National Grid plc (LON: NG) heads into year‑end 2025 balancing three big themes that matter for shareholders: a massive UK grid build‑out, an active portfolio reshaping, and a still‑solid dividend stream – all against a backdrop of tight regulation and high leverage.
As of the morning of 11 December 2025, the National Grid share price is trading a little above £11, modestly below recent highs but still up strongly for the year, while fresh news on new Sea Link contracts, Ofgem’s RIIO‑T3 settlement and a looming scrip‑dividend deadline is giving investors plenty to digest. [1]
National Grid share price and recent performance
Real‑time quotes show National Grid at about 1,108.75p on 11 December 2025, down roughly 0.7% on the day. Year‑to‑date, the stock remains up around 17% in 2025. [2]
On a trailing 52‑week basis, technical data put the high near 1,184p and the low around 910p, with a market capitalisation of roughly £55 billion. [3]
Short‑term momentum has cooled:
- The share price closed at 1,117p on 10 December, falling in six of the last ten sessions and slipping around 1.5% over that period. [4]
- A technical model from StockInvest now labels NG.L a short‑term “sell candidate”, noting negative signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages and a recent pivot‑top pattern. [5]
Yet volatility remains low, with typical daily moves of around 1% and a beta of about 0.25, meaning National Grid trades much more gently than the wider equity market – unsurprising for a regulated utility. [6]
Sea Link: new contracts and what they mean for NG stock
The headline company news today (11 December 2025) is National Grid’s announcement that it has signed two major contracts for the Sea Link project, part of its flagship “Great Grid Upgrade” in the UK. [7]
Key points from the Sea Link press release: [8]
- Project scope: Sea Link is a proposed 140 km subsea electricity connection linking Kent and Suffolk, designed to move more offshore wind and other low‑carbon power to where it’s needed.
- Key partners:
- Siemens Energy will build the converter stations.
- Sumitomo Electric Industries will supply the high‑voltage direct current (HVDC) cable.
- Industrial strategy angle:
- The project is framed as part of a broader manufacturing and skills push; the Great Grid Upgrade aims to support up to 55,000 jobs nationally across construction, engineering and the supply chain.
- Sumitomo is investing £350 million in a new HVDC cable factory at the Port of Nigg in Scotland, expected to create around 150 skilled jobs and bring high‑voltage cable manufacturing back to the UK after more than 20 years.
For equity investors, Sea Link is important less for the single project margin and more for what it signals:
- It underscores the scale and visibility of National Grid’s UK transmission capital expenditure pipeline over the next decade.
- It strengthens the argument that NG’s earnings base will increasingly be dominated by regulated grid projects aligned with UK net‑zero policy – but also ties the company even more tightly to regulatory decisions and delivery risk.
The company stresses that the contract awards do not prejudge planning consent, with the Sea Link development consent application still under examination by the UK Planning Inspectorate. [9]
Regulation: RIIO‑T3 and Ofgem’s £28 billion grid plan
The other big structural development for National Grid this month is the RIIO‑T3 Final Determination for its UK electricity transmission business, covering April 2026 to March 2031. Ofgem published the decision on 4 December 2025; National Grid has issued a cautious response and is “reviewing the detail”. [10]
What Ofgem decided
According to National Grid’s own summary of the Final Determination: [11]
- The regulator confirmed an allowed cost of equity of 6.12% (real, CPIH‑based) at 60% notional gearing for National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET).
- The framework sets out the revenue building blocks and incentives that will determine how much of the Great Grid Upgrade spending can earn a regulated return.
- National Grid plans to publish its formal response in early March 2026, after Ofgem consults on licence modifications.
In parallel, Ofgem unveiled a much‑trailed £28 billion upfront funding package for UK grid operators, with total electricity and gas network investment expected to reach roughly £90 billion by 2031. Bloomberg analysis suggests this would add around £108 per year to the average UK household’s network charges, even as the government promises to cut bills overall. [12]
For NG shareholders, the message is mixed:
- Positive: Regulatory clarity plus a huge capex envelope should support long‑duration, inflation‑linked asset growth.
- Challenging: Ofgem’s job is to hold down customer bills, so allowed returns can be squeezed, especially in a high‑interest‑rate world. National Grid’s leverage amplifies this sensitivity. [13]
The equity story from here turns heavily on whether RIIO‑T3 cashflows, plus allowed returns on strategic infrastructure projects like Sea Link, are generous enough to justify ongoing high capex and a sizeable dividend.
Portfolio reshaping: LNG and renewables sales
National Grid is also mid‑way through a significant portfolio clean‑up: moving out of more merchant or non‑core assets and doubling down on regulated networks.
Sale of Grain LNG
On 28 November 2025, Centrica and Energy Capital Partners (ECP) completed their acquisition of Grain LNG (Isle of Grain terminal) and related Thamesport assets from National Grid. [14]
- The deal values the business at an enterprise value of about £1.5 billion. [15]
- The structure includes roughly £1.1 billion of new non‑recourse project finance debt, leaving Centrica’s 50% equity cheque at around £200 million; National Grid receives the sale proceeds at the asset level. [16]
This transaction monetises a sizeable but non‑core midstream asset and helps free up capital to support the regulated grid investment plan.
