Updated: Saturday, 13 December 2025 (latest market close: Friday, 12 December 2025)
National Grid plc (LSE: NG.) ended Friday at 1,118.5p, up 0.22% on the day, with the UK market closed over the weekend. The stock is still trading near the upper half of its 52‑week range (909.8p–1,183.5p) and sits on a dividend yield of about 4.18%, keeping it firmly in the “income + infrastructure growth” lane of the FTSE 100. [1]
This week’s story isn’t just “utility shares drift with bond yields.” It’s also about regulatory visibility and grid build-out urgency—with Ofgem and NESO rolling out policy moves that could reshape the UK’s connection queues, accelerate major transmission projects, and lock in the next phase of National Grid’s regulated return framework. [2]
National Grid share price this week: what the tape is saying
National Grid’s shares softened over the week: from 1,134.5p (Fri, 5 Dec) to 1,118.5p (Fri, 12 Dec)—a slide of roughly 1.4% based on closing prices. The stock also faded from early‑month levels near 1,150p (2 Dec close) as the market digested a dense run of UK grid regulation headlines. [3]
Two practical read‑throughs investors often apply to National Grid:
- Rates sensitivity (“bond proxy” behaviour): regulated utilities can move inversely with sovereign yields because investors compare dividend yields to gilts.
- Regulatory/capex visibility: when Ofgem decisions clarify allowed returns and investment allowances, utilities can re-rate—up or down—depending on perceived “investability”.
This week, the second factor dominated the headlines.
The big catalyst: Ofgem’s RIIO‑T3 Final Determination and why investors care
On 4 December, National Grid said Ofgem published its Final Determination for RIIO‑T3 covering National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET) for April 2026 to March 2031. The package includes a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing. [4]
National Grid welcomed Ofgem’s recognition that the UK needs significant investment to maintain reliability and (in the company’s words) “nearly double” power transfer capability, but it also made clear the firm will review whether the overall framework is “investable and workable.” It pointed specifically to the incentive framework and totex mechanisms (how efficiently incurred investment costs can be recovered) as key issues, with a response expected in early March 2026. [5]
Why this matters for NG. stock in plain English:
- RIIO sets the “rules of the game” for how National Grid gets paid for building and operating transmission assets.
- The allowed return (cost of equity + cost of debt assumptions) shapes cash flow durability and dividend cover headroom.
- Totex recovery rules influence whether “spend more to build faster” becomes a value creator—or a margin squeeze.
In other words: this is the kind of decision that can shift sentiment for months, not days.
Ofgem’s £28bn network funding green light: near-term bill impact, long-term grid tailwind
Also on 4 December, Ofgem announced it had approved £28 billion of investment to maintain and upgrade Britain’s energy networks—£17.8bn for gas networks and £10.3bn for electricity transmission—rising to an estimated £90bn by 2031 across gas and electricity networks. [6]
Ofgem’s framing is blunt and very “regulator”: investing now adds costs to bills sooner, but delaying is expected to be more expensive overall. In the same release, Ofgem said the package would add £108 to bills by 2031 (£48 gas, £60 electricity), but deliver savings of around £80 compared to not expanding the grid. Ofgem put the net increase at roughly £30 by 2031, or less than £3 per month. [7]
For National Grid investors, that settlement is important because it signals the regulator is willing to approve very large, multi‑year spend—the central fuel for regulated asset base (RAB) growth.
Grid connection reform: NESO and Ofgem move to kill “zombie” projects and unclog the queue
If you’ve followed UK energy policy recently, you’ll have heard the same complaint on loop: “We can build wind/solar/storage faster than we can connect it.” This week delivered a real policy shove.
On 8 December, Great Britain’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) said it is implementing major connection reforms and confirmed a new “delivery pipeline” aligned to a new Ofgem‑approved process. NESO said the overhaul could unlock up to £40bn in annual investment, and referenced unlocking 283 GW of generation and storage and 99 GW of transmission‑connected demand. [8]
Reuters reported the reforms replace the old first‑come, first‑served approach, in a context where the queue had grown to more than 700 GW of projects seeking connection—far more than needed for national targets—while prioritising projects that are developed and aligned with national goals. [9]
Ofgem followed up with a press release describing an “end‑to‑end” review and proposals to standardise processes, enforce deadlines, and introduce tougher sanctions where operators miss milestones, alongside higher compensation and more transparent data on capacity and queue position. [10]
Why it matters to National Grid (beyond politics):
- National Grid is a major network owner/operator; reforms can change the incentives, penalties, and operational workload associated with connections.
- Faster, clearer pipelines can improve capex planning—but also raise expectations for delivery speed.
