Natural Gas Market Update (Dec. 20, 2025): Henry Hub Volatility, Europe’s TTF Moves, LNG Prices and 2026 Forecasts

December 20, 2025 — Natural gas markets are closing out the week with a familiar winter tug-of-war: weather forecasts softening near-term heating demand, while LNG export pull and policy shifts keep longer-term supply anxiety alive. Friday’s last traded levels (with weekend markets largely closed) show a market that’s no longer panicking about immediate shortages—but also not comfortable enough to price in a smooth ride through 2026.

Below is a comprehensive roundup of the key natural gas news, forecasts, and analyses in circulation on 20.12.2025, spanning the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark, Europe’s TTF, and global LNG pricing—plus what major outlooks imply for 2026. ^[1]

Key takeaways driving natural gas prices right now

U.S. natural gas futures swung sharply as warmer weather outlooks through early January weighed on heating demand, even as LNG feedgas flows stayed near record highs. ^[2]
Europe’s gas market is balancing lower-than-last-year storage against a strong LNG inflow backdrop, while wind generation volatility continues to move day-to-day pricing. ^[3]
Asian spot LNG prices slid to around a 20‑month low as demand stayed muted and supply remained ample—an important signal for where “global clearing prices” may sit as new LNG capacity ramps up. ^[4]
For 2026, forecasts diverge—but the debate is clear: LNG export growth vs. production response will decide whether Henry Hub settles closer to $4… or pushes toward $5. ^[5]

U.S. natural gas prices: Henry Hub ends the week whipsawing

The U.S. benchmark (NYMEX) January Henry Hub contract ended Friday’s session higher at $3.984/MMBtu, with Reuters noting the move was supported by near-record LNG export flows even as the broader weather narrative stayed bearish. ^[6]

But the session’s headline was volatility. Another Reuters update circulating on Dec. 20 described futures easing toward a seven-week low near $3.879/MMBtu as forecasts turned warmer—before prices later firmed into the close. ^[7]

That intraday push-pull matters because it reveals what traders are currently pricing:

Warmth (bearish): Meteorologists’ outlooks showed much of the U.S. warmer than normal through Jan. 3, typically reducing residential and commercial heating demand. ^[8]
Exports (bullish): Feedgas flows to the eight major U.S. LNG plants averaged ~18.5 Bcf/d so far in December, above November’s prior record pace, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. ^[9]
Output (bearish): Lower 48 production has been holding around 109.6 Bcf/d, matching November’s record-high monthly average, again per LSEG figures cited by Reuters. ^[10]

Storage and the “widow-maker” spread are flashing a comfort signal

One of the most telling signals right now isn’t the front-month contract—it’s the shape of the curve.

Reuters reporting highlighted that the March–April 2026 premium (a spread traders watch to express late-winter risk) was trading at an ultra-thin ~1 cent—a record low in that update. In industry slang, this March/April position is called the “widow-maker” because violent weather-driven moves have historically wiped out leveraged bets. ^[11]

When that spread compresses, it usually implies the market is less worried about end-of-winter scarcity—at least given current information. That doesn’t mean winter can’t surprise; it does mean the curve is currently pricing more “manageable winter” than “crisis.” ^[12]

On fundamentals, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly update (released Dec. 18, covering the week ending Dec. 17) also documented a 167 Bcf net storage withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 12, leaving total working gas stocks at 3,579 Bcf—about 1% above the five-year average but 2% below year-ago levels. ^[13]

LNG is still the center of gravity—and the headlines prove it

Even on days when weather models dominate U.S. price action, the LNG complex keeps “pulling” on the balance sheet.