Sale of National Grid Renewables
Earlier in 2025, National Grid agreed to sell its U.S. onshore renewables arm, National Grid Renewables, to Brookfield Asset Management. [17]
- The deal implies an enterprise value of around $1.73–1.74 billion, with roughly 3 GW of solar, wind and storage projects operating or under construction. [18]
- National Grid has explicitly framed the transaction as part of a strategy to “focus on networks and streamline its business”. [19]
Taken together, the LNG and renewables disposals shift NG’s portfolio away from commodity‑exposed assets and toward regulated wires and pipes – but they also reduce direct exposure to faster‑growing renewables, leaving NG more of a “pure‑play grid” story.
AI‑powered wildfire risk: a new layer of resilience
On 2 December 2025, National Grid’s US arm announced a collaboration with climate‑tech start‑up Rhizome to deploy its AI‑powered gridFIRM platform across electric transmission and distribution networks in Massachusetts, New York and parts of the UK. [20]
According to National Grid’s release, the gridFIRM system will help the company: [21]
- Identify high‑risk areas where grid assets could spark wildfires.
- Quantify and prioritise wildfire risks across the network.
- Develop cost‑effective, multi‑value prevention strategies that balance safety, reliability and affordability.
Wildfire risk has historically been seen as a Western US problem, but data cited by National Grid show New York and Massachusetts experienced over 2,600 wildfires in 2024, more than double the prior year. [22]
For investors, this matters in two ways:
- It’s a forward‑looking risk‑management move in a world where wildfire liabilities have crippled some North American utilities.
- It reinforces the company’s narrative that it can justify higher allowed returns by demonstrating sophisticated resilience planning and reduced downside risk.
Dividends, scrip election and the income case
National Grid remains a dividend‑led investment for many shareholders, and the next dividend decision point actually lands today.
Interim dividend and scrip deadline (11 December 2025)
For the 2025/26 financial year, National Grid has declared an interim ordinary dividend of 16.35p per share: [23]
- Announcement date: 6 November 2025
- Ex‑dividend date (ordinary shares): 20 November 2025
- Record date: 21 November 2025
- Payment date: 13 January 2026
- Amount: 16.35p per share
Shareholders can opt into a scrip dividend alternative, taking shares instead of cash. The scrip reference price has been set at 1,130.40p, and 11 December 2025 (5:00pm GMT) is the scrip election deadline for ordinary shareholders – a key date for those planning to reinvest dividends tax‑efficiently. [24]
Yield and payout
Dividend tracking services and analysts estimate that: [25]
- National Grid typically pays two ordinary dividends per year (interim and final).
- The trailing 12‑month dividend is around 58–59p per share, implying a current yield of roughly 4.1–4.2% at today’s share price.
- Dividend cover is about 1.2x earnings, and the payout ratio is often put in the ~78–81% range, depending on metric.
DirectorsTalk’s recent stock analysis pegs the dividend yield at 4.16% with a payout ratio of 78.26%, and flags that while this appeals to income‑seekers, negative free cash flow and high capex raise questions around long‑term sustainability if conditions worsen. [26]
Simply Wall St similarly notes a current yield of about 4.2% for the ADRs (NYSE: NGG) and concludes that the dividend remains “well covered by earnings” on their base case, though buyback activity is modest. [27]
What analysts are saying: price targets and growth forecasts
Sell‑side and data‑provider views on National Grid are not perfectly aligned, but they cluster around a moderately bullish stance.
Consensus ratings and price targets
Different platforms report slightly different analyst universes:
- ValueInvesting.io aggregates 24 analyst ratings, showing a consensus “BUY” with: [28]
- 0 strong sells, 1 sell, 6 hold, 11 buy, 6 strong buy
- Average 12‑month price target: 1,220.28p, implying about 9.3% upside from 1,117p
- Target range: 1,080.7p – 1,365p
- MarketBeat looks at a smaller subset of 2 recent Wall Street analysts and also reports a “Buy” consensus with: [29]
- Average target: 1,225p
- High: 1,250p, Low: 1,200p
- Implied upside: roughly 9.7% versus 1,117p
- MarketScreener, which tracks a broader European broker set, shows a mean consensus of “OUTPERFORM” from 15 analysts, with: [30]
- Average target price: £11.86
- Last close: £11.17
- Implied upside: about 6.2%
DirectorsTalk cites its own blend of broker data, indicating 9 buy, 5 hold and 1 sell rating, with an average target of 1,181.8p, about 4.2% above recent levels. [31]
Taken together, the market’s message is: low‑double‑digit upside potential, in line with the stock’s yield and growth profile, but no dramatic re‑rating expected under current assumptions.
