In the first week of December 2025, January 2026 Henry Hub natural gas futures (NGF26) punched decisively through the psychologically important $5.00/MMBtu level, closing around $5.29 on Friday, 5 December, while the front‑month continuous contract touched roughly $5.34 — the highest levels since late 2022. [1]
The move capped a stunning rally: U.S. natural gas futures are up about 65% from mid‑October lows and roughly 70% year‑on‑year, with the Jan ’26 contract alone gaining more than 18% over the past month and trading near the top of its 52‑week range. [2]
At the same time, global benchmarks are telling a split story. U.S. prices have surged on an Arctic blast and strong export demand, while European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures have slipped below €30/MWh as full storage and ample LNG arrivals keep the continent well supplied. [3]
Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analyses around Natural Gas Jan ’26 commodities between 5–7 December 2025, and what they may mean for traders, utilities and end‑users.
Jan ’26 Henry Hub Futures: Three‑Year Highs and a Steep Rally
Data from futures platforms show the January 2026 Henry Hub contract (NGF26) settling near $5.29/MMBtu on Friday, 5 December, up about 4.5% on the day and close to an intraday high near $5.50. Over the past month, NGF26 has climbed from a low around $4.39 (25 November) to a high near $5.50 (5 December), a gain of about 18–20%. [4]
The front‑month continuous contract (NG00) finished Friday near $5.34/MMBtu, solidifying a 35‑month high for U.S. natural gas futures and marking the strongest weekly close since early December 2022. [5]
Key points about the current futures structure:
- $5 is now a floor, not a ceiling — for the moment. Analysts at EBW Analytics note that the $5.00 level remains a powerful psychological driver, with the January contract briefly trading above $5.03 before settling just under $5 in early December, then breaking convincingly higher later in the week. [6]
- The entire 2026 curve has shifted up. Analysis on Investing.com highlights that January 2026 futures are trading roughly 28–32% above the same contract a year ago, and that much of the 2026 strip now sits above the upper end of its 15‑year interquartile range, with 2026 prices trading $0.40–$0.70/MMBtu higher than 2027 for many months. [7]
- Volatility is back. Over the past 12 months, natural gas futures have swung in a 2.62–5.50/MMBtu range, with the rolling contract up about 72% year‑on‑year, underscoring just how quickly sentiment has flipped since mid‑year price lows. [8]
For traders focused on Natural Gas Jan ’26, this week’s price action has transformed the contract from a quiet winter hedge into one of the most closely watched energy instruments globally.
Weather Shock: Arctic Blast Supercharges Early‑Season Heating Demand
The immediate catalyst for the breakout is straightforward: weather.
A powerful Arctic blast has driven temperatures 20°F below normal across much of the central and northeastern United States, setting new record lows from Iowa and Michigan through New York and parts of New England. The U.S. Weather Prediction Center attributes the event to a polar vortex disruption funneling frigid Canadian air deep into the continental U.S., with sub‑freezing conditions expected to persist well into mid‑December. [9]
Barchart’s natural gas commentary notes that this cold pattern, combined with forecasts from meteorologist Atmospheric G2, is calling for “significantly colder‑than‑normal” conditions across the eastern half of the U.S. from 10–14 December, with cold risks continuing into the following week — a direct bullish input for NGF26. [10]
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that:
- Henry Hub spot prices rose from $4.59 to $4.87/MMBtu in the week ending 3 December.
- January 2026 NYMEX futures climbed from $4.558 to $4.995/MMBtu over the same period, setting new highs compared with any point since December 2022 even before the latest surge above $5. [11]
Spot prices in constrained markets like New England have seen even more explosive moves. At Boston’s Algonquin Citygate, day‑ahead prices spiked from $8.08 to $25.00/MMBtu during the week ending 3 December — the highest since January 2025 — reflecting both weather and limited pipeline capacity into the region. [12]
In short, the Jan ’26 futures contract is now pricing in:
- A colder‑than‑usual December, with more heating‑degree days than earlier forecasts implied. [13]
- Elevated regional basis risk, particularly in the Northeast, where pipeline constraints magnify price spikes during extreme cold.
