46.31
- Low: ~A$29.00
- A recommendation mix (as displayed there) that leans cautious overall Investing
With NAB around A$42.13, that average target implies downside on a 12‑month view — even though the high target suggests some analysts still see a path to meaningful upside if execution and the macro line up. Investing
A practical way to interpret this (without pretending the future is knowable)
Think of consensus as a rough map of “what must go right”:
- If rates stay elevated and credit quality remains contained, bank earnings can be sturdier than feared — supporting the stock, particularly for income‑focused holders. Reserve Bank of Australia
- If the RBA turns more hawkish and growth holds up, margins may get support — but the market will then price the risk that impairments rise and lending growth slows. Reuters
- If competition erodes margin and costs don’t slow, then a “re‑rating down toward targets” becomes easier to justify. Reuters
Dividend outlook: what the current payout implies for yield
NAB’s chair said dividends for the year were 170 cents per share, and NAB confirms the final dividend was 85c, fully franked. NAB News
Using the last price around A$42.13, that A$1.70 annual dividend implies an approximate 4.0% cash yield (before franking credits). NAB News
Because the dividend is fully franked at a 30% company tax rate, the grossed‑up yield (for investors who can fully use franking credits) can be meaningfully higher — but the real benefit depends on each investor’s tax position. NAB
Week ahead (15–19 Dec 2025): what could move NAB shares next?
There are no scheduled NAB earnings releases in the coming week. NAB’s own financial calendar shows the next major scheduled company catalyst as the First Quarter Trading Update on 18 February 2026. NAB
So for the week ahead, NAB trading is more likely to be driven by macro signals, rate expectations, and sector rotation than by company-specific headlines.
Key items on the radar:
1) Australia data flow and sentiment indicators
Westpac’s weekly outlook highlights upcoming items including Westpac‑MI consumer sentiment and the leading index, plus speeches from RBA’s Jones and Brischetto. Westpac IQ
The ABS release calendar also flags several releases through the week, including Labour Force, Australia, Detailed (reference period November 2025) on Thursday 18 December. Australian Bureau of Statistics
For bank stocks, anything that shifts the market’s view of the labour market and household resilience can quickly feed into expectations for arrears, credit growth, and the RBA’s next move.
2) RBA “hawkish hold” aftershocks
The RBA has already signalled discomfort with the recent inflation pickup and held rates at 3.60% in its final decision for 2025. Reserve Bank of Australia
That means the debate into year‑end is less “when are cuts coming?” and more “does inflation force another hike in 2026?” — a debate that can swing bank valuations even without any change in NAB’s day‑to‑day operations. Reuters
3) Credit cycle watch: jobs, inflation, and the consumer
Reuters reported Australia’s November jobs fell by 23,100, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3% as participation eased, and market pricing reflected a non‑trivial chance of tightening by early/mid‑2026. Reuters
Meanwhile, ABS reported CPI inflation of 3.8% year‑on‑year to October 2025, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.3% — the type of data mix that keeps the RBA cautious. Australian Bureau of Statistics
For NAB, the “sweet spot” is clear but hard to engineer: resilient employment and spending (supporting credit quality) without inflation re‑accelerating enough to force aggressive tightening.
Bottom line: the NAB share price setup heading into late December
As of 14 December 2025, the NAB stock narrative is basically three stories stacked into one trench coat:
- Income + capital return story: fully franked dividends and a buyback/DRP-neutralisation bias support the shareholder-return profile. NAB
- Macro story: the RBA’s inflation language has turned more hawkish, and that can be good for margins but risky for the credit cycle. Reserve Bank of Australia
- Valuation story: NAB’s current price is above some consensus target snapshots, implying investors are already paying for a decent outcome — which raises sensitivity to any disappointment on costs, competition, or impairments. Investing
In the week ahead, absent company-specific releases, rate expectations and macro data are likely to be the biggest levers on NAB’s share price — especially any signals that shift the market’s view of whether 2026 brings a prolonged pause, cuts, or renewed hikes.
