Natural Gas Outlook (Dec. 21, 2025): Prices Slip on Warm Forecasts as LNG Supply Plans Shift

December 21, 2025 — Natural gas markets are closing out the year with a familiar winter paradox: heating season is underway, but prices are being dragged lower by milder temperature forecasts and a supply picture that still looks comfortable in both the U.S. and Europe.

In the United States, NYMEX natural gas futures for January delivery slid to $3.879 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the latest session, touching a seven-week low as traders priced in warmer-than-normal weather into early January and continued strength in Lower 48 production. ^[1]

Globally, the soft tone is reinforced by weaker benchmark prices in Europe and Asia—reducing LNG “pull” from overseas and narrowing export margins. At the same time, major structural stories continue to reshape the longer-term outlook: Qatar-linked expansion activity moved forward with a new offshore contract, while at least one large proposed U.S. export project was paused amid cost and oversupply concerns. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at the key news, forecasts, and market analysis shaping natural gas as of Dec. 21, 2025.

Key takeaways driving natural gas today

U.S. prices: January futures ended the latest session around $3.879/mmBtu, pressured by milder weather outlooks and near-record output. ^[3]
Supply comfort signals: The closely watched March–April 2026 spread (“widow-maker”) traded near a record-low premium of ~1 cent, a sign traders aren’t pricing in major late-winter scarcity risk right now. ^[4]
Production and demand: Lower 48 output hovered around 109.6 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day) for December, while projected total demand (including exports) was expected to fall sharply over the next two weeks as warmth trims heating needs. ^[5]
LNG feedgas remains high: Flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants averaged about 18.5 bcfd so far this month—near record territory—though plant-specific fluctuations continue. ^[6]
Project signals: Energy Transfer said it is suspending development of its Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana as it prioritizes pipeline investments amid cost inflation and oversupply concerns. ^[7]
Geopolitics and regional gas: Israel approved what it described as its largest-ever gas export deal, tied to Leviathan supply to Egypt through 2040 (or until contract value is reached), underscoring how East Med gas is becoming more central to North African balances. ^[8]
Europe policy shift continues: The European Parliament approved legislation to phase out Russian gas imports—including halting Russian LNG by end‑2026 and pipeline gas by end‑September 2027—a structural bullish factor for LNG demand over time even if near-term prices are soft. ^[9]
2026 forecasts diverge: EIA expects Henry Hub to average about $4.01/mmBtu in 2026 (and around $4.30/mmBtu this winter season), while Enverus projects $3.80 through winter before softening in summer 2026; Goldman sees higher 2026 pricing in both the U.S. and Europe than current winter softness implies. ^[10]

Where U.S. natural gas prices stand—and what’s pushing them

The current U.S. move is less about a sudden collapse in fundamentals and more about a rapid repricing of winter expectations. After earlier cold-driven strength, the latest model runs shifted warmer—enough to shave expected heating demand in the critical late-December/early-January window.

Reuters-reported market data showed meteorologists expecting weather to stay mostly warmer than normal through Jan. 3, reducing the volume of gas needed for residential and commercial heating. ^[11]

At the same time, supply remains strong. Lower 48 output has been hovering near record levels (~109.6 bcfd), giving the market less reason to pay up for winter risk. ^[12]

One of the most telling indicators is the forward curve. The March–April 2026 spread—nicknamed the “widow-maker” for how violently it can move when late-winter weather swings—compressed to around a 1-cent premium, an unusually calm signal for the end of winter. ^[13]

Storage: still not tight (for now)

Storage is also helping keep a lid on panic pricing. In the same Reuters dataset, the U.S. storage position was shown close to normal—recently around 0.9% above the five-year average at the reported point in time (with totals cited around 3,579 bcf for the referenced week). ^[14]

That doesn’t mean winter is “solved.” It means the market currently believes supply + storage are adequate unless a sustained cold regime emerges.

LNG: high export flows, but global prices are softening

U.S. LNG export demand continues to be a critical support pillar. Feedgas to the eight major U.S. LNG plants averaged around 18.5 bcfd so far this month—up from a monthly record of 18.2 bcfd in November, according to Reuters-reported figures. ^[15]

However, softer global gas benchmarks are complicating the picture.

