The Nasdaq Composite spent Wednesday drifting around the flat line, as weakness in mega‑cap technology stocks offset big gains in select AI, biotech and retail names. With the index still sitting just a few percent below its record high, investors are weighing weak jobs data against growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its December meeting. [1]
Key Takeaways
- Nasdaq goes sideways near record territory. The Nasdaq Composite hovered around 23,400 in late morning trading, essentially unchanged from Tuesday’s close of 23,413.67, leaving the tech‑heavy benchmark only a few percent below its all‑time high. [2]
- Tech leaders drag, AI winners pop. Shares of Microsoft and Nvidia slipped, while AI‑linked chipmaker Marvell Technology jumped after strong earnings and a major acquisition, and American Eagle Outfitters surged on robust holiday demand. [3]
- Jobs shock bolsters Fed‑cut hopes. The latest ADP report showed private‑sector job losses, pushing bond yields lower and reinforcing expectations of an interest‑rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting. [4]
- Crypto comeback adds to risk appetite. Bitcoin has rebounded above the $90,000 mark after a bruising sell‑off, supporting crypto‑related stocks listed on the Nasdaq. [5]
- Analysts stay cautiously bullish. Technical strategists see ongoing support for the Nasdaq 100 and view pullbacks as buying opportunities, while valuation analysts say U.S. equities overall trade only modestly below fair value. [6]
Where the Nasdaq Stands on December 3, 2025
By late morning in New York on Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite was hovering just above 23,400, effectively flat on the day. Nasdaq’s own index feed showed the benchmark around 23,411, down roughly 0.01%, while other real‑time feeds put it slightly positive in the same range. [7]
That comes after a strong Tuesday session in which the Nasdaq rose about 0.6%, closing at 23,413.67 and logging its sixth gain in seven trading days as tech stocks and a jump in Boeing powered Wall Street higher. [8]
Even after November’s wobble, the index remains within roughly 3% of its 52‑week high near 24,020, underscoring how resilient tech and growth stocks have been in 2025. [9]
How the Trading Day Unfolded
A positive tone before the opening bell
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher ahead of Wednesday’s open, with Nasdaq 100 futures edging up around 0.1–0.2% as traders looked to extend Tuesday’s rebound. [10]
Nasdaq.com’s pre‑market indicator showed the Nasdaq 100 up more than 70 points to around 25,626, supported by heavy trading in popular names such as Tesla, Nio, Macy’s and several AI‑linked small caps. [11]
The early optimism reflected:
- Carry‑over momentum from Tuesday’s rally in tech and industrials. [12]
- Expectations that weakening economic data might finally push the Fed toward a long‑anticipated rate cut. [13]
- Stabilization in Bitcoin, which had rebounded after a sharp sell‑off earlier in the week. [14]
Morning: indexes split, Nasdaq lags
Once regular trading began, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average stayed close to record territory, but the Nasdaq slipped modestly into the red. An Associated Press market wrap noted the S&P 500 down around 0.1% and the Dow up about 0.2% by mid‑morning, while the Nasdaq Composite traded roughly 0.3% lower. [15]
Wall Street Journal live coverage described a market “struggling for direction,” with major benchmarks fluctuating between small gains and losses and the Nasdaq lagging behind its peers. [16]
The pattern was classic rotation:
- Cyclical and industrial names, including some Dow components, moved higher. [17]
- Big‑cap tech cooled after a strong run. [18]
By late morning, index data suggested the Nasdaq had largely crawled back toward unchanged, mirroring the broader market’s drift. [19]
The Macro Backdrop: Weak Jobs, Lower Yields, Fed in Focus
ADP jobs report rattles, then reassures
The main macro story of the day is the ADP private‑sector jobs report, which showed U.S. employers in the private sector cut more jobs than they added in November—an unexpected sign of softness in the labor market. [20]
That surprise had a two‑sided impact:
- Negative for growth expectations: A weaker labor market raises questions about the durability of the expansion.
- Positive for risk assets like the Nasdaq: Softer jobs data strengthens the case for rate cuts, which are typically supportive for growth and tech stocks.