LNG Exports and Global Spreads: Tight U.S., Softer Europe
Weather alone doesn’t explain the scale of the move. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and changing global price spreads are the other big story of early December.
According to the latest EIA Weekly Update, LNG terminals sent out 37 cargoes totaling about 138 Bcf between 27 November and 3 December, equivalent to roughly 19–20 Bcf/d of export capacity. [14]
A Reuters analysis published on 4 December notes that:
- Henry Hub prices have climbed above $5/MMBtu,
- While European TTF and Asian LNG benchmarks have weakened,
- Narrowing the TTF–Henry Hub spread to around $4.70/MMBtu, the tightest margin since 2021 and a potential headwind for U.S. exporters if it narrows further. [15]
Even so, spreads remain large enough to keep U.S. export plants running near capacity for now, and LNG flows are still viewed as supportive of U.S. prices.
On the other side of the Atlantic, European gas markets look relatively comfortable:
- TradingEconomics data show Dutch TTF futures around €27–28/MWh on 5 December, down about 13–14% over the past month and more than 40% year‑on‑year as robust storage and steady LNG imports cap prices. [16]
- European press reports highlight that TTF briefly fell below €28/MWh, touching the lowest level since April 2024, amid expectations of continued ample supply despite colder weather. [17]
This divergence — tightening U.S. market vs. easing Europe — is central to the Jan ’26 narrative:
- In the near term, strong U.S. exports plus cold weather tighten domestic balances and lift futures.
- Globally, softer European and Asian prices limit how far U.S. prices can decouple before LNG margins become too thin and export volumes face pressure. [18]
Fundamentals: Record Production, Above‑Average Storage, and Coal Switching
Despite the price spike, the U.S. gas system is not starting winter from a position of shortage.
Production and storage
Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) and the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) project:
- Record U.S. dry gas production of about 108.5 Bcf/d this winter, roughly 4 Bcf/d higher year‑on‑year.
- Starting storage near 3.9 Tcf, slightly above the five‑year average, and an expected end‑of‑winter level around 2.1 Tcf if normal weather plays out. [19]
EIA’s latest data broadly confirm this comfortable starting point:
- Working gas in storage stands at 3,923 Bcf, about 5% above the five‑year average and only slightly below last year’s level at the same time.
- The latest weekly draw of 12 Bcf is well below the five‑year average withdrawal of 43 Bcf for late November, reflecting how warm November had been before the December cold hit. [20]
Coal switching and emissions
The downside of higher gas prices is already visible in the power sector. A Reuters column on 3 December notes that as U.S. natural gas prices approach three‑year highs, some utilities are increasing coal burn again to control costs:
- Coal‑fired generation jumped roughly 21% earlier in 2025 when gas prices spiked, and a similar trend is emerging as prices move above $5/MMBtu.
- Coal emits around 75% more CO₂ per kilowatt‑hour than natural gas, so this price‑driven switching is raising concerns about emissions heading into 2026. [21]
From a fundamental standpoint, the picture is nuanced:
- Supply is strong and storage is above normal, which argues against sustained shortages. [22]
- But weather‑driven demand, exports and coal switching are tightening balances enough to justify higher prices in the near term — especially if December and January stay significantly colder than average.
Analyst Commentary and Short‑Term Forecasts (5–7 December)
The 5–7 December news flow has been dominated by three themes: the $5 breakout, technical over‑extension, and the risk of a later‑December “reload” of cold.
1. The $5 psychological line
In a widely cited note, EBW Analytics calls the $5.00 level a “psychological threshold” that remains a key market driver. Their analysts highlight:
- Jan ’26 futures testing $5.03 intraday and closing around $4.995 earlier in the week before the latest breakout.
