- Nasdaq futures jumped ~0.4% early Monday (Sept 29) as U.S. stock indexes clawed back from last week’s pullback [1]. The Nasdaq Composite had closed Friday at 22,484.07 (up 0.44% on the day), though it still finished roughly 0.7% lower for the week [2].
- Big Nasdaq names grabbed headlines: Electronic Arts (EA) surged on reports of a ~$50 billion buyout offer (its shares jumped ~15%) [3], and Intel was said to be courting Apple for a strategic investment [4]. (Intel stock rallied after Nvidia’s big $5B deal, lifting the chip sector [5] [6].)
- Geo- and macro news in focus: President Trump was set to meet Congress on funding to avert a U.S. government shutdown. Markets shrugged off the shutdown risk – strategists at BofA noted it would only nudge growth down ~0.1% per week [7] – while Fed rate-cut bets remain lofty (around 90% odds of a cut in October [8] [9]). Investors are bracing for the key September jobs report (potentially delayed by a shutdown) and for continued Fed easing.
- Global cues: Asian stocks climbed on Monday (MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.6%), bolstered by a tech rebound in China [10] [11]. Commodities saw gold hit an all-time high (~$3,800/oz) and oil dip on OPEC+ signals [12]. The dollar eased on month-end flows and shutdown fears [13] [14].
- Tech-sector swings: High-flying AI/tech stocks saw some profit-taking late last week. Nasdaq research noted Oracle fell ~5.6% on Sept. 26 as AI valuation worries mounted [15]. Even so, mega-cap tech still underpins the market: shares of Nvidia, Microsoft and others have lifted the Nasdaq back to multimonth highs.
- Expert take & outlook: Strategists warn volatility ahead. “Traders hate uncertainty,” noted one strategist, pointing to risks around the labor market and shutdown [16]. On the upside, seasonals are favorable: historically the Nasdaq averages ~+6% in Q4 [17], and with Fed easing likely, many bulls see further gains by year-end (BMO recently lifted its S&P 500 target to 7,000 [18], implying continued upside for tech).
Market Snapshot: Rebound After Late-Week Dip
Last week ended with Nasdaq near recent highs but under pressure from rotating profit-taking. On Thursday (Sept. 26), the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% (to 22,384.70) [19] amid “growing concerns over the record-high valuations of AI and tech stocks” [20]. Firms like Oracle (down ~5.6%) and Tesla (~–4.4%) led the declines as investors questioned whether the AI investment spree was priced in [21]. By Friday, buyers returned: major indexes all finished modestly higher, leaving Nasdaq up ~0.4% on the day [22].
Looking ahead to Monday, U.S. stock index futures were firmly higher. Reuters reported S&P futures +0.3% and Nasdaq futures +0.4% in Asia, signaling a continuation of Friday’s bounce [23]. Asia-Pacific markets broadly rose (China’s CSI 300 +0.7%, South Korea +1.5%) [24], helped by easing Treasury yields (10-year U.S. yields around 4.16%) [25] and a weaker dollar. A Bloomberg wrap noted Wall Street’s move higher on sustained Fed-cut expectations and on neutral inflation readings [26].
Tech Stocks & Corporate News Drive Nasdaq
Electronic Arts (EA) – The gaming giant became the Nasdaq’s biggest mover. Reuters reported EA is in advanced talks to go private at roughly a $50 billion valuation [27]. A private equity-led investor group (including Silver Lake, Saudi’s PIF and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners) could unveil a deal imminently [28]. Sources say this would be the largest leveraged buyout ever. EA shares jumped ~15% on Friday, reflecting the takeover buzz [29]. D.A. Davidson analyst Wyatt Swanson commented that “EA does make sense as an acquisition target – the cash flows are fairly consistent and EA’s annualized titles make for predictable profitability” [30].
Intel Corp. (INTC) – The struggling chipmaker also caught Wall Street’s eye. Bloomberg News reported Intel is approaching Apple for an investment [31], hoping to tap the iPhone-maker’s cash hoard. (Intel last week gained 4% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion stake in it [32].) Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan has been actively seeking partners to boost Intel’s turnaround. Reuters notes that Apple’s interest in Intel could help diversify Apple’s chip supply, especially amid geopolitical concerns over Taiwan [33].