Bond markets quickly adjusted. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield slipped to just above 4.0%, with Investopedia citing yields near 4.06%, down from recent highs. [21]
Fed December meeting looms large
Traders are now heavily pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting. Reuters reported that market‑based odds of a cut have climbed close to 90%, up sharply from about two‑thirds a month earlier. [22]
That expectation was a big driver of:
- Tuesday’s 0.59% rally in the Nasdaq. [23]
- Ongoing bullish sentiment toward AI, semiconductors and long‑duration growth stocks, even on a day when many of those names are taking a breather. [24]
PCE inflation report: the next big catalyst
Looking ahead, analysts are laser‑focused on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Because other data releases were delayed by recent federal disruptions, the PCE print has taken on outsized importance for markets. [25]
A benign reading could:
- Cement expectations of a rate cut this month.
- Potentially push the Nasdaq to fresh all‑time highs.
A hot reading, by contrast, could revive concerns that the Fed is easing too soon, risking a sharper pullback in richly valued growth stocks.
Inside the Nasdaq: Winners, Losers and Stand‑Out Stories
AI and chips: Marvell shines, megacaps cool
Across the Nasdaq, semiconductors and AI‑linked names remain central to the narrative:
- Marvell Technology jumped around 6% after delivering stronger‑than‑expected earnings and announcing a roughly $3.25 billion deal to acquire Celestial AI, expanding its footprint in AI data‑center infrastructure. [26]
- The move follows months of investor enthusiasm for companies supplying chips and hardware to power generative AI workloads.
However, the largest tech names were a drag on the index:
- Microsoft traded about 2.5–2.6% lower,
- Nvidia slipped around 0.5–0.6%,
with the AP noting that these mega‑caps—with huge weights in the Nasdaq—were among the most significant individual drags on Wednesday’s trade. [27]
In other words, breadth was decent, but when the biggest names in the index step back, the Nasdaq struggles to move higher.
Retail and consumers: American Eagle soars, Macy’s whipsaws
Consumer‑facing names added drama:
- American Eagle Outfitters soared roughly 15% after reporting quarterly profit above expectations and describing a “strong start” to the holiday shopping season, particularly over the Thanksgiving weekend. [28]
- Macy’s shares swung between gains and losses despite posting a profit instead of the expected loss; its stock has already rallied more than 30% this year, so expectations were high. [29]
While American Eagle and Macy’s are not mega‑cap tech, their performance shapes sentiment about consumer strength, an important input for tech earnings and advertising‑driven platforms.
Biotech fireworks: Capricor’s triple‑digit pop
One of the day’s biggest outliers was Capricor Therapeutics, which the AP reported had surged more than 300% after promising trial results for a potential treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. [30]
Capricor is a small stock in index terms, but its move illustrates the risk‑on tone that still underpins parts of the Nasdaq, especially in biotech.
Crypto and fintech: riding Bitcoin’s recovery
Bitcoin’s rebound above $90,000–$93,000 has helped stabilize crypto‑linked stocks such as MicroStrategy and Coinbase, which had been hit hard during the prior session’s plunge. [31]
While these names are volatile and represent a small slice of the Nasdaq by weight, their resilience reinforces the sense that risk appetite remains alive, even as investors brace for more economic data.
What the Forecasts Say About the Nasdaq
Short‑term technical outlook: pullbacks as buying opportunities
FXEmpire’s intraday analysis on Wednesday argues that U.S. indices, including the Nasdaq 100, are attempting to resume their upward momentum after a period of consolidation:
- The Nasdaq 100 has “rallied slightly” and is pushing toward a potential breakout.
- Upside technical targets are highlighted around 26,000 and 26,250.
- The 25,000 area—backed by the 50‑day moving average—is flagged as key support, where short‑term dips may attract buyers. [32]
On Investing.com, a technical summary based on moving averages and momentum indicators currently gives the Nasdaq 100 a “Strong Buy” signal on the daily timeframe, with most tracked moving averages flashing “buy” rather than “sell.” [33]
Together, these views depict a market that is:
- Still in an uptrend,
- But likely entering a range‑bound or consolidating phase as it digests big gains and awaits confirmation from economic data.
