As of 5:45 a.m. EST on Thursday, December 18, 2025, the Nasdaq is trying to stabilize in premarket trading after a sharp, AI-driven tech slide in the prior session—while investors brace for a high-stakes U.S. inflation report that could reset rate expectations heading into year-end.
Early indicators point to a tentative rebound: Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 190 points (+0.8%) around 5:10 a.m. ET, supported by a surge in Micron Technology after upbeat guidance, even as broader sentiment remains sensitive to the “big questions” hanging over AI spending, tech balance sheets, and the path of interest rates. [1]
Nasdaq premarket snapshot: A bounce attempt, but caution dominates
Futures were green across the board before the open, with Dow futures up ~60 points (+0.1%) and S&P 500 futures up ~28 points (+0.4%) near the same time Nasdaq futures led. [2]
Global markets were also edging higher, and U.S. Treasury yields were modestly lower in early trading—supportive conditions for growth stocks, at least on the surface. Reuters reported U.S. stock futures rising roughly 0.3% to 0.6%, with the 2-year yield near 3.464% and the 10-year around 4.133% in cautious trade. [3]
But traders are not treating this like a clean “risk-on” morning. Today’s session sits at the crossroads of:
- Inflation data that arrives with major gaps, following the government shutdown
- Rising scrutiny of AI infrastructure financing
- A busy central-bank day globally, including the Bank of England and ECB, plus a closely watched Bank of Japan decision Friday [4]
What happened to the Nasdaq yesterday: Three-week lows on AI funding jitters
Wednesday’s selloff hit the tech-heavy Nasdaq hard.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.81% (down 418 points) to 22,693.32, sliding to a three-week low, as markets wrestled with whether AI spending is becoming too expensive, too debt-funded, and too uncertain in payoff timelines. [5]
Several bellwethers dragged:
- Oracle sank 5.4% after a report tied to uncertainty around financing for a major AI data-center project. [6]
- Nvidia fell 3.8%, Broadcom dropped 4.5%, and the broader chip index slid 3.9%. [7]
- Alphabet declined 3.2% following reporting about initiatives to blunt Nvidia’s software advantage. [8]
The bigger takeaway for Nasdaq investors: the market is no longer just trading “AI demand” headlines. It’s increasingly trading AI financing—capex, debt, payback periods, and whether the infrastructure buildout is sustainable without pressuring balance sheets.
Micron flips the script—at least for this morning
The most important counterweight in today’s Nasdaq narrative is Micron Technology (MU).
Micron shares jumped in premarket after issuing a much stronger-than-expected profit forecast, benefiting from soaring prices and tight supply for high-bandwidth memory (HBM)—a critical component used in AI workloads. Reuters noted Micron is one of only a few leading global HBM suppliers and flagged management commentary indicating supply tightness could persist beyond 2026. [9]
The company’s optimism matters for Nasdaq because it pushes back on the idea that the AI trade is “over.” Instead, it suggests the market may be rotating from broad AI hype to AI supply-chain winners with visible pricing power.
That said, even Micron’s strength doesn’t automatically erase the financing debate—especially with investors still digesting the Oracle story that helped trigger yesterday’s wave of selling.
Oracle becomes a stress test for the AI infrastructure trade
Oracle sits at the center of today’s Nasdaq conversation because it embodies the tension between AI ambition and financial strain.
Reuters’ Breakingviews analysis argues Oracle’s aggressive AI push raises questions about financial risk and whether its spending trajectory can hold if market confidence continues to erode. [10]
And while Oracle has disputed parts of the data-center funding narrative, the episode is already shaping market psychology: investors are more aggressively questioning whether AI buildouts are being financed in ways that could pressure cash flow, credit, or equity dilution.
In short: Micron is giving Nasdaq a reason to rebound today—but Oracle is the reminder of why volatility can snap back quickly.
CPI day: The inflation print that arrives with missing pieces
The biggest scheduled catalyst for Nasdaq today is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. [11]
This release is unusual. Following the 2025 lapse in appropriations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has stated:
- October 2025 CPI “all items” and “core” estimates will not be published
- The November CPI release will not include 1-month percent changes for series where October data are missing [12]
That means markets may get a clearer year-over-year snapshot but a less useful read on near-term inflation momentum, which is often what moves yields—and by extension, high-duration tech valuations in the Nasdaq.