- “Power‑hungry demand” (including data centres) is now explicitly part of the policy narrative—meaning networks that can connect demand reliably may see a stronger investment case. [11]
Ofgem backs early investment for “electricity superhighways” tied to National Grid
Ofgem also announced it agreed early investment and updated dates for proposed “electricity superhighways,” including:
- Eastern Green Link 3 (EGL3) and Eastern Green Link 4 (EGL4) — proposed subsea cables, 2 GW each, moving offshore wind power between Scotland and England.
- GWNC — a new onshore 400kV link between Grimsby and Walpole to help move energy to consumers.
Ofgem said a cost‑benefit analysis by NESO indicated redesigned projects could deliver £3–£6 billion of benefit to consumers versus the original design—primarily through earlier delivery and avoided constraint costs. Ofgem also noted EGL3 and EGL4 are joint ventures involving National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET) alongside Scottish transmission owners. [12]
This is strategically on‑message for National Grid: big regulated transmission assets, justified by consumer benefits, under a policy regime aiming to accelerate delivery.
Company updates in the last few days: audit tender, insider plan purchases, and dividend details
While regulation dominated headlines, National Grid also pushed out several “plumbing but important” corporate updates:
Audit tender outcome
National Grid announced the outcome of a formal audit tender process, with the board approving the proposed re‑appointment of Deloitte LLP as external auditor from (and including) the financial year ending 31 March 2028, subject to shareholder approval at the relevant AGM. [13]
Director/PDMR shareholding notifications
A regulatory notice (as carried via Refinitiv) disclosed monthly purchases of shares under the Share Incentive Plan by senior executives, including Chief Financial Officer Andy Agg and Chief People Officer Will Serle—each reporting purchases at a price of £11.3943 per share (i.e., ~1,139.43p) for a volume of 13 shares in the example shown. [14]
These transactions are typically small and shouldn’t be over‑interpreted—but they’re still part of the near‑term news flow.
Dividend: interim payment date and scrip reference price
Hargreaves Lansdown’s dividend schedule shows National Grid’s interim dividend of 16.35p (ex‑dividend 20 Nov 2025) is due to be paid on 13 Jan 2026. [15]
National Grid also released scrip dividend reference pricing: 1,130.40p per ordinary share (and a reference price of $74.2334 per ADR, where relevant). [16]
Fundamentals check: what National Grid said in its latest results and what the spending plan implies
Even for a regulated utility, the financial engine matters—especially when capex is rising and net debt is expected to climb.
Half-year performance (six months ended 30 September 2025)
In its half-year reporting, National Grid highlighted:
- Underlying operating profit: £2,292m
- Underlying EPS: 29.8p
- Capital investment: £5,052m
- Dividend in line with policy: 16.35p
All of those were shown as year-on-year increases in the presentation materials. [17]
Reuters also reported the underlying operating profit of £2.29bn compared with company-compiled consensus of £2.24bn, and said National Grid reaffirmed its medium‑term outlook targeting 6%–8% compounded annual growth in underlying EPS from the 2024–25 baseline. [18]
FY2025/26 investment and balance sheet direction
In its half-year results statement, National Grid said overall group capital investment for continuing operations in 2025/26 is expected to be over £11 billion, with asset growth expected around 11% (normalised for disposals). It also said net debt is expected to increase by around £1.5bn from £41.4bn (as at 31 March 2025), with regulatory gearing expected to be around 60%. [19]
That’s the classic regulated-utility trade-off:
- More investment → bigger regulated asset base over time
- But often more debt issuance in the near term (and more sensitivity to financing conditions)
Analyst forecasts: price targets, ratings, and what “consensus” really means
Analyst expectations vary by data vendor (different broker universes, update lags, and methodologies), but the broad picture for NG. is a cluster of targets around the low‑to‑mid 1,200p range.
Here’s what several widely used sources show:
- MarketBeat: average 12‑month target 1,225p (based on 2 analysts), implying high‑single‑digit upside from 1,118.5p. [20]
- TipRanks: average 12‑month target ~1,211.9p. [21]
- ValueInvesting.io: average forecast ~1,220.28p, with a published range of roughly 1,080.7p to 1,365.0p and a “BUY” consensus shown there. [22]
- Investing.com: lists an average target around 1,187.8p (with a high of 1,300p and low of 1,070p) and a “Buy” consensus based on the analyst mix it tracks. [23]
Broker-by-broker snippets reported on a UK markets site show, for example, JP Morgan Cazenove reiterating an Overweight view and moving a target from 1,225p to 1,250p (dated 5 Dec 2025), alongside a Barclays Overweight entry with a 1,200p target (dated 16 Oct 2025). [24]
A useful “reality check” from National Grid itself: company-collected analyst consensus
National Grid published a one-page “H1 2025/26 Analyst Consensus” snapshot (based on analyst estimates as of 23 October 2025) showing, among other items:
- Earnings per share (p): 28.2
- Dividend per share (p): 16.3
- Closing net debt: (£43,489m) (figure shown in the consensus table)
This doesn’t give a price target, but it’s a grounded view of what analysts were modelling for the half-year at that time. [25]
ADR coverage note (for US-market readers)
For the US-listed ADR (NGG), Investing.com shows an average 12‑month target around $79.08 (4 analysts), with an example entry showing Morgan Stanley initiating “Buy” coverage with an $85.50 target dated 12 Dec 2025. [26]
Technical snapshot: levels traders are watching (no crystal balls, just maths)
With a “slow and steady” name like National Grid, technical analysis is usually about levels, not fireworks.