Fundamental valuation: not cheap, not extreme
On the valuation side, Morningstar’s newly published December 2025 Stock Market Outlook estimates that U.S. equities overall trade at roughly a 3% discount to the firm’s composite fair value estimate. Value and small‑cap stocks led performance in November, while large‑cap growth—including many Nasdaq heavyweights—looks closer to “fairly valued.” [34]
In practical terms:
- The Nasdaq doesn’t look like a screaming bargain,
- But neither does it appear wildly overvalued relative to fundamentals, assuming earnings growth holds up and the Fed does start easing.
CFRA strategist Sam Stovall, in a separate December forecast, notes that the Nasdaq is up more than 20% year‑to‑dateand that December is historically one of the stronger months for U.S. equities. However, he also flags the risk of volatility around key data releases and the Fed decision. [35]
Algorithmic and long‑range forecasts: handle with care
A number of quantitative and algorithmic sites publish long‑term Nasdaq projections:
- LongForecast’s updated outlook suggests the Nasdaq Composite could finish December near 23,001, implying a modest decline from early‑month levels after trading in a wide range. [36]
- CoinPriceForecast projects the index ending 2025 around 23,680, modestly above current levels, and climbing further through 2026. [37]
These models can be useful to understand what some quantitative approaches imply, but they:
- Don’t incorporate real‑time changes in policy or earnings,
- Often rely on simplified assumptions, and
- Can diverge sharply from actual outcomes.
They should be treated as rough scenarios, not as actionable predictions.
What to Watch Next for Nasdaq Traders and Investors
With the Nasdaq hovering near record territory and the Fed pivot narrative front and center, here are the main catalysts to monitor over the coming days and weeks:
- Friday’s PCE inflation report
- A softer‑than‑expected print could confirm a December rate cut and potentially drive the Nasdaq to new highs.
- A hotter reading might challenge the “Fed is done with inflation” thesis and pressure high‑valuation growth stocks. [38]
- Upcoming Fed meeting and dot‑plot
- Beyond this month’s move, markets will scrutinize the path of future cuts and the updated projections for growth and inflation.
- Any hint that the Fed plans fewer cuts than markets expect could jolt tech multiples.
- Further labor‑market data
- After ADP’s weak private‑sector report, investors will look to the official nonfarm payrolls data for confirmation or contradiction. [39]
- AI and chip earnings guidance
- Names like Nvidia, AMD, and other AI infrastructure plays remain central to the Nasdaq story; any shift in AI spending trends could have outsized impact. [40]
- Crypto volatility
- Bitcoin’s bounce has helped risk sentiment, but another sharp swing could spill over into Nasdaq‑listed crypto and fintech stocks. [41]
What It All Means for Investors
For long‑term investors, today’s action in the Nasdaq looks less like a turning point and more like a pause inside an ongoing uptrend:
- The index is near record highs but not dramatically stretched on fundamentals according to widely followed valuation frameworks. [42]
- Technical and seasonal factors still lean modestly bullish, especially if the Fed indeed shifts from holding rates steady to cutting. [43]
- At the same time, growth‑sensitive sectors are highly exposed to surprises in jobs and inflation data.
For individuals, the usual principles apply:
- Focus on diversification, not just a handful of mega‑cap tech names.
- Align exposure to the Nasdaq and growth stocks with your time horizon and risk tolerance.
- Treat forecasts as scenarios, not guarantees—especially model‑driven long‑range projections.
Nothing in this article is investment advice, but the message from markets today is clear:
The Nasdaq remains in the driver’s seat of this bull run, yet its proximity to record highs and its sensitivity to interest‑rate expectations mean that data releases and Fed comments can quickly change the tone.
References
1. indexes.nasdaqomx.com, 2. indexes.nasdaqomx.com, 3. mynews13.com, 4. mynews13.com, 5. www.wsj.com, 6. www.fxempire.com, 7. indexes.nasdaqomx.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. stockinvest.us, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.wsj.com, 15. mynews13.com, 16. www.wsj.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. mynews13.com, 19. indexes.nasdaqomx.com, 20. www.wsj.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.fxempire.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. mynews13.com, 27. mynews13.com, 28. mynews13.com, 29. mynews13.com, 30. mynews13.com, 31. www.wsj.com, 32. www.fxempire.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.morningstar.com, 35. www.thestreet.com, 36. longforecast.com, 37. coinpriceforecast.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. finance.yahoo.com, 40. www.fxempire.com, 41. www.wsj.com, 42. www.morningstar.com, 43. www.fxempire.com