U.S. LNG feedgas near records despite small plant fluctuations

Reuters noted that feedgas gains came despite small flow declines at Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities in Louisiana in recent days (as described by analysts in that report). ^[14]

Meanwhile, the EIA weekly update recorded 33 LNG vessels departing U.S. ports between Dec. 11 and Dec. 17 with a combined capacity of 126 Bcf, underscoring how strong the shipping cadence has been heading into year-end. ^[15]

Major project development news: Energy Transfer pauses Lake Charles LNG

In one of the week’s most closely watched corporate signals, Energy Transfer said it was suspending development of its Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, citing capital allocation priorities toward pipelines and concerns around the economics of an increasingly crowded LNG buildout cycle. Reuters reported the proposed facility was expected to have 16.45 mtpa of liquefaction capacity. ^[16]

Why this matters for prices: a pause or cancellation doesn’t change tomorrow’s molecule flows, but it alters the market’s long-run “oversupply” assumptions—especially if it becomes a pattern rather than a one-off. ^[17]

LNG shipping rates slide, changing arbitrage math

Another “plumbing” indicator moved this week: Atlantic LNG shipping rates fell below $100,000/day. LNG Prime reported Spark’s Atlantic freight assessment at $92,000/day (down $23,750 week-on-week), with Pacific rates also lower. ^[18]

Freight doesn’t just affect shipping companies—it can widen or narrow netbacks and influence whether marginal cargoes flow toward Europe or Asia when price spreads are thin. ^[19]

Europe natural gas: TTF edges up as wind fades—while storage stays the real story

Europe’s gas market has been trading a different narrative than the U.S.: less about one country’s weather model and more about the system-wide resilience of storage, LNG inflows, and power-sector swings.

A Reuters update republished on Dec. 20 reported the Dutch TTF front-month up around €0.70 to ~€28.05/MWh, with prices supported by weaker wind power output, which can increase gas-fired generation needs. ^[20]

Europe’s storage is lower than last year—yet targets were relaxed

A widely circulated ING analysis (also dated Dec. 20) emphasized that the EU entered the 2025/26 heating season below the original 90% storage target by Nov. 1—but crucially, it also noted the Commission’s earlier move to relax storage rules, reducing the pressure to buy “at any cost.” Storage peaked around 83% in mid-October, and by early December had fallen to about 75%, below both the five-year average and last year’s ~85% at that point. ^[21]

This is the key European tension:

Lower storage increases vulnerability to cold spells or supply disruptions. ^[22]
Relaxed targets and strong LNG imports reduce “panic bidding.” ^[23]

Complementing that view, LNG Prime cited Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data showing EU storage at about 68.24% full on Dec. 17, down from 71.29% a week earlier and 77.10% on the comparable date in 2024. ^[24]

Speculators are heavily short TTF—setting up a squeeze risk

ING’s analysis flagged positioning as a risk factor: it said investment funds moved from net long 292 TWh in February to net short 50 TWh by end-November, with gross shorts at a reported record high in that dataset. The implication is straightforward: if Europe gets a true cold shock—or a major outage—short covering could amplify price spikes. ^[25]

Russian gas phase-out: Europe is legislating a long-term LNG dependence

While day-to-day prices may hinge on wind and temperature, Europe’s longer-term story is policy-driven.

On Dec. 17, Reuters reported the European Parliament approved the EU plan to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, with the agreement specifying a halt to Russian LNG imports by end‑2026 and pipeline gas by end‑September 2027 (pending final approval steps). ^[26]

This matters because it structurally increases Europe’s reliance on LNG—especially from the U.S.—even if the region continues adding renewables and trying to curb demand. ^[27]

Asia spot LNG: prices slide to a 20‑month low as demand stays soft

In global LNG, Asia is often the swing buyer. Right now, the swing looks… restrained.

A Reuters market wrap republished by Business Recorder reported spot LNG for February delivery into Northeast Asia around $9.50/MMBtu, described as roughly a 20‑month low, citing ample supply and subdued demand. ^[28]

The same update also pointed to a narrowing spread between Asia’s JKM and European pricing, with Europe’s LNG marker cited near $8.881/MMBtu in that report—tight spreads that reduce the incentive to chase the “best basin” and instead emphasize logistics, freight, and regas capacity. ^[29]

The China question is hanging over every 2026 LNG model

ING’s Dec. 20 analysis argued that China is “driving the weakness” in Asian LNG demand in 2025, citing factors including industrial softness, higher domestic production growth, and rising pipeline gas imports. ^[30]

Even if you disagree with every datapoint, the strategic point is hard to ignore: pipeline gas growth can displace LNG demand, and that changes global clearing prices when new LNG export trains arrive. ^[31]

The 2026 natural gas forecast debate: $4 or $5 for Henry Hub?

