Natco Pharma Share Price Today (8 December 2025): Q2 Results, Adcock Ingram Deal and 2026 Stock Outlook

Natco Pharma Limited (NSE: NATCOPHARM) is back in the spotlight as the stock trades lower on 8 December 2025 even while the company closes a landmark acquisition in South Africa and navigates life after its blockbuster Revlimid (lenalidomide) windfall.

Around late morning on Monday, 8 December, Natco Pharma was trading near ₹908–₹910 on the NSE, down roughly 2.5–3% from Friday’s close of ₹933.60. The stock has moved in a wide intraday band of about ₹904–946 and remains roughly 40% below its 52‑week high of ₹1,505, despite a 6–8% gain over the past week. ^[1]

Fundamentals remain solid—low leverage, strong profitability and new growth bets—but the market is wrestling with three big themes: a sharp step‑down in Revlimid earnings, higher R&D spend, and the ₹2,000‑crore‑plus Adcock Ingram acquisition in South Africa. ^[2]

This article pulls together all the key developments, forecasts and analyses available as of 8 December 2025 to sketch where Natco stands today—and what to watch through 2026.

Natco Pharma share price today: soft session after a strong run

On 8 December 2025:

Spot price: about ₹907–₹910, roughly –2.7% on the day.
Previous close: ₹933.60.
Intraday range: roughly ₹904–946.
Market cap: around ₹16,200 crore. ^[3]

Performance and valuation snapshot:

Year‑to‑date performance: about –33%.
Five‑day return: roughly +6–8%, helped by a short‑term rebound from late‑November lows. ^[4]
52‑week range:₹726.8 – ₹1,505; the stock is ~40% below its 52‑week high, according to Moneycontrol. ^[5]
Valuation (trailing):
- P/E: about 9–11×, versus sector multiples around 30–40×.
- P/B: roughly 2.1–2.3×.
- Dividend yield: around 0.5–0.7%. ^[6]
Risk profile:
- Beta under 1 on Mint’s dashboard (0.78), suggesting lower volatility than the market.
- Debt‑to‑equity: ~0.04, indicating a very lightly leveraged balance sheet. ^[7]

From a pure tape‑reading angle, StockInvest flags Natco as a short‑term “buy candidate” since 1 December, with the stock up nearly 8% over the last two weeks and trading in the upper part of a weak rising short‑term trend. Their models see a 3–4% potential upside over three months, with a 90% probability of the price ending up between roughly ₹835 and ₹988 over that window. ^[8]

At the same time, MarketsMojo notes that a recent trading session (2 December) saw value traded above ₹140 crore and volume above 15 lakh shares, with the stock outperforming both its sector and the Sensex—evidence that institutions and active traders are very much engaged. ^[9]

Q2 FY26 results: higher spend, lower profit—but still hefty margins

Natco’s latest Q2 FY26 results (quarter ended 30 September 2025) are the central piece of fundamental news investors are digesting right now.

Key reported numbers:

Consolidated revenue from operations: about ₹1,363 crore, nearly flat year‑on‑year (₹1,371.1 crore).
Total consolidated revenue: company communication pegs this higher at around ₹1,463 crore, likely including other income. ^[10]
Consolidated net profit (PAT):₹517.9 crore, down ~23–24% YoY from ₹676.5 crore. ^[11]
Total expenses: jumped to about ₹849 crore from ₹617 crore a year earlier, compressing margins. ^[12]

Operational mix:

Export formulations: still the workhorse, but down modestly to ₹1,147 crore (from ₹1,211 crore).
API business: slightly higher at ₹53.9 crore (vs ₹49.6 crore). ^[13]

Management and media commentary attribute the profit decline mainly to:

Higher R&D spend, including bioequivalence studies for complex generics.
One‑time employee bonuses and other provisions, which pushed up operating costs. ^[14]

Despite the drop, Q2 margins remain enviable for a generic pharma company, helped by the last meaningful leg of gRevlimid (generic Revlimid) profits.

Natco also announced a second interim dividend of ₹1.50 per share (face value ₹2) for FY26, with an ex‑date of 20 November and payment scheduled for 14 December 2025. StockInvest’s dividend tracker shows a pattern of small, frequent interim payouts—₹1.50 in February 2025, ₹2.00 in August, and ₹1.50 again in November 2025, following a similar run in late 2024. ^[15]

Looking back: the FY25 boom and the Q3 FY25 bust

To understand current nervousness, you have to rewind a bit.

In FY25 (year ended March 2025), Natco delivered blockbuster numbers:

Total revenue: ~₹4,784 crore.
EBITDA: ~₹2,550 crore with margins above 53%.
PAT: ~₹1,883 crore with ~39% PAT margin.
Revenue mix: roughly 80%+ from export formulations, with smaller contributions from APIs, domestic formulations and the crop‑health business. ^[16]

A large chunk of this profitability came from gRevlimid, the generic of Bristol Myers Squibb’s blockbuster cancer drug Revlimid, where Natco enjoyed a lucrative exclusivity window.

