National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) is in the spotlight on 12 December 2025 as shareholders digest a packed day that combined NAB’s 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) with the payment of the bank’s fully franked final dividend—two events that often sharpen market focus on strategy, capital returns, and risk.
NAB shares were quoted around A$42.14 on a delayed basis in the latest available market snapshot, with the stock up about 1.84% at that reading. [1]
Below is a detailed roundup of the key news, vote outcomes, guidance signals, and analyst expectations shaping the NAB investment narrative today.
NAB share price today: what the market is reacting to
While day-to-day moves in big banks can be driven by bond yields, rate expectations and sector flows, today’s attention is unusually “company-specific” because:
- NAB’s 2025 final dividend is payable today, putting capital returns front and centre.
- The AGM delivered fresh commentary on business momentum, cost and risk discipline, technology investment, and governance.
- Shareholders also pushed NAB on nature-related risk and deforestation, a theme that is increasingly material for lenders with large agribusiness exposure.
At the time of the latest delayed quote, NAB traded at A$42.14, and Investing.com’s consensus page displayed a 52‑week range of A$31.13 to A$45.25. [2]
Dividend paid today: NAB’s 85c fully franked final dividend
NAB confirms its 2025 final dividend is 85 cents per ordinary share, 100% franked (at the company tax rate of 30%) and payable on 12 December 2025. [3]
Key dates (useful for investors tracking income timing and index/ETF flows):
- Payment date: 12 December 2025 [4]
- Ex-dividend date: 11 November 2025 [5]
- Record date: 12 November 2025 [6]
In the Chair’s AGM address, NAB also stated dividends for the year totalled 170 cents per share (i.e., 85c interim + 85c final). [7]
What that implies for yield (roughly): using the delayed quote of A$42.14 and annual dividends of A$1.70, the “headline” cash yield is about 4.0% before any franking-credit considerations (franking value depends on investor type and tax position). [8]
AGM headline message: “simpler, more modern” NAB—and capital returns remain a core pillar
Chair Philip Chronican: controls, compliance, capital strength, and buybacks
In NAB’s AGM materials, Chair Philip Chronican emphasised the bank’s push to become “a simpler, more modern bank,” while reiterating governance and accountability as foundations. [9]
A few lines stood out for investors focused on “bank quality” and capital discipline:
- NAB said it finalised its Enforceable Undertaking with AUSTRAC in 2025 (a meaningful compliance milestone). [10]
- The Chair noted additional payroll issues were uncovered and that NAB launched a broader review and remediation effort. [11]
- NAB reported a capital surplus against its CET1 target of above 11.25% as at 30 September 2025. [12]
- The Chair said NAB returned $5.2 billion to shareholders, retains a bias to reduce share count, and has completed $8 billion in on‑market buybacks since August 2021, while continuing to neutralise its dividend reinvestment plan. [13]
CEO Andrew Irvine: the three priorities investors should map everything onto
CEO Andrew Irvine framed NAB’s execution around three priorities:
- Growing the business bank
- Driving deposit growth
- Strengthening proprietary home lending [14]
In the CEO address, NAB highlighted performance indicators that matter for earnings durability:
- Australian business lending balances rose 9% over the year, with total customer deposits up 7% (and NAB pointing to market-share improvement). [15]
- In home lending, NAB said the proportion of new loans written through its own bankers improved to 41% in FY2025, reflecting a push toward “proprietary” origination (typically associated with better economics than third‑party channels). [16]
NAB also disclosed leadership changes, including Inder Singh joining as Group CFO and Group Executive, Strategy in March 2026, alongside other senior appointments in business banking, digital/data/AI and transformation. [17]
AGM voting: strong support for board and pay—but a visible ESG signal on deforestation
Overwhelming support for directors and remuneration
NAB’s proxy/advance-vote snapshot showed very high “for” votes on core governance items, including:
- Re‑election of Chair Philip Chronican: 97.84% for [18]
- Re‑election of Kathryn Fagg: 96.84% for [19]
- Remuneration report: 97.58% for [20]
Constitution change rejected; deforestation resolutions drew double‑digit support
The more contentious items were linked to shareholder campaigning on financed deforestation.
In NAB’s advance-vote slide:
- A proposed amendment to the company’s constitution received only 6.01% support (and was overwhelmingly opposed). [21]
- Two shareholder‑requisitioned deforestation-related resolutions showed:
NAB’s own schedule of advance voting results also listed these deforestation items and vote totals as at the proxy/direct voting close. [24]
Separately, the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) characterised today’s outcome as meaningful investor pressure, stating the disclosure resolution was supported by 13.98% of shares voted and the strategy resolution by 10.39%. [25]
NAB’s response: “complex” issue; climate resolution withdrawn
In the Chair’s address, NAB acknowledged stakeholder concern on deforestation and said it would continue to enhance its approach to measuring and managing nature-related risk. [26]
NAB also stated that a separate shareholder-requisitioned resolution regarding a Customer Transition Plan Approach and Climate Commitments was withdrawn following updated disclosures in its 2025 climate reporting, and therefore would not be voted on at the meeting. [27]
“Productivity” enters the narrative: why that matters for bank investors
In prepared AGM remarks reported today, CEO Andrew Irvine warned that weak productivity growth threatens Australia’s long-term living standards, while still describing the current economy as resilient. He pointed to areas such as housing, regulatory simplification, AI/technology innovation and energy affordability as potential productivity levers. [28]
Why the market cares: productivity trends influence real wage growth, credit demand, business formation, housing supply, and ultimately loan growth vs. arrears risk—the slow-moving tectonic plates under bank earnings.
Housing: NAB is leaning into “big societal problem” positioning
NAB is increasingly tying its brand and balance sheet to Australia’s housing challenge—both as a growth lane and as a national priority.