Other tech themes – In semiconductor land, chips tied to AI have seen wild swings. Nvidia’s AI-driven rally cooled slightly on late-week profit-taking, but the stock and its peers remain near high levels. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and AMD had underwhelming recent results in data-center sales [34], underscoring that even AI frontrunners are sensitive to inventory and competition pressures. (SMCI CEO Charles Liang assured investors that “better chip availability… will help us grow better” [35].) In the broader market, chipmaker Micron Technology recently fell on disappointing forecasts [36], reflecting memory-market softness. Such news has reminded investors that the chip upcycle faces short-term headwinds, even as long-term AI demand stays strong.
Macro Spotlight: Fed, Shutdown & Data in Focus
The spotlight remains on Washington and the Fed. Capitol Hill was scrambling to avert a shutdown before Oct. 1. Asian markets and futures were little shaken by the drama – strategists at Bank of America pointed out shutdowns have historically had minimal market impact (roughly –0.1% GDP per week) [37]. If Congress fails, a shutdown could delay the release of key data (notably September payrolls due Friday), but markets have “seen this movie before,” according to Bloomberg’s Mark Cranfield [38]. In any case, Fed easing expectations held firm: BofA’s note found markets still price an ~89–90% chance of a Fed rate cut at the Oct. 28–29 meeting [39] [40].
Fed officials themselves have fuelled the cautious optimism. Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin admitted to “very low confidence” in inflation forecasts [41], and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warned that emerging signs of labor-market fragility mean it’s time to “act decisively” [42]. Those comments echo Fed Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole message: the jobs market will guide policy. Markets will pore over upcoming labor data (weekly jobless claims are improving; ADP/JOLTS prints are due) to gauge whether the Fed can deliver further cuts without overheating or undercutting growth.
Economists and strategists are split on market posture. Janney Montgomery’s Mark Luschini notes Wall Street has “priced in” Fed cuts and is vulnerable to disappointment. “Nobody is expecting a blockbuster [jobs] number,” he said – but a surprisingly weak payrolls report could validate recession fears [43]. By contrast, Nomura’s Gareth Nicholson cautioned traders are “hungry for clarity” but “hate uncertainty,” especially regarding the labor data [44]. His advice: be prepared for volatility until the data clarifies the Fed path.
Market Outlook: Bullish Seasonals and Records?
Despite near-term jitters, many strategists remain optimistic on U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 just notched its best 3Q in years [45], and by historical patterns Q4 tends to be strong. Reuters reports that on average the Nasdaq rallies +6% in the October-December quarter [46]. With a Fed easing cycle presumably underway, that scenario appears intact for now.
Analysts also cite dealmaking as a catalyst. Broad themes of consolidation in tech have support from Wall Street: CFRA’s Sam Stovall recently noted that “support for growth and stretched valuations” comes from the prospect of lower rates and megadeals [47]. Indeed, M&A is heating up – we saw reports that Verisure is preparing an IPO at up to a $16 billion valuation, and JP Morgan predicting sector-specific boom periods [48] [49]. BMO even raised its end-2025 S&P target to 7,000 [50] (implying further gains for tech-heavy indices).
Bottom line: Nasdaq stocks are on a tear, fueled by AI zeal and big-deal speculation. That has pushed the index to multi-week highs in recent sessions. Key near-term watch points: whether politics (shutdown or tariffs) or soft data could knock confidence, and how quickly Fed rhetoric shifts. But for now, the bulls seem to be in the driver’s seat – in the words of one strategist, traders are positioning for more Fed easing, despite all the uncertainty [51] [52].
Sources: U.S. market data and analysis (Nasdaq, Reuters) [53] [54]; Reuters and Bloomberg news (including tech M&A reports) [55] [56] [57]; strategists’ commentary from Reuters and Bloomberg [58] [59].
References
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