National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) is heading into the year-end break with investors weighing a familiar big-bank cocktail: rate-cycle uncertainty, fierce mortgage and deposit competition, and the steady grind of costs and compliance—plus a handful of late-December ASX filings tied to employee equity.
It’s also worth noting the calendar reality: the ASX is closed on Friday, 26 December 2025 (Boxing Day), after an early close on Wednesday, 24 December 2025. [1]
Below is a detailed, up-to-date wrap of the current news flow, forecasts, and market analysis as of 26.12.2025, written in a format suitable for Google News and Discover.
NAB share price: where the stock left off before the Boxing Day market break
Because the ASX is closed on 26 December, the most recent session to anchor “today’s” discussion is the early-close trading day on 24 December. The available end-of-day data shows NAB shares finishing that session around the low-40s (AUD). [2]
That matters for interpretation: many of the “fresh” market takes you’ll see dated 26 December are really holiday-thinned context pieces, while the last price discovery for NAB happened earlier in the week.
What’s new for NAB this week: ASX filings focused on employee equity
In late December, NAB released two very “classic big-bank” disclosures: not a strategy bombshell, but the kind of paperwork that slightly changes share counts and keeps remuneration structures transparent.
1) NAB applies for quotation of 2,492,875 ordinary shares (employee equity plan)
On Tuesday, 23 December 2025, NAB lodged an Appendix 2A applying for quotation of 2,492,875 ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 16/12/2025. The filing states these securities relate to an employee incentive scheme (NAB’s 2025 Employee Equity Plans), including a deferral period where shares are held in trust and cannot be dealt with by the participant. [3]
This is typically not a “price mover” by itself, but it is material to investors watching:
- incremental dilution vs. buybacks
- remuneration alignment with shareholders
- the cadence of equity issuance over time
2) NAB discloses unquoted performance rights issued under employee equity plans
Also dated 23 December 2025, NAB filed an Appendix 3G relating to unquoted equity securities—specifically performance rights issued under employee incentive plans, with issue dates including 16/12/2025 and 17/12/2025. [4]
The same document also provides a snapshot of the broader capital mix, including the reported number of quoted ordinary shares on issue and the total performance rights on issue at that time. [5]
Corporate governance: AGM outcomes and leadership-team signals
NAB’s 2025 Annual General Meeting results were released on 12 December 2025. The results include director re-elections and other resolutions, with at least one shareholder requisitioned item not passing as a special resolution. [6]
Separately, the Chair and CEO address/proxy summary (AGM materials) is relevant for investors because it adds color on execution priorities and leadership continuity. In that document, NAB highlighted:
- ongoing progress on its refreshed strategy
- payroll issues and remediation work
- a bias toward reducing share count over time (buybacks and DRP neutralisation)
- leadership appointments, including a CFO appointment scheduled for March 2026 [7]
While AGM decks rarely move the stock immediately, they often shape the market’s confidence in “boring execution”—which is exactly what tends to drive large bank valuations over multi-quarter horizons.
NAB fundamentals: the latest full-year results snapshot investors are using
The latest major financial anchor point remains NAB’s FY25 full-year results (year ended September 2025), released in early November.
Key figures and operating themes disclosed in NAB’s FY25 results summary include:
- Cash earnings:$7,091m
- Statutory net profit:$6,759m
- Final dividend:85 cents per share
- CET1 ratio:11.70%
- FY25 operating trends such as revenue +2.9%, gross loans and advances +5.9%, deposits +7.4%, and NIM at 1.74% [8]
The results summary also frames NAB’s strategic emphasis as: growing business banking, driving deposit growth, and strengthening proprietary home lending, alongside continued investment in technology and productivity. [9]
Reuters’ reporting on the annual result similarly highlighted broadly stable cash profit around A$7.09 billion, expense pressures, business lending and deposit growth, and the housing-policy angle the CEO has been vocal about. [10]
NAB dividend: what investors just received, and what comes next
For income-focused holders, the headline is simple:
- NAB’s 2025 Final Dividend was set at 85c per ordinary share, 100% franked, payable on 12 December 2025. [11]
- NAB’s results materials and AGM commentary also discuss total dividends for the year and how capital management (including buybacks) fits into shareholder returns. [12]
Key upcoming NAB dates (2026 calendar)
If you’re looking for the next “known catalysts” (events that often concentrate analyst updates and price volatility), NAB’s published financial calendar lists:
- 18 February 2026 – First Quarter Trading Update
- 4 May 2026 – Half Year Results Announcement
- 7 May 2026 – Ex–dividend Date for Interim Dividend
- 8 May 2026 – Record Date for Interim Dividend
- 2 July 2026 – Payment Date for Interim Dividend
- 5 November 2026 – Full Year Results Announcement
- 10 November 2026 – Ex–dividend Date for Final Dividend
- 11 November 2026 – Record Date for Final Dividend
- 10 December 2026 – Annual General Meeting
- 15 December 2026 – Payment Date for Dividend [13]
In other words: the next major fundamentals-driven “information dump” is the February 2026 trading update. [14]
The macro backdrop: rates, regulation, and why bank investors keep staring at the RBA
1) Where the cash rate stands heading into 2026
NAB’s own rate notice indicates the RBA cash rate remained at 3.60% following the 9 December 2025 announcement. [15]
But markets don’t price “where rates are”; they price “where rates are going.”