Then came Q3 FY25 (Dec 2024 quarter), which showed investors what life looks like without that windfall:

Net profit:₹132.4 crore, down about 38% YoY.
Revenue from operations:₹474.8 crore, down ~37% YoY.
Export formulations revenue nearly halved as Natco recorded no gRevlimid sales in that quarter. ^[17]

The market reaction was brutal: Natco’s shares fell around 20% on the day after results and kept sliding, logging a six‑session losing streak and hitting a 52‑week low in mid‑February 2025. ^[18]

That scar tissue is still visible in today’s one‑year performance chart.

Adcock Ingram: Natco’s big African bet is now closed

The defining strategic move of 2025 for Natco is its acquisition of a 35.75% stake in South African pharma major Adcock Ingram.

Deal structure and status

Natco agreed to acquire 35.75% of Adcock Ingram via a cash offer of R75 per share to public shareholders, partnering with South African conglomerate Bidvest, which holds the remaining ~64.25%. ^[19]
The transaction values Adcock’s equity at roughly R11 billion, with Natco’s stake costing about R4 billion (≈USD 226 million). ^[20]
Adcock was delisted from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange on 11 November 2025, and Natco announced completion of the 35.75% acquisition in mid‑November. ^[21]

Adcock Ingram is one of South Africa’s oldest and largest pharma companies, with:

A strong presence in over‑the‑counter brands such as Panado, Myprodol, Epi‑Max, Citro‑soda and Allergex. ^[22]
Annual sales around USD 550 million and PAT of roughly USD 46 million, according to Natco’s Q2 FY26 earnings call. ^[23]

Since Natco owns under 50%, Adcock will be treated as an associate, meaning:

Natco will consolidate its share of Adcock’s profits, not its full revenue.
Q2 FY26 includes only a partial quarter of profit contribution; full consolidation is expected from Q3 onwards. ^[24]

Balance sheet impact

On the same Q2 call, management outlined how the deal was funded:

Pre‑deal, Natco had around ₹3,900 crore of cash.
The company used approximately ₹1,600 crore of internal cash and raised about ₹400 crore of debt to fund the acquisition.
Management expects to end up with net cash still in the ₹2,700–2,800 crore range, keeping leverage conservative. ^[25]

For shareholders, the Adcock stake does three things:

Diversifies geography beyond the US‑centric generics portfolio.
Adds a steady, branded emerging‑market profit stream rather than just cyclical generic opportunities.
Introduces new risks: South African macro volatility, currency swings (ZAR/INR), and the complexity of integrating strategy with Bidvest.

Strategy beyond Revlimid: semaglutide, para‑IV pipeline and deep‑science bets

Natco’s fundamental story now hinges on whether it can replace fading Revlimid profits with a mix of complex generics and novel therapies.

Para‑IV / first‑to‑file (FTF) US pipeline

The company’s Q4 FY25 investor presentation highlights a deep para‑IV and FTF pipeline in the US, including:

Semaglutide (Ozempic / Wegovy) for diabetes and obesity.
Ibrutinib (Imbruvica), Olaparib (Lynparza), Carfilzomib (Kyprolis), Apixaban (Eliquis), and others across oncology and cardiovascular segments. ^[26]

Management emphasises that these are long‑dated, binary opportunities: any one success could be a “jackpot”, but timelines and competitive outcomes are uncertain. ^[27]

Semaglutide (weight‑loss and diabetes) – the buzziest piece

On recent calls and in brokerage reports, semaglutide is front and centre:

Natco has Indian clinical trials underway and expects to file for approval around early 2026, targeting a “first‑wave” launch around March–April 2026 if regulators cooperate. ^[28]
For the US, Natco has filed an ANDA and is pursuing FTF status on certain strengths/indications, but management flags launch as being “a few years away” with regulatory queries still under review. ^[29]

Brokerage commentary (ICICI Securities, Geojit and others collated by Trendlyne) broadly agrees that:

FY27 is likely to see a steep revenue degrowth as Revlimid fades.
The semaglutide opportunity plus domestic formulations could rebuild growth over time, but the path will be non‑linear. ^[30]

NCEs, cell and gene therapy options

Natco has also been quietly sowing seeds in cutting‑edge science:

Investments in xenotransplantation (eGenesis),
CAR‑T and gene therapies via Cellogen Therapeutics,
Cell‑based treatments for eye disease through Eyestem,
And novel small‑molecule NCEs like NRC‑2694 (a tyrosine kinase inhibitor now in Phase 2 trials for head and neck cancer). ^[31]

The capital outlay here is modest (tens of crores per year), but these are long‑horizon, high‑risk, high‑reward options, not near‑term earnings drivers.