Based on recent trading data:
- Near-term support: ~1,110p (recent intraday low area). [27]
- Near-term resistance: ~1,160p (recent early-December high). [28]
- Bigger ceiling: ~1,183p (52‑week high zone). [29]
If the stock pushes and holds above the 1,160p area, the market often treats that as “regulatory uncertainty absorbed.” If it breaks below 1,110p, traders may start talking about a deeper pullback—especially if yields rise.
The week ahead: what could move National Grid stock next week (15–19 December 2025)
National Grid doesn’t have a scheduled earnings event next week, so the key drivers are likely macro rates and UK policy headlines—both of which can move utilities fast because they change discount rates and sentiment.
1) Bank of England decision (Thursday, 18 December)
The Bank of England’s official calendar shows the next MPC decision is due 18 December 2025. [30]
A Reuters poll published 11 December reported expectations for a cut to 3.75% on that date (per the poll summary). Whether the BoE confirms, surprises, or signals caution could move gilt yields—and by extension, defensive dividend names. [31]
2) UK inflation data (Wednesday, 17 December)
ONS confirms the next UK inflation release is 17 December 2025. [32]
Inflation surprises can matter for National Grid because they influence:
- rate expectations (discount rate),
- and, more indirectly, the regulatory conversation around consumer bill impacts.
3) UK labour market data (Tuesday, 16 December)
ONS lists labour market releases scheduled for 16 December 2025. [33]
4) UK retail sales (Friday, 19 December)
ONS schedules “Retail Sales; Great Britain: November 2025” for 19 December 2025 (7:00am). [34]
Retail sales aren’t about National Grid directly—but the macro growth pulse influences policy tone, rates, and defensive sector flows.
5) More headlines on grid reform implementation
NESO said it would begin informing customers about their status in the new delivery pipeline as reforms roll out. That process can generate follow-on headlines—particularly around which projects advance or are culled. [35]
Key risks to keep on the radar
Even “boring” utilities have sharp edges:
- Regulatory risk: RIIO‑T3 details on incentives and cost recovery still need to be judged “investable,” and the market will react to any hints of appeals or further disputes. [36]
- Financing and debt trajectory: management has guided to rising investment and higher net debt; higher-for-longer rates would be a headwind. [37]
- Execution and delivery risk: the UK is demanding faster build-out; supply chain constraints and planning bottlenecks are real-world friction that can spill into allowed returns and penalties over time. [38]
- Political optics: Ofgem itself is flagging bill impacts from network investment, even as it argues the long-run economics are favourable. [39]
Bottom line: National Grid’s setup into next week
National Grid goes into the week ahead with a familiar investment proposition—regulated cash flows + large capex + a meaningful dividend—but with unusually heavy UK policy momentum behind the grid build-out story.
- The Ofgem RIIO‑T3 Final Determination is a big anchor point for longer-term valuation. [40]
- The connections reform push is a structural tailwind for the UK energy transition, but it also raises performance expectations for network operators. [41]
- Analyst targets broadly cluster around the low‑1,200p range, implying single‑digit upside from current levels—before factoring in dividends. [42]
Next week, the market’s main “dial” for NG. is likely the Bank of England (and anything that moves gilt yields), plus any fresh headlines as NESO/Ofgem reforms shift from announcement to execution. [43]
References
1. www.hl.co.uk, 2. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 3. markets.investorschronicle.co.uk, 4. www.investegate.co.uk, 5. www.investegate.co.uk, 6. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 7. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 8. www.neso.energy, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.hl.co.uk, 16. www.investegate.co.uk, 17. www.nationalgrid.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.nationalgrid.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. valueinvesting.io, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.lse.co.uk, 25. www.nationalgrid.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.hl.co.uk, 28. markets.investorschronicle.co.uk, 29. www.hl.co.uk, 30. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.ons.gov.uk, 33. www.ons.gov.uk, 34. www.ons.gov.uk, 35. www.neso.energy, 36. www.investegate.co.uk, 37. www.nationalgrid.com, 38. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 39. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 40. www.investegate.co.uk, 41. www.ofgem.gov.uk, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.bankofengland.co.uk