2) RBA minutes and the market’s rate-path anxiety
Recent Reuters reporting on RBA minutes signaled policymakers did not want to rule out further tightening if inflation proved sticky—language that tends to keep bank valuations sensitive to every incremental inflation print. [16]
For NAB specifically, the rate path can cut both ways:
- Higher rates can support asset yields, but also risk credit stress and slower credit demand.
- Lower rates can stimulate lending growth, but compress margins if competition intensifies faster than funding costs fall.
3) APRA warning: don’t loosen lending standards to win market share
Another major “bank stock” driver is regulation and system risk. Reuters reported that Australia’s prudential regulator APRA warned major banks not to reduce lending standards amid lower interest rates and intense mortgage competition. The report also flagged high household debt as a key vulnerability and raised concerns about how risky lending could rise if standards deteriorate as borrowing demand lifts. [17]
This matters to NAB shareholders because it shapes what banks can do to chase growth—and how much risk they can take to defend margins.
Risk and reputation: financial crime headlines investors can’t ignore
One of the more serious NAB-related headlines in recent months came via Reuters: police charged a former NAB employee alleged to have facilitated fraudulent lending as part of a major crime syndicate. Reuters reported NAB’s statement that it has “zero tolerance” for criminal conduct, acted swiftly, and said there was no customer impact. [18]
For long-term investors, stories like this usually feed into a broader question: will compliance costs and operational risk keep drifting upward, even if headline profitability looks stable?
Analyst forecasts for NAB stock: what price targets are implying right now
Analyst targets are not facts of the universe; they’re a regularly updated poll of models. Still, they’re useful for understanding market consensus expectations—and where disagreement lives.
Across widely followed market platforms, consensus targets around late December 2025 cluster in the high-30s AUD (with wide ranges):
- TradingView shows an average target around 37.77, with a high target in the mid-40s and a low target in the high-20s (platform snapshot). [19]
- TipRanks shows an average target around the high-30s, with dispersion that stretches into the low-40s on the bullish end (platform snapshot). [20]
- Investing.com similarly reports an average target in the high-30s, with a broad range between the high-20s and mid-40s depending on the analyst. [21]
How to read that (without doing the “price target astrology” thing)
If the stock is trading in the low-40s and consensus targets cluster in the high-30s, the market is effectively saying:
- “We like NAB as a franchise,” but
- “We’re not paying any price for it,” especially with margin pressure, cost inflation, and regulation limiting risk-taking.
That’s a very typical late-cycle big-bank valuation stance: quality acknowledged, upside debated.
Current analysis themes: what’s actually driving the bull vs. bear cases
Here are the main narratives that keep showing up in current analysis of NAB and the Australian major banks:
The bull case (why investors stay long big banks anyway)
- Scale + deposits + business banking strength: NAB’s strategy messaging continues to emphasise business banking growth and deposit momentum. [22]
- Capital management: NAB’s AGM materials discuss shareholder returns, buybacks, and a bias toward reducing share count over time. [23]
- Dividend appeal: with the final dividend confirmed at 85c, 100% franked, NAB remains a classic income stock in the ASX ecosystem. [24]
The bear case (why upside gets capped)
- Margin pressure from competition: competition for mortgages and deposits remains intense, and regulators are explicitly warning banks not to “win” by loosening standards. [25]
- Costs keep creeping: NAB has flagged payroll issues and remediation, alongside ongoing technology investment—good long-term, but not always friendly to near-term cost-to-income optics. [26]
- Credit risk sensitivity: even with stable arrears narratives, a macro shock can change the impairment story quickly—especially in a highly indebted household system. [27]
A Moody’s-linked commentary in regional financial press has also pointed to the drag from higher costs and loan competition on the earnings outlook for Australian banks, reinforcing why the market can stay cautious even when profits look “fine.” [28]
The practical takeaway for NAB stock on 26.12.2025
With the ASX shut for Boxing Day, today is less about trading and more about positioning. What NAB investors appear to be carrying into 2026 is:
- A steady dividend narrative, with the FY25 final dividend already paid and the 2026 calendar mapped. [29]
- Incremental capital structure updates, via employee equity plan-related share quotation and performance rights filings in late December. [30]
- A valuation debate: consensus price targets (as aggregated by major platforms) lean conservative versus recent trading levels, suggesting the market wants clearer evidence of margin stability and cost control. [31]
- A macro/regulatory reality check: rate-path uncertainty persists, and APRA is explicitly focused on maintaining lending standards in a competitive mortgage market. [32]
As always with bank stocks, the “boring” variables—net interest margin trajectory, deposit pricing, impairments, and costs—tend to matter more than the headlines. The next major test of that story arrives with NAB’s 18 February 2026 trading update. [33]
References
1. asxonline.com, 2. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 3. company-announcements.afr.com, 4. company-announcements.afr.com, 5. company-announcements.afr.com, 6. company-announcements.afr.com, 7. company-announcements.afr.com, 8. announcements.asx.com.au, 9. announcements.asx.com.au, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.nab.com.au, 12. announcements.asx.com.au, 13. www.nab.com.au, 14. www.nab.com.au, 15. www.nab.com.au, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. announcements.asx.com.au, 23. company-announcements.afr.com, 24. www.nab.com.au, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. announcements.asx.com.au, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. asianbankingandfinance.net, 29. www.nab.com.au, 30. company-announcements.afr.com, 31. www.tradingview.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.nab.com.au
