Sydney, Feb 1, 2026, 16:54 AEDT — Market closed
- On Friday, NAB wrapped up trading 0.7% higher, closing at A$43.37.
- Markets are eyeing Tuesday’s RBA decision statement, keenly watching for clues on the rate outlook.
- NAB’s upcoming major date is its Q1 trading update, scheduled for Feb. 18.
National Australia Bank shares (ASX: NAB) ended Friday at A$43.37, rising 0.7% for the day, ahead of a new test when Australian markets open Monday.
The immediate focus is the cash rate — the Reserve Bank’s benchmark for overnight lending — since it directly influences the rates banks charge on loans and offer on deposits. When the rate rises, it can boost net interest margin, the difference between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits. But it also puts pressure on borrowers.
This is crucial now as the RBA meeting coincides with the start of the local reporting season, when investors usually get their first clear look at margins, costs, and credit quality for the year. In banks, those three factors drive stock prices more than most headlines.
Sentiment headed into the weekend was cautious. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.7% on Friday, weighed down by falls in miners and gold stocks. Financials, however, bounced back 0.5%, with the “big four” banks gaining between 0.5% and 0.8%, Reuters reported. “The earnings season will be central in determining whether recent gains are justified at the stock level,” said Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X ETFs. Reuters also noted markets are pricing in over a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike in the 3.6% cash rate. Indo Premier
The Reserve Bank of Australia board convenes Monday and Tuesday, with its decision statement set for 2:30 p.m. AEDT on Feb. 3. A press conference follows an hour later at 3:30 p.m., according to its calendar.
NAB has scheduled its first-quarter trading update for Feb. 18. Investors will be watching for signs on loan growth, deposit pricing, and any margin pressure from competitors.
Offshore, jitters are rattling Australian risk assets. Global stocks edged down Friday, while the dollar climbed after Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his choice for Federal Reserve chair. Inflation figures drew attention too, Reuters reported. “Maybe some of the angst is just the fact that you’ve got uncertainty,” said Terry Sandven from U.S. Bank Asset Management. Reuters
NAB is expected to move alongside Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac Banking Corporation, and ANZ Group Holdings Limited as traders gear up for the RBA’s decision and the initial batch of earnings. Interest rate forecasts usually shift the entire sector before investors start picking individual winners and losers.
The set-up cuts both ways. Should the RBA stay on hold and strike a dovish tone, or flag worries about household stress, bank shares could reverse sharply after their recent gains—especially if traders begin pricing in weaker credit demand.
As the ASX kicks off on Monday, traders will watch global markets and bond yields closely. The key event this week is Tuesday’s RBA statement. After that, focus shifts to NAB’s trading update on Feb. 18 for fresh data.
