NAB slides nearly 3% as rate-hike chatter hits bank stocks ahead of Australia inflation print

6 January 2026

Sydney, January 6, 2026, 17:38 (AEDT) — Market closed.

National Australia Bank ended down 3.0% at A$41.28, underperforming the broader market. StockAnalysis
Australian rate expectations have swung toward “higher for longer”, with CPI due Wednesday and the RBA meeting on Feb. 3 in focus. ABC
NAB’s next scheduled catalyst is its first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18. NAB

National Australia Bank Ltd shares fell 3.0% on Tuesday, closing at A$41.28 and snapping a quiet start to the new year for Australia’s lenders. StockAnalysis

The drop mattered because bank stocks are back to trading like “rates stocks” again: investors are recalibrating for the risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps policy tight, or even hikes, if inflation proves sticky. ABC

That repricing is immediate. Australia’s benchmark share index slipped 0.92% on the day, with financials among the drags, as traders positioned ahead of the monthly CPI release due Wednesday. Trading Economics

The macro backdrop has turned less friendly for borrowers and the banks’ loan growth narrative. “The shift in cash rate expectations is being felt across the market,” Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said, after a run of fixed-rate increases late last year. ABC

For NAB, higher rates can support earnings through lending margins, but they also raise the stakes on bad debts if household budgets crack and business conditions soften. Investors have been quick to fade the sector when the debate swings from cuts to hikes, especially in low-liquidity January trade. ABC

Technically, Tuesday’s close dragged NAB further below its recent highs. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of roughly A$31.13 to A$45.25, putting the latest close closer to the lower half of that band after the selloff. Investing

A clear near-term line traders will watch is whether the stock can reclaim the prior session’s levels around A$42.50, after it opened Tuesday near A$42.52 before sliding into the close. StockAnalysis

But the risk case is simple: if Wednesday’s CPI surprises on the high side, markets may price a tighter RBA path, pushing bank valuations lower even if the longer-run earnings story is intact. If inflation cools faster, the reverse can happen quickly — but it would also revive competition for mortgages and deposits.

Shan Ahmed Khan Latest posts

As a journalist focused on finance and the stock market, he delivers fast, reliable, and easy-to-understand coverage of market news.

View all

VGLT crosses above 200-day moving average
January 7, 2026, 12:34 PM EST. Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF VGLT traded Monday, crossing above its 200-day moving average of $65.82 and lifting to as high as $66.96. The fund was about 1.6% higher on the session. The move tracks the chart pattern versus the 200-day moving average line, a common gauge for trend context. In the past year, VGLT has traded within a 52-week range of $57.04 to $81.03, with the latest print around $66.20. The data highlights a potential bullish signal if the ETF sustains above the moving average. For investors seeking signals, other ETFs recently crossing above their own 200-day moving averages are being monitored.