What are analysts and models saying about Natco Pharma stock?

The Street view is mixed and, crucially, spread out.

Broker research (Trendlyne)

Trendlyne’s aggregation of recent broker reports shows: ^[32]

A consensus 12‑month target of around ₹985 vs. a current price near ₹910—~8–9% implied upside, tagged with an overall “Hold” stance.
ICICI Securities (15 Nov 2025):
- Rating: Sell, target ₹750.
- Thesis: Q2 FY26 beat was driven by higher‑than‑expected Revlimid supplies that will fade in H2 FY26; management guidance implies profitability dropping to about ₹2.75–3 billion in H2 vs ~₹10 billion in H1, meaning earnings are effectively at a near‑term peak.
Geojit BNP Paribas (Sep 2025):
- Rating: Hold, target ₹940 (now largely achieved).
- Thesis: acknowledges pipeline strength but builds in steep revenue degrowth in FY27 due to Revlimid, with the semaglutide‑led domestic strategy framed as the main offset.

Older reports from FY24–early FY25 had targets well above ₹1,400–1,600, but these assumed multi‑year Revlimid economics that are now clearly behind the company. ^[33]

Quant/aggregator targets

Different data platforms produce slightly different consensus numbers:

IndMoney (S&P data) – India analysts:
- Average target: ~₹985.
- High/low range:₹1,480 to ₹725.
- Implied upside vs recent price: ~5–6%, with 11 analysts in the sample. ^[34]
AlphaSpread – “Wall Street” style estimates:
- Average 1‑year target:₹938.4.
- Low / High:₹719.1 – ₹1,260, i.e., a 21% downside at the low end and ~39% upside at the top. ^[35]
TradingView forecast page:
- Average target: around ₹894.
- Range: roughly ₹712 – ₹1,160. ^[36]

Taken together, analyst and model targets cluster roughly in line with today’s price, but with a very wide band. That spread is the market’s way of saying, “We’re not sure how cleanly Natco can transition from one blockbuster era to the next.”

Technical picture: cautious optimism on the charts

On the technical side, most tools currently flash mildly bullish, not euphoric:

Mint’s dashboard shows Natco with a TTM P/E of 9.26 vs sector 30.57, and P/B of 2.24, with low leverage and a beta below 1—traits that often appeal to fundamentally‑minded traders looking for “value with catalysts.” ^[37]
An earlier Economic Times technical scan noted Natco trading above most key moving averages and a 14‑day RSI in the low‑50s, i.e., neither overbought nor oversold. ^[38]
StockInvest’s AI‑driven analysis calls Natco a short‑term buy candidate, with:
- Positive signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages.
- Support zones around ₹916–₹933 and a recommended stop‑loss near ₹894.
- Expected 3‑month price range ₹835–₹988 with 90% probability. ^[39]

Moneycontrol’s “MC Technicals” widget currently labels the trend “Very Bullish” on its internal scoring system, even though the stock remains nearly 40% below its 52‑week high. ^[40]

Short version: technicals are supportive but not screaming bargain, and there’s enough volatility left that both bulls and bears can find something to trade.

Regulatory track record: mixed signals but manageable (so far)

For any generics company, US FDA interactions can swing sentiment fast. Natco has seen both positive and worrying headlines in 2025:

In June 2025, the US FDA inspected Natco’s API plant at Mekaguda, Hyderabad, issuing just one Form 483 observation, which the company described as procedural and fully addressable. ^[41]
In November 2025, an inspection of the Manali API facility near Chennai reportedly resulted in seven Form 483 observations. Natco again stressed these were addressable and that it remained committed to cGMP compliance, but the stock did wobble around the news. ^[42]

So far there is no public indication of import alerts or warning letters, but investors will be watching for:

The final EIR (Establishment Inspection Report) classification.
Any hints in future earnings calls about remediation costs or capacity constraints.

Regulatory risk is not a Natco‑only story—it’s baked into the generic pharma model—but recent clusters of observations at multiple plants are a reminder that execution needs to stay tight.