Revenue and earnings forecasts
ValueInvesting’s aggregated forecasts for NG.L suggest: [32]
- Revenue this year: around £18.1 billion, down 1.3% from roughly £18.4bn.
- Revenue next year: about £20.2 billion, up 11.5% year‑on‑year as new investments ramp.
- EPS this year:0.78 (up 34% vs 0.58).
- EPS next year:0.89 (up 13.5% vs 0.78).
MarketBeat’s pros‑and‑cons snapshot notes: [33]
- Net margin around 11.5%, respectable for a capital‑intensive utility.
- Debt‑to‑equity at roughly 158% and a current ratio below 1, underlining that National Grid is highly leveraged and relies on continued market and regulatory access to funding.
Analysts broadly agree that earnings growth will be driven by regulated asset expansion rather than price spikes or trading windfalls, and that the share price already reflects much of this growth but still leaves some room for upside if delivery goes smoothly.
Short‑term technical picture: cautious tone despite positive trend
From a technical‑analysis standpoint, some signals have turned more cautious:
- DirectorsTalk notes that the 50‑day moving average (c. 1,132p) sits slightly above the current price, while the 200‑day is around 1,060p, indicating NG is still trading above its long‑term trend, but has recently rolled over against the shorter average. [34]
- StockInvest’s model highlights a pivot‑top on 13 November 2025, after which the stock has fallen about 5.5%, and currently flags a sell rating for the next “days or weeks”, even though its three‑month statistical projection still points to a possible 11% rise, with a 90% probability band between roughly 1,243p and 1,356p. [35]
In other words, long‑term trend: still up; near‑term momentum: consolidating to slightly negative.
Key risks for National Grid investors
Even with a reassuring dividend and visible capex pipeline, there are material risks that equity investors should weigh:
- Regulatory risk
- RIIO‑T3 terms, and future US rate‑case outcomes, will determine whether NG earns adequate returns on its huge investment plans. A more aggressive push by regulators to curb bills could compress allowed returns further. [36]
- Leverage and interest‑rate sensitivity
- With debt‑to‑equity north of 150% and a current ratio under 1, National Grid is structurally reliant on cheap, accessible debt markets. Sustained higher real rates would squeeze both equity valuations and the economics of new projects. [37]
- Execution risk on mega‑projects
- Sea Link and the broader Great Grid Upgrade require complex multi‑year delivery. Delays, cost overruns or planning setbacks could hit returns and erode investor confidence. [38]
- Climate and operational risk
- Wildfire risk in the US Northeast and climate‑related extremes elsewhere add a tail‑risk profile that utilities are still learning to price. NG’s AI‑driven wildfire initiative is a proactive move, but it can’t eliminate the underlying hazard. [39]
- Political risk
- In both the UK and US, energy bills and infrastructure charges are politically sensitive. Shifts in government policy, windfall taxes or tougher decarbonisation mandates could alter the risk‑reward balance for shareholders.
Bottom line: where National Grid stock stands on 11 December 2025
As of 11 December 2025, National Grid plc sits at an interesting intersection:
- Fundamentals: A regulated, low‑beta utility with a multi‑decade growth runway in electrification and grid reinforcement, but with high leverage and negative free cash flow as capex surges. [40]
- Valuation: Trading near the middle of its 52‑week range, with the market assigning mid‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit upside on most sell‑side models – not a screaming bargain, but not priced for perfection either. [41]
- Income: A 4%‑plus dividend yield with a long history of steady growth, supported by scrip options but constrained by leverage and capital needs. [42]
- Newsflow: Positive strategic headlines – Sea Link contracts, AI‑driven wildfire risk tools, completion of the Grain LNG sale and the ongoing renewables divestment – all reinforce the narrative of a leaner, network‑focused utility aligned with net‑zero build‑out. [43]
For investors, National Grid today looks like what it has quietly been evolving into for years: a long‑duration, infrastructure‑heavy income stock, where returns will be decided less by market cycles and more by regulation, execution, and how well management turns a once‑in‑a‑generation grid upgrade into sustainable earnings growth.
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. stockinvest.us, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.nationalgrid.com, 8. www.nationalgrid.com, 9. www.nationalgrid.com, 10. www.nationalgrid.com, 11. www.nationalgrid.com, 12. www.bloomberg.com, 13. www.nationalgrid.com, 14. www.centrica.com, 15. www.lngindustry.com, 16. www.centrica.com, 17. www.nationalgrid.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.nationalgrid.com, 20. www.nationalgridus.com, 21. www.nationalgridus.com, 22. www.nationalgridus.com, 23. www.nationalgrid.com, 24. www.nationalgrid.com, 25. www.dividendmax.com, 26. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 27. simplywall.st, 28. valueinvesting.io, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketscreener.com, 31. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 32. valueinvesting.io, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 35. stockinvest.us, 36. www.nationalgrid.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. www.nationalgrid.com, 39. www.nationalgridus.com, 40. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 41. valueinvesting.io, 42. www.dividendmax.com, 43. www.nationalgrid.com