- Expectations for a “test‑higher‑and‑relent” pattern over the next 7–10 days, followed by a “volatile path higher” over 30–45 days. [23]
EBW also warns that although storage currently sits in surplus relative to the five‑year average, forecasts for the coldest December since 2010 could flip stocks into a deficit by Christmas, with a “triple‑digit” (100+ Bcf) deficit possible early in 2026. [24]
2. Technical targets: $5.34–$5.50 resistance
Several market technicians now point to $5.34–$5.50/MMBtu as near‑term resistance for front‑month natural gas:
- FXEmpire notes that natural gas spiked to about $5.50 on Friday, clearing a Fibonacci resistance zone near $5.28 and confirming a breakout above the prior $4.90–$5.00 cap, but also warns that overbought signals raise the risk of a pullback or consolidation. [25]
- IG’s market commentary similarly describes U.S. natural gas trading at three‑year highs and flags the current zone as a key level where trend followers will be watching for either continuation or reversal signals. [26]
3. “More upside” — but with volatility
Fundamental analysts remain cautiously bullish:
- A Natural Gas Intelligence piece published 6 December notes that futures holding “firmly above $5/MMBtu” have emboldened bulls, with many desks expecting further upside if cold weather persists and LNG flows stay strong. [27]
- A separate NGI report attributes the initial move above $5 to speculative buying on top of already tight fundamentals, cautioning that any shift to milder forecasts could spark sharp corrections even in an otherwise bullish market. [28]
Meanwhile, an energy newsletter from Mansfield Energy on 5 December describes natural gas prices at a three‑year high driven by LNG exports and winter risk, essentially summarizing the week’s theme: “quiet summer market, suddenly loud winter.” [29]
EIA vs. Market: Futures Outrunning Official Forecasts
One of the most striking aspects of early December’s rally is how far Jan ’26 futures have run ahead of official forecasts.
In its November Short‑Term Energy Outlook (forecast completed 6 November), EIA expected:
- Henry Hub spot prices to average $3.90/MMBtu over the November–March winter,
- Peaking at just $4.25/MMBtu in January 2026,
- With a 2026 full‑year average around $4.00/MMBtu. [30]
The futures market is now saying something quite different:
- The Jan ’26 contract is trading above $5, about $0.75–$1.00/MMBtu above EIA’s prior peak forecast. [31]
- The 12‑month strip for 2026 (Jan–Dec) is around $4.30/MMBtu, already above EIA’s projected annual average. [32]
EVA/NGSA’s independent winter outlook, released in late September, had anticipated Henry Hub averaging just above $4.00/MMBtu this winter on record production and strong LNG flows — still well below current futures levels. [33]
Taken together, this tells us that weather and sentiment have shifted more bullish than models and agencies expected, at least for now. If December’s cold persists and January turns out colder than normal, EIA’s upcoming December 9 STEO update may well revise those numbers upward.
Structural Drivers: LNG Build‑Out, EU Policy and Data Centers
Beyond the immediate winter, several structural themes feeding into Jan ’26 pricing gained fresh attention in early December.
LNG capacity growth
Recent news highlights a multi‑year expansion in LNG infrastructure:
- In Australia, Chevron and partners approved a $3 billion Stage 3 expansion of the Gorgon project, adding new offshore wells and subsea tiebacks to support both LNG exports and domestic gas supply into the late 2060s. [34]
- In North America, projects like Plaquemines LNG and Golden Pass are poised to lift U.S. LNG export capacity, with EIA projecting U.S. LNG exports to rise from about 15 Bcf/d this year to 16 Bcf/d in 2026, and private forecasters seeing even higher long‑term levels. [35]
These expansions support the idea that global gas will remain structurally tighter, especially as the European Union moves to phase out remaining Russian gas imports by 2027, with LNG imports from alternative suppliers — notably the U.S. — expected to fill much of the gap. [36]
Data center and industrial demand
Investors are increasingly focused on “new demand” stories:
- An Investors.com profile of Expand Energy (the merged Chesapeake–Southwestern gas producer) describes the current environment as the “golden age of natural gas,” noting that natural gas prices above $5 and rising LNG plus AI data‑center demand underpin the company’s bullish outlook through 2029. [37]
- EVA/NGSA’s winter outlook projects U.S. data‑center capacity rising from ~30 GW in 2024 to over 41 GW by 2027, with states like Virginia and Texas seeing strong growth — a trend that indirectly lifts gas demand via the power sector. [38]
Infrastructure players are responding: midstream firms such as Targa are investing in new pipelines to move record Permian gas volumes to Gulf Coast export and industrial hubs, reinforcing the view that gas demand growth is not just a winter story anymore. [39]
What It Means for Jan ’26 Traders, Utilities and End‑Users
For market participants watching Natural Gas Jan ’26 commodities, the 5–7 December news window suggests several key implications:
- Weather is in the driver’s seat — for now.