In late October, NAB announced an ambition to provide at least $60 billion in financing to boost housing affordability by 2030, split as:
- $30bn toward financing new housing supply (including build‑to‑rent, student accommodation, land lease and community housing), and
- $30bn to support first home buyers via the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme, with NAB suggesting the ambition could support ~55,000 first‑home‑buyer loans and ~50,000 new homes (subject to constraints and assumptions). [29]
This week, NAB also highlighted practical execution via partnerships—such as providing construction finance for Assemble projects totalling around $500 million, including $200 million under NAB’s green commercial real estate finance. [30]
Rates and margins: the macro backdrop is shifting again
Australian banks live and die by the interaction between:
- funding costs (especially deposits),
- loan pricing,
- credit demand, and
- impairment cycles.
Two data points investors are weighing:
- NAB’s CEO referenced that household incomes have benefited from cash rate cuts earlier in 2025 (February, May, and August), while noting some customers kept repayments higher to pay down loans faster. [31]
- More recently, Reuters reported the RBA held rates at 3.6% and warned the next move could be up if inflation proves stubborn—an important “higher-for-longer (or higher-again)” risk for funding costs and borrower stress. [32]
Latest financial performance context: NAB’s FY2025 profit and asset-quality signals
Although today’s catalyst is the AGM, investors are still anchoring to NAB’s most recent full-year results.
Reuters reported that for the year ended 30 September 2025, NAB posted cash profit of A$7.09 billion, slightly below Visible Alpha consensus A$7.17 billion, with net interest margin at 1.74% and a credit impairment charge up 14.4%, attributed in part to business lending. [33]
That combination—stable profit, modest margin movement, and rising impairments—helps explain why some analysts are cautious even as NAB talks up momentum.
Analyst forecasts for NAB stock: consensus rating points to downside
One of the cleanest “at-a-glance” snapshots of sell-side expectations today:
- Overall consensus: Sell
- Analyst mix: 2 Buy / 5 Hold / 7 Sell (poll of the past 3 months)
- Average 12‑month target:A$37.991, described as about ‑9.85% downside from the cited price
- Target range: high around A$46.31, low around A$29, based on 14 analysts [34]
The same page lists examples of recent firm targets/actions (illustrative, not exhaustive), including targets from Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Citi, and CLSA with differing stances—signalling a market still debating whether NAB’s current valuation fully prices in the risk/margin cycle. [35]
The NAB stock debate right now: what bulls and bears are really arguing about
The bull case (what has to go right)
- Business bank strength persists and NAB continues to defend/extend share in its core franchise. [36]
- Deposits grow without the bank “overpaying” so much that margins erode faster than volume helps. [37]
- The “simpler, safer, faster” operating model translates into measurable productivity gains (technology spend → lower unit costs, better customer outcomes, fewer operational blow-ups). [38]
- Capital management remains shareholder-friendly (dividends + buybacks) without compromising regulatory buffers. [39]
The bear case (what can break)
- Margin pressure from the tug-of-war between falling/volatile rates and intense deposit competition. [40]
- Credit impairments keep drifting higher—especially if the business-lending cycle turns or cost pressures re-accelerate. [41]
- Operational/regulatory risk reappears (payroll remediation, cyber/scam risk, and the ever-watchful eye of regulators). [42]
- ESG/nature-risk scrutiny grows into tangible constraints (policy changes, disclosure requirements, reputational risk affecting customer acquisition or funding spreads). [43]
What to watch next
Over the coming months, NAB investors will likely keep circling a familiar set of signals:
- Deposit pricing and mix (a leading indicator for margin direction)
- Business credit quality (watch arrears trends and impairment charges)
- Evidence that technology and process simplification are paying off (service metrics and cost discipline)
- How NAB responds to “financed deforestation” pressure (even with resolutions failing procedurally, double‑digit support can influence voluntary disclosure over time) [44]
- Leadership transitions (notably the incoming CFO in March 2026) and execution continuity [45]
Bottom line
As of 12 December 2025, NAB stock’s story is less about a single earnings surprise and more about a three-way tension:
- Shareholder returns (dividend paid today; buyback bias reiterated), [46]
- Core banking execution (business lending + deposits + home lending channel economics), [47]
- Non-financial risk (compliance, operational remediation, cyber/scams, and accelerating nature/climate scrutiny). [48]
Analysts, on balance, are currently cautious: the average target price sits below the latest quoted level and the consensus rating skews negative. [49]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.nab.com.au, 4. www.nab.com.au, 5. www.nab.com.au, 6. www.nab.com.au, 7. news.nab.com.au, 8. www.investing.com, 9. news.nab.com.au, 10. news.nab.com.au, 11. news.nab.com.au, 12. news.nab.com.au, 13. news.nab.com.au, 14. news.nab.com.au, 15. news.nab.com.au, 16. news.nab.com.au, 17. news.nab.com.au, 18. news.nab.com.au, 19. news.nab.com.au, 20. news.nab.com.au, 21. news.nab.com.au, 22. news.nab.com.au, 23. news.nab.com.au, 24. news.nab.com.au, 25. www.acf.org.au, 26. news.nab.com.au, 27. news.nab.com.au, 28. www.news.com.au, 29. news.nab.com.au, 30. news.nab.com.au, 31. news.nab.com.au, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. news.nab.com.au, 37. news.nab.com.au, 38. news.nab.com.au, 39. news.nab.com.au, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. news.nab.com.au, 43. news.nab.com.au, 44. news.nab.com.au, 45. news.nab.com.au, 46. www.nab.com.au, 47. news.nab.com.au, 48. news.nab.com.au, 49. www.investing.com
