New York, Jan 24, 2026, 12:08 (ET) — Market closed.
- February Henry Hub futures closed Friday at $5.275/mmBtu, following volatile moves throughout the day
- Traders are zeroing in on Winter Storm Fern, freeze-offs, and demand early next week
- The upcoming U.S. storage report on Jan. 29 will be a crucial checkpoint following this week’s surge
U.S. natural gas futures closed Friday at $5.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), marking the contract’s largest weekly jump on record since 1990. With the market closed over the weekend, traders are now debating how much of the surge was driven by weather fears and how much will be reflected in upcoming storage and production reports.
This is crucial now as the cold hits the heart of winter, a time when demand can surge suddenly, with gas still the go-to fuel for heating and power in much of the U.S. Just a few days of harsh temperatures can shift the mood from “plenty in storage” to “not enough deliverability,” particularly if wells and gathering systems freeze over.
Winter Storm Fern is set to bring heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the southern Rockies all the way to New England through Monday, according to the National Weather Service. Energy Aspects projects the storm could slash natural gas output by 86 billion cubic feet over the next two weeks, with Appalachia alone expected to lose 35 bcf. PJM also warned that the storm might push winter peak electricity load to a record high on Tuesday, Jan. 27.
Friday’s trading was choppy. The front month swung between $4.660 and $5.434 before settling at $5.275, up from a previous close of $5.045, data showed.
Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA, described natural gas as “the wild animal of the commodities space.” Tyler Richey of Sevens Report Research said the market is “clearly in a weather-driven” setup. Their report also highlighted forecasts suggesting a storage withdrawal exceeding 350 bcf — a figure likely to force the market to adjust risk pricing once more. MarketWatch
The latest government data still shows a buffer, though it predates the coldest stretch. The U.S. Energy Information Administration recorded net withdrawals of 120 bcf for the week ending Jan. 16. That left working gas in storage at 3,065 bcf—roughly 6% above the five-year average. The agency also noted this week’s “Natural Gas Weekly Update” will be its last; a new weekly storage supplement is set to launch on Jan. 29. U.S. Energy Information Administration
The risk for bulls is clear: if the forecast grows warmer and the freeze-offs fall short, supply could rebound fast. Storage levels remain above normal, so even a modest demand miss could send prices tumbling after this rally.
Traders are zeroing in on a few key signals: early-week weather updates, signs of production halts as the storm hits major basins, and Thursday’s Jan. 29 storage report. That report will either confirm the recent rally or serve as a much-needed reality check after prices surged too quickly over the past week.