Consensus expectations cited widely across market coverage point to headline CPI around 3.1% year-over-year, with core inflation around 3.0%. [13]
Why this matters specifically for Nasdaq
Nasdaq-heavy sectors are especially sensitive to:
- The 10-year Treasury yield
- Expectations for how quickly the Fed can cut rates
- Whether inflation looks “sticky” enough to keep real yields elevated
But because monthly comparisons are limited in this CPI print, the initial market reaction may hinge less on the headline and more on:
- What the report suggests about services inflation (particularly shelter and medical care)
- How traders interpret the details without the usual month-to-month framework [14]
Rate-cut narrative: Fed signals, Waller’s comments, and a political overlay
In a market this rate-sensitive, the Fed backdrop is part of the Nasdaq story even before 9:30 a.m.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said policy remains restrictive and suggested the Fed could have room to cut, describing rates as roughly 50–100 basis points above “neutral,” while emphasizing there is “no rush” and the Fed can move at a moderate pace as the labor market softens. [15]
At the same time, Reuters reported President Donald Trump said the next Fed chair will favor much lower rates “by a lot,” adding another layer of uncertainty around the longer-run policy narrative and Fed independence debates. [16]
For Nasdaq traders, that mix can cut both ways:
- Dovish rate-cut expectations can support growth multiples
- But policy uncertainty (and concerns about inflation persistence) can keep volatility elevated—especially around major data prints like today’s CPI
Sector rotation and year-end outlook: Is the Nasdaq losing leadership?
A notable theme emerging in today’s commentary is rotation away from AI leaders, not necessarily a broad risk-off collapse.
Barron’s highlighted a developing shift: as AI stocks cool, investors have been looking more toward financials and other areas, even as tech remains a heavyweight driver of index-level moves. The same coverage pointed to Medline’s strong IPO debut as a reminder that risk appetite still exists—but may be moving outside the “crowded” parts of tech. [17]
For Nasdaq, the implication is straightforward:
- If rotation continues, Nasdaq can still rally—but may do so less explosively and with more internal dispersion (some AI winners up, leveraged AI buildouts down).
- If CPI or rates surprise the wrong way, Nasdaq may remain the most reactive major index on the downside.
Nasdaq stocks and themes to watch today
Here are the names and narratives most likely to steer intraday Nasdaq sentiment:
- Micron (MU): bullish AI-memory read-through; a key “confidence test” for semis today [18]
- Oracle (ORCL): AI infrastructure financing concerns and balance-sheet scrutiny remain a market pressure point [19]
- Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO): sentiment barometers for the AI complex after yesterday’s slide [20]
- Alphabet (GOOGL) and the AI software stack: competitive shifts around Nvidia’s ecosystem are back in focus [21]
- Instacart (CART): down sharply premarket after a report of an FTC probe tied to AI-based pricing allegations [22]
What happens next: The CPI reaction function for Nasdaq
Between now and the open, traders are largely positioning for the 8:30 a.m. ET CPI release. [23]
Because the report has data gaps, the most realistic setups for Nasdaq today look like:
- Relief rally scenario: CPI reads close to expectations and yields stay contained → Nasdaq benefits from Micron-led optimism and short-covering after a bruising tech session.
- Renewed pressure scenario: Any sign inflation is broadening or “staying hot,” even without monthly comparisons → yields creep higher → Nasdaq underperforms again.
- Choppy middle: CPI doesn’t shock, but AI financing doubts keep investors selective → Nasdaq swings while leadership narrows to a few names.
Nasdaq enters December 18 with two forces pulling in opposite directions: Micron’s upbeat AI signal pushing risk appetite back toward tech, and Oracle-driven financing anxiety reminding investors that the AI boom is now being judged by capital discipline, not just demand. With CPI due at 8:30 a.m., the next few hours are likely to set the tone for whether this rebound attempt becomes a real turnaround—or just a pause before the next volatility wave. [24]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.bls.gov, 12. www.bls.gov, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.washingtonpost.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.bls.gov, 24. www.investing.com