Earlier in the week, Reuters reporting noted European (TTF) and Asian (JKM) benchmarks trading near multi‑month lows, with global prices declining as the winter heating season began slowly and markets weighed prospects of improved Russia-linked supply conditions over time. ^[16]

This matters because LNG is not just a “volume” story—it’s a margin story. When international prices fall faster than Henry Hub (or when shipping and liquefaction costs rise), U.S. cargo economics can tighten, especially for spot-linked volumes.

Operational noise: Freeport and Venture Global headlines

Operationally, traders are still tracking plant-level events. Reuters noted a shutdown of one liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas during the week, a reminder that unplanned outages can quickly change short-term balances. ^[17]

Separately, Reuters also pointed to small flow declines at Venture Global facilities in Louisiana in recent days (as referenced in market reporting), though overall U.S. LNG feedgas stayed near record highs. ^[18]

Big project signal: Energy Transfer pauses Lake Charles LNG

One of the most important structural stories heading into 2026 isn’t a price tick—it’s what developers are doing (or not doing) with multi‑billion-dollar export projects.

Energy Transfer said it is suspending development of its Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, citing a preference to focus capital on pipeline investments amid rising costs and fears of looming global oversupply as more LNG capacity comes online. The project had been planned at roughly 16.45 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity. ^[19]

For the market, this is a two-sided signal:

In the short-to-medium term, fewer new terminals could be supportive for U.S. balances if demand growth from LNG slows.
In the long term, it highlights how financing and cost inflation can gatekeep the next wave of LNG—potentially preventing the most bearish oversupply scenarios from materializing on schedule.

Qatar keeps the long game in focus

While some U.S. capacity ambitions are being reassessed, Qatar’s expansion narrative keeps moving.

Italy’s Saipem won an offshore EPCI contract from QatarEnergy LNG (in partnership with China’s COOEC), with the overall contract value around $4 billion and Saipem’s share around $3.1 billion. The work is described on a multi‑year timeline, with offshore installation operations expected later in the decade. ^[20]

The strategic message is clear: Qatar’s North Field-linked expansion remains one of the most consequential supply additions expected for the second half of the 2020s.

For traders and policymakers, that raises the central question: Will demand growth (Europe’s LNG reliance, Asia’s industrial/power growth, and new uses like data center power demand) keep pace with the supply wave? ^[21]

Europe: policy is tightening even as prices stay calm

European gas is increasingly shaped by policy—and by the reality that LNG is now a structural pillar of supply.

EU moves closer to a Russian gas phase-out

The European Parliament approved the bloc’s plan to phase out Russian gas imports, including halting Russian LNG by end‑2026 and ending pipeline gas imports by end‑September 2027. Reuters reported Russia accounted for about 12% of EU gas imports as of October 2025, down sharply from pre‑2022 levels. ^[22]

This is a long-duration bullish factor for LNG infrastructure and flexible supply—but it doesn’t automatically translate into high near-term prices if weather is mild and inventories are adequate.

Methane regulation becomes a trade friction point

Another European factor that could influence LNG flows—and compliance costs—is methane policy.

Reuters reported the U.S. asked the EU to exempt U.S. oil and gas imports from aspects of the EU’s methane emissions regulation until 2035, framing it as a trade barrier and warning of implementation challenges given complex U.S. supply chains and commingled molecules. The EU, however, signaled the legislation stands while discussing implementation pathways. ^[23]

For market participants, methane rules can affect contract structures, certification practices, and potentially the attractiveness of certain supply sources over time—particularly in a world where Europe is expected to remain a premium LNG buyer for years.