If 2025 was the year the market re-learned winter risk, 2026 is shaping up as the year of a new argument: how tight does the U.S. balance get once incremental LNG demand arrives—and how quickly does production respond?

EIA (STEO): Henry Hub averages about $4.01 in 2026

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecasts Henry Hub at $4.01/MMBtu on average in 2026, with dry natural gas production around 109.11 Bcf/d and LNG exports averaging 16.3 Bcf/d. ^[32]

EIA also projects end-of-winter (end of March 2026) storage around 2,000 Bcf, reflecting an overall balance that is tighter than the ultra-loose periods of the last decade—but not necessarily “crisis tight.” ^[33]

Bernstein: “faith in five” and a $5 equilibrium thesis

A Bernstein outlook distributed via Investing.com on Dec. 20 argued it still “has faith in five,” framing $5/mcf Henry Hub as the new equilibrium after years nearer ~$3.50. The note emphasized demand growth led by LNG exports and power generation, claiming current U.S. LNG volumes are at record levels and “around 5 Bcf/d above a year ago.” ^[34]

On supply, Bernstein highlighted producer restraint—especially in Haynesville—arguing that depressed rig activity and lags between drilling and output mean much of 2026 supply is already “set” at lower levels, while Permian horizontal rig counts were noted as down about 20% from early-2025. ^[35]

Goldman Sachs: $4.60 in 2026 for U.S. gas; €29/MWh for TTF

In a separate 2026 commodities outlook, Reuters reported Goldman forecasts U.S. natural gas at $4.60/MMBtu for 2026 (and $3.80 for 2027), while projecting TTF at €29/MWh for 2026 (and €20 for 2027). ^[36]

Even though this was published Dec. 18, it’s still part of the active “current outlook stack” being referenced in market commentary on Dec. 20. ^[37]

The global macro overlay: trade flows and geopolitics are shifting the map

Two additional developments—while not Saturday headlines—remain directly relevant to price formation as of Dec. 20:

Eastern Mediterranean supply: Reuters reported Israel approved a major gas supply deal to Egypt, describing up to $35 billion in gas supply from Leviathan to Egypt through 2040 (or until contract values are fulfilled), a flow that could influence Egypt’s LNG import needs over time. ^[38]
Asia–U.S. LNG trade: Reuters columnist Clyde Russell reported Asia’s LNG imports from the U.S. are on track to fall in 2025 (to ~19.08 million tons from ~29.78 million in 2024), with China’s U.S. LNG imports down sharply—highlighting that geopolitics and tariffs can reroute cargoes even when “global gas” looks fungible on paper. ^[39]

What to watch next: the catalysts that can still move natural gas fast

Even with the curve signaling near-term comfort, natural gas remains one of the most headline-sensitive commodities. Here are the catalysts most likely to move prices coming out of Dec. 20:

Weather model risk (U.S., Europe, Northeast Asia)
A shift from “mostly warmer than normal” to sustained cold can quickly flip demand expectations—especially in late December and January. ^[40]
LNG plant uptime and feedgas volatility
With feedgas near record territory, even “small declines” can become big narratives if they persist—or if an outage hits a major facility during a cold snap. ^[41]
Storage trajectory into late winter
The market is watching not just weekly withdrawals, but where inventories may land by March—because that determines the refill burden for summer 2026. ^[42]
Europe’s policy-driven demand for LNG
Europe’s Russian gas phase-out timeline is becoming more defined, which raises the structural LNG “call” even if spot prices remain calm. ^[43]
Positioning and potential squeezes (TTF especially)
Heavy speculative shorts can be tinder; all it takes is a spark—cold, outage, or geopolitical surprise. ^[44]

Bottom line for Dec. 20, 2025

As of 20.12.2025, the natural gas market is sending a mixed but coherent message:

Near-term: Warmth and record output are keeping U.S. prices from breaking higher, even with LNG demand humming. ^[45]
Mid-term (2026): Forecasts cluster around $4+ Henry Hub, but a credible camp is arguing for a structurally higher equilibrium closer to $5, especially if LNG growth keeps arriving faster than production responds. ^[46]
Global: Asia’s weak spot LNG prices are currently acting as a cap on global gas exuberance, while Europe’s storage and policy path keep a risk premium lurking beneath the surface. ^[47]