New York, Jan 29, 2026, 17:10 EST — After-hours
- U.S. natural gas futures edged higher as traders absorbed new storage figures alongside ongoing supply disruptions caused by storms
- The market remains unsettled following the February contract’s volatile close and the switch to March as the new benchmark
- Attention shifts to the pace of production normalization and the projections from early-February weather models
U.S. natural gas futures climbed Thursday, continuing a volatile bounce following this week’s storm-induced price jump. The March Henry Hub contract gained 15.4 cents, or 4.1%, settling at $3.886 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), according to CME data. (CME Group)
This shift is crucial as gas trading seeks a stable clearing price following a spike in cold-weather demand and supply hiccups that sent cash and near-term futures into wild fluctuations. Though temperatures have softened in parts of the country, utilities continue to pull heavily from inventories, while traders remain cautious about potential weather changes.
There’s a technical snag here: the market switched to March as the front-month contract, the closest delivery date that takes over as the main benchmark once February expires. This roll can exaggerate price moves, making it seem like “the price” shifted more than it actually did, especially following a squeeze.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said working gas in storage stood at 2,823 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Jan. 23, marking a net withdrawal of 242 Bcf from the previous week. Bcf remains the standard measure for U.S. inventory levels. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Supply remains a key factor. National natural gas production dropped roughly 12 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by Wednesday — about 10% of U.S. output — due to “freeze-offs,” according to Wood Mackenzie analysts. These freeze-offs occur when cold weather freezes water and liquids in wells and equipment, leading to shut-ins. (Reuters)
The storm even dragged the U.S. back into the import market. BP and Shell shipped liquefied natural gas from Trinidad to North American terminals, including Elba Island in Georgia and Cove Point in Maryland — both usually exporters — as spot prices surged and domestic output dropped, according to LSEG ship-tracking data. “This shows the problem with the Jones Act,” said Jason Feer of shipping firm Poten and Partners, pointing to U.S. laws limiting shipping between American ports. (Reuters)
The shift from February to March contracts on Wednesday sheds light on the volatility. The February contract closed at $7.460 per mmBtu, whereas the March contract—the more actively traded one—hovered near $3.854, Bloomberg reported. Thin liquidity near the expiry likely intensified the price swings. (Bloomberg)
Natural gas-related stocks followed the broader market trends. EQT ended the day 0.7% higher at $56.33 but slipped roughly 0.4% in after-hours trading. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG), an ETF tied to gas futures, hovered near $15.06 and inched up after hours, per Investing.com data. (Investing)
Beyond the U.S., demand for LNG is intensifying as Europe’s gas storage levels drop sharply. On Jan. 26, European inventories slid to just 44% of capacity—far below the 10-year average of 58%, according to Reuters’ analysis of AGSI data. This shortfall is ramping up the urgency to secure LNG supplies ahead of the refill season. (Reuters)
The downside scenario is straightforward: if temperatures ease and freeze-offs reverse swiftly, supply could surge and prices drop just as fast. The market has seen this play out multiple times this winter.
Traders now turn to updated early-February temperature forecasts and the upcoming U.S. storage report, set for Feb. 5 at 10:30 a.m. EST. (Ycharts)