Key risks around Natco Pharma

Stripped of price moves and buzzwords, Natco’s investment case has a fairly clean risk matrix:

Post‑Revlimid earnings cliff
- FY25 and early FY26 numbers were boosted by gRevlimid.
- Broker models and management commentary both anticipate much lower profitability in H2 FY26 and FY27 as the product becomes crowded and price‑eroded. ^[43]
Pipeline execution risk
- Semaglutide, Ibrutinib, Olaparib and other para‑IVs are high‑stakes races involving big global competitors.
- Delays, adverse legal outcomes or tough settlement terms could dramatically shrink the eventual profit pool.
Adcock Ingram integration and macro risk
- The South African market brings currency volatility, load‑shedding / infrastructure risks and a very different healthcare ecosystem.
- While Natco consolidates only 35.75% of Adcock’s profit, a mis‑step could still erode returns on the ~₹2,000‑crore capital deployed. ^[44]
Regulatory risk from US FDA
- Multiple Form 483 observations across plants in recent years mean heightened scrutiny.
- Any escalation to warning letters or import restrictions would hit both reputation and cash flows. ^[45]
R&D and capital allocation risk
- Early‑stage bets in xenotransplantation, CAR‑T and orphan‑drug platforms are inherently speculative.
- While the absolute rupee amounts are small, persistent missteps could still drag on ROE. ^[46]

Key triggers to watch in 2026

Looking forward, these are the main catalysts likely to move Natco’s stock:

Q3 and Q4 FY26 results
- The first full quarters with minimal Revlimid contribution and full Adcock profit consolidation.
- Investors will be laser‑focused on whether the company can stabilise PAT near management guidance and keep margins respectable. ^[47]
Regulatory progress on semaglutide in India
- Completion and read‑out of the ongoing clinical trial, regulatory filing around early 2026, and potential launch around March–April 2026 will be big narrative events. ^[48]
US FDA follow‑ups at Mekaguda and Manali
- Any upgrade/downgrade in inspection status will quickly show up in the share price. ^[49]
Further M&A or partnerships
- Management has explicitly said it is “always open” to deals in the US and elsewhere, even after Adcock, given substantial remaining cash. ^[50]
Brokerage rating changes
- With current views ranging from Sell (ICICI Securities) to Hold/Accumulate (Geojit and others), any big post‑earnings upgrades or downgrades could act as short‑term triggers. ^[51]

Frequently asked questions on Natco Pharma (NATCOPHARM.NS)

1. What is Natco Pharma’s share price today?

As of late morning on 8 December 2025, Natco Pharma trades around ₹908–₹910 per share on the NSE, down roughly 2.7% from the previous close of ₹933.60. Intraday, it has traded between about ₹904 and ₹946. ^[52]

2. What is the 12‑month share price target for Natco Pharma?

Depending on the data source:

India broker consensus (Trendlyne / S&P feed): around ₹985 (~8–9% above current price), with a “Hold” consensus. ^[53]
Global models (AlphaSpread):₹938 average, with a wide ₹719–₹1,260 range. ^[54]
TradingView analysts: average near ₹894, with estimates between ₹712 and ₹1,160. ^[55]

The spread of targets is large, reflecting uncertainty about the post‑Revlimid earnings base and how quickly semaglutide and other launches can ramp.

3. Is Natco Pharma a buy, sell or hold right now?

Analyst stances are split:

At least one major brokerage (ICICI Securities) currently has a Sell rating, arguing earnings are near a cyclical peak and will normalise sharply in H2 FY26 and FY27. ^[56]
Others (like Geojit) lean Hold/Accumulate, seeing value in the pipeline and Adcock but baking in a tough FY27. ^[57]
Quant‑style technical models and some retail‑oriented platforms (StockInvest, Moneycontrol’s MC Technicals) classify the near‑term trend as bullish and the stock as a short‑term buy candidate. ^[58]

For an individual investor, whether Natco is a buy, sell or hold depends on:

Risk tolerance (the stock is volatile),
View on semaglutide and para‑IV execution,
Comfort with emerging‑market exposure via Adcock Ingram, and
Time horizon (this is not a quick, guaranteed turnaround story).

This article summarises public information; it is not personalised investment advice. Any decision should be based on your own research or consultation with a registered financial adviser.

4. How important is the Adcock Ingram acquisition for Natco?

Adcock is likely to become:

A meaningful, steady profit contributor, with Natco entitled to ~36% of a ~USD 46m PAT pool at current run‑rate. ^[59]
A platform for cross‑selling Natco’s pipeline into South Africa and potentially the wider African market.
A test case for Natco’s ability to execute large cross‑border deals.

If things go well, Adcock can smooth earnings volatility and partially offset the Revlimid drop‑off; if things go poorly, it could become a large, illiquid asset in a difficult macro environment.

5. What should investors watch most closely in Natco’s story?

Three big sign‑posts:

H2 FY26 and FY27 earnings: do margins stabilise once Revlimid normalises, or is there a deeper reset? ^[60]
Semaglutide progress in India and the US: both regulatory milestones and early market traction will heavily influence medium‑term valuations. ^[61]
Regulatory clean‑up and Adcock integration: a string of clean FDA inspections and steadily rising Adcock profit contribution would go a long way toward rebuilding market confidence. ^[62]

References