Trading infrastructure: TTF’s financial market is getting bigger

Even as prices soften, European gas market activity is expanding. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported record trading volumes for benchmark Dutch TTF contracts in 2025 and said it is preparing to extend trading hours to better align with global cycles, reflecting how Europe’s gas pricing is increasingly connected to Henry Hub and Asian LNG benchmarks. ^[24]

East Mediterranean gas: Israel’s Leviathan deal reshapes Egypt’s supply picture

A major regional headline this week came from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Reuters reported Israel approved what it described as its largest-ever natural gas export deal—valued around $34.67 billion—to supply Egypt with gas from the Leviathan field. The deal referenced roughly 130 bcm of gas through 2040 (or until the contract value is met), and it comes as Egypt works through an energy crunch linked to domestic production declines and rising demand. ^[25]

Why this matters beyond the region:

Egypt’s ability to secure reliable pipeline gas can influence whether it becomes a steadier LNG exporter again—or remains a net importer during tight periods.
The deal underscores how “regional pipeline gas” can still compete with LNG in certain corridors, even as Europe globalizes gas through LNG.

Australia’s domestic gas debate highlights a global tension

Natural gas is increasingly global: LNG prices and flows often ripple back into domestic energy bills.

In Australia, policy debate remains active over how to protect local consumers and industry from LNG-linked price pressures. Reporting highlighted concerns around high gas prices and scrutiny of mechanisms meant to ensure adequate domestic supply. ^[26]

For global readers, the takeaway is broader than Australia: countries that are large LNG exporters often face political pressure to “decouple” domestic pricing from international markets—especially when cost-of-living becomes a dominant theme.

Forecasts for 2026: what major outlooks are saying now

Forecasting gas is notoriously difficult because weather dominates and LNG is both a demand source and a volatility amplifier. Still, several major outlooks released or highlighted in December frame today’s debate: Is the recent pullback a pause—or a reset lower?

EIA: firmer 2026, strong LNG exports, and winter volatility risk

In its December Short‑Term Energy Outlook messaging, EIA forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices at $3.56/mmBtu for 2025 and $4.01/mmBtu for 2026, and described winter conditions putting upward pressure on prices—projecting a winter average around $4.30/mmBtu in its forecast narrative. EIA also projected U.S. LNG gross exports rising to ~16 bcfd in 2026 (from ~15 bcfd in 2025). ^[27]

Enverus: the winter spike looked “premature”

Enverus Intelligence Research projected Henry Hub prices averaging about $3.80/mmBtu through winter before softening to around $3.60/mmBtu in summer 2026, arguing the earlier run-up had gotten ahead of fundamentals amid expectations for a mild winter and continued Lower 48 supply growth. ^[28]

Goldman: higher 2026 pricing assumptions than the market is signaling today

Reuters reporting on Goldman’s outlook included expectations that in 2026 Dutch TTF could average around €29/MWh and U.S. natural gas around $4.60/mmBtu, illustrating how some bank forecasts still lean above what today’s softened winter curve implies. ^[29]

Kpler: storage trajectory and LNG imports will decide Europe’s end‑winter comfort

Kpler’s European natural gas outlook suggested EU‑27 storage could end the 2025–26 winter around 36% full, with the estimate sensitive to LNG import expectations and pipeline inflows—another reminder that Europe’s balance is increasingly an LNG scheduling story. ^[30]

What to watch next week (and why it matters)

Natural gas is entering a period where small changes in weather models can drive outsized moves. Here’s what professionals are watching right now:

Late‑December / early‑January weather revisions
With forecasts currently leaning warm, any shift toward sustained cold could quickly reprice the curve—especially given how aggressively winter risk premium has been compressed. ^[31]
LNG plant reliability and feedgas trends
Feedgas is near record highs, but events like the Freeport train outage show how quickly balances can change. ^[32]
U.S. storage withdrawals vs. expectations
The market has been pricing “comfortable” storage conditions; surprises (either direction) will matter more with the curve already leaning bearish. ^[33]
Policy signals in Europe
Russian gas phase-out timelines and methane compliance negotiations are structural, but they can influence contracting, LNG sourcing, and long-run price formation. ^[34]
Final investment decisions and cancellations in LNG
The Energy Transfer pause is a reminder: not all proposed LNG capacity becomes real, and that uncertainty is itself a key driver of 2026–2028 expectations. ^[35]