The rally is heavily weather‑centric, anchored in an Arctic blast and projections for an unusually cold December. Any shift toward milder late‑December/January patterns could trigger sharp pullbacks even if the overall trend remains up. - Fundamentals are tight, not desperate.
Storage remains above the five‑year average and production is at record levels, but high LNG exports, regional constraints and potential coal switching are tightening balances enough to justify a risk premium. [40] - Futures are out ahead of agency forecasts.
With Jan ’26 already above $5 and the 2026 strip in the low $4s, the market is pricing a colder, tighter scenario than EIA’s November STEO envisioned. Future revisions to official forecasts could either validate or challenge current pricing, depending on how winter evolves. [41] - Global LNG dynamics will cap extremes.
Weakening TTF and Asian benchmarks are compressing the arbitrage. If Henry Hub runs too far above global prices, LNG margins will narrow and exports could eventually soften, limiting further upside. [42] - Structural demand looks bullish beyond this winter.
LNG build‑out, EU gas policy, and rising data‑center loads all point to robust medium‑term demand for U.S. gas, even if individual winters fluctuate. That’s one reason the entire 2026 curve is trading at a premium to 2027. [43]
Key Levels to Watch on Natural Gas Jan ’26
Based on this week’s commentary, traders are watching several technical and fundamental signposts:
- Support zone: ~$5.00–$5.05/MMBtu — the former resistance now acting as psychological support. [44]
- Near‑term resistance: ~$5.34–$5.50/MMBtu — recent highs flagged by multiple technical analysts; a clean break and weekly close above this band would confirm a more aggressive breakout. [45]
- Weather & storage: NOAA projections and subsequent EIA weekly storage reports through late December will be crucial, especially if draws begin to track significantly tighter than the five‑year average, validating EBW’s projected shift from surplus to deficit. [46]
- Global spreads: The TTF–Henry Hub and JKM–Henry Hub spreads, and any sign that LNG plants are curbing output due to margin pressure, will act as a natural governor on U.S. price upside. [47]
Bottom line:
Between 5 and 7 December 2025, Natural Gas Jan ’26 futures have moved into a new price regime, trading firmly above $5 on the back of an Arctic blast, strong LNG exports and rising structural demand — even as storage remains above average and global benchmarks outside the U.S. soften. The consensus across fresh forecasts and analyses is cautiously bullish: more upside is possible, but in classic natural‑gas fashion, the path is likely to be sharp, volatile and highly weather‑dependent.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade any security or commodity.
References
1. www.barchart.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. tradingeconomics.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.rigzone.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. www.eia.gov, 12. www.eia.gov, 13. www.rigzone.com, 14. www.eia.gov, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. tradingeconomics.com, 17. www.euronews.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.evainc.com, 20. www.eia.gov, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.eia.gov, 23. www.rigzone.com, 24. www.rigzone.com, 25. www.fxempire.com, 26. www.ig.com, 27. naturalgasintel.com, 28. naturalgasintel.com, 29. mansfield.energy, 30. www.eia.gov, 31. www.barchart.com, 32. www.eia.gov, 33. www.evainc.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.eia.gov, 36. www.wsj.com, 37. www.investors.com, 38. www.evainc.com, 39. www.houstonchronicle.com, 40. www.eia.gov, 41. www.eia.gov, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.wsj.com, 44. www.rigzone.com, 45. www.fxempire.com, 46. www.eia.gov, 47. www.reuters